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Five Lessons Learned from the Raptors' Daunting Cavs, Warriors Back-To-Back

The Raptors showed well against the NBA's premier teams on the most impossible back-to-back imaginable. Here's what we took away from it.
Photo by Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Raptors dropped both ends of the most impossible back-to-back imaginable. The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Golden State Warriors, in consecutive days, is some Blofeld-level villainy from the schedule-makers. It is difficult to imagine a tougher 28-hour stretch that wouldn't have raised too giant a red flag for the league's schedule-makers—visiting the defending champions one night and returning home to host the title favorites is scenario enough for even the most legendary of outfits. That the Raptors are merely very good rather than historically so rendered them an underdog in each installment.

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As far as 0-2 stretches go, this was on the better end of the spectrum. No, the Raptors didn't come away with an upset in either game, and the franchise has grown past the point of moral victories (those, I'm told, are for minor-league coaches). Losing to the two best teams in the league by a total of 10 points, though, is indicative of a good team, confirming the Raptors' perch as a near-contender firmly entrenched in the league's second tier. That's a great place to be given where the franchise has been in the past, and the Raptors showed well in affirming themselves a semi-serious threat (or at least, an annoyance) to the league's elite on a given night.

For perspective on how losing these two games by a combined 10 points informs the perceived quality of the Raptors, consider Basketball Reference's Adjusted Net Rating, which controls margin of victory for strength of opponent. Losing any two games at this point in the year will hurt given the limited sample of games, but the Raptors fell only from fifth to eighth, dropping from an adjusted net rating of 6.46 to 5.25. The losses will probably look even better in retrospect later, when the Cavaliers and Warriors assume their places closer to the top of the rankings. There's a lot of noise so early on, but the message is pretty clear: Playing the league's elite teams tough is a good indicator of perceived quality, which is a good indicator of future success.

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In that sense, the Raptors didn't prove anything unless there were still some doubting their relevance in the league's pecking order. And the team surely isn't taking any solace in an 0-2 outcome. And that's fine. It's good, even—it speaks to where the Raptors are now that moral victories are met with eye rolls. They see these as losses. But in the words of Dave Chappelle quoting the Dalai Lama, when you lose, don't lose the lesson.

Here are five lessons the Raptors can take away from this ludicrous back-to-back.

The Raptors Need To Force Turnovers

This is a lot easier said than done, but the league's elite offenses are simply too effective in the halfcourt to let them set up every time down the floor, and the Raptors' defense isn't quite at the level to be comfortable stopping them. (And no, "they need to play better defense" is not a lesson to be learned here.) The Raptors' identity isn't one of a hyper-aggressive outfit, and there are risks to jumping passing lanes or living inside of jerseys that head coach Dwane Casey may not be comfortable with. But the Raptors' defenders have it in them, ranking seventh in opponent turnover percentage early on.

When you've had enough of Drake Night. Photo by Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

The value of those thwarted possessions was on display against Cleveland, when the Raptors scored 26 points off 17 turnovers, 11 of them of the live-ball variety. Golden State wasn't as willing to play freely, and the Raptors managed just 10 points off 12 turnovers, even with a good portion (eight) coming during live action. The opponent is going to dictate how many opportunities the Raptors have to a degree, but the team's entire stable of guards does well to cause opponent miscues.

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That's something the Raptors may want to make a part of their defensive identity moving forward, since the personnel allows for it and their base defense just can't handle this level of opposition with regularity yet. If they can invite chaos playing a little smaller and faster, there could be a benefit at the other end, too.

The Raptors Can Push The Pace And Might Want To Explore Doing So

Casey has always favored slower-paced teams, and the Raptors have never ranked outside of the bottom 10 while playing under him. That's entirely justified, given that on the defensive side of the ball, you largely want opponents to be grinding out possessions once they're in the halfcourt, and because the Raptors' offensive identity is that of a plodding, matchup-seeking, one-on-one attack. Neither of those things are likely to change in a macro sense, and the Raptors will almost surely rank in the 20s for pace once again.

The last two nights showed that it doesn't have to be the case, though. The Raptors might be uncomfortable in an up-tempo shootout with teams like the Cavaliers and Warriors, but if nothing else, the Raptors showed they can score at breakneck paces. Toronto scored 117.8 points per-100 possessions (PPC) over those two losses, playing at a pace of 102.2 possessions per-48 minutes. That's far beyond what the Raptors are accustomed to, and while it won't help them beat the Cavaliers and Warriors (clearly), it's illuminating for when they match up against lesser opponents.

