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The Rangers' Early Elimination Kickstarts Their Last, Best Chance at a Title

There's no explaining how Texas lost the way it did against the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALDS.
Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

There are brutal losses, and then there are batterings. The Texas Rangers deserve a perverse dollop of credit for blending the two in three short games of the American League Division Series against the Toronto Blue Jays.

No one denied that there was a script for how the Rangers could lose this series. The roster was pockmarked from the jump, and even after the front office credibly paved it over at the trade deadline, the retrofitting could not conceal how overwhelmingly dependent Texas had become on white-knuckling