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The Raptors have horses, as it were, and young players like Terrence Ross, Norman Powell, and Pascal Siakam are thriving on the run. Toronto uncharacteristically ranks seventh in fast-break points per-game right now and third in transition efficiency, per NBA.com. Injuries and roster composition have forced Casey's hand when it comes to playing more youthful, and he's embraced trying out some funky lineups as a result. He should continue to do so, and encourage his athletes to make life uncomfortable for opposing defenses.

Starting Lineup Will Eventually Need To Change

Siakam has been worlds better out of the gates than anyone had any business expecting from the No. 27 pick. He's being thrust into a role that few rookies, let alone ones who were considered longer-term prospects, have to perform in. He's been incredibly active and energetic on defense, leaks out in transition, and is eager to finish in the paint when the opportunity presents itself. He's even held his own guarding names like Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, and LeBron James in the past two days. Siakam's been great.

Is it time to get Patrick Patterson in the starting lineup? Yes. Photo by Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

That doesn't change the fact that the Raptors would still be better off starting Patrick Patterson. Moving Siakam to the second unit might be a little risky given that group's occasional lack of spacing and the amount of youth that would be in one group, but to the earlier points, Siakam fits with the potential identity of that group, and he'd get to learn on the fly against opposing bench bigs rather than the league's elite. Really, though, the move is more about Patterson, for whom both data and logic have long suggested should start.

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Patterson isn't even playing well right now, and the team's been 10.4 PPC with him on the court. The current starting lineup has been outscored by 7.4 PPC in 93 minutes together, while Patterson with that group has rolled opponents by 14.6 PPC in 40 minutes. There are myriad reasons why it makes sense, all of which have been discussed to death. This isn't new—it happened all of last year with Patterson and Luis Scola, too—and it forces Patterson, averaging 30.5 minutes, to play incredibly long stretches without a break to end each half, a suboptimal usage pattern.

This is not a big deal in the short term. It's not, I concede that. But last year, the Raptors were forced into making an unfamiliar change in the postseason, because when the leverage of each minute is ratcheted up, you can't really be spotting the Cavaliers points to start the game.

Mobile Big Tops The List Of Trade Targets

Channing Frye and Draymond Green continue to be major problems for the Raptors' centers, to the point that Casey more or less abandoned playing a traditional pivot for long stretches the last two nights. Casey's trust in Jonas Valanciunas' ability to hedge in the pick-and-roll seems to be back at a nadir. Lucas Nogueira, while playing well of late and posting the team's best plus-minus Wednesday, struggled to find a groove chasing bigs around the outside, and Jakob Poeltl, the best long-term solution, maybe isn't there yet.

JV remains such an intriguing part of the Raptors equation. Photo by Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Raptors don't need to make a trade, not just for the sake of making one, if a reasonable deal doesn't present itself. Internal growth and the return of Jared Sullinger might be all they get. But if they hit the market, a more mobile big who can defend the Fryes and Loves and Greens of the world would clearly be atop Casey's shopping list. If the goal is to put the team in a position to beat Cleveland, it should be atop Jeff Weltman's, too.

Jonas Valanciunas Needs To Rediscover Miami Form

Whether or not the Raptors can upgrade their depth, Valanciunas figures to be a major part of any playoff series, and he simply has to punish opponents for playing smaller and stretchier. That's not only a Valanciunas matter, but a Casey one—after a middling showing against Cleveland, Valanciunas was making the Warriors pay for staying small, but Casey opted for the defensive side of the trade-off that Valanciunas presents. Not only did Casey sit Valanciunas for the bulk of the second half, he didn't even return him to the game when Curry—the primary defensive issue for the Lithuanian—sat, or when the Warriors played David West, a big Valanciunas can track and keep up with.

Valanciunas needs to be better defensively, too, of course. Casey isn't offering these votes of non-confidence for no reason, and it's not as if the Raptors were dominating when he was on the floor (he was a minus-4 in each game). It's on Valanciunas to show that he's worth tilting the center matchup for, and that the edge it provides an opposing offense doesn't have to be as pronounced as it was this week. Otherwise, the Raptors better get a lot more comfortable playing without a center, as they've been clobbered in 35 minutes without one this year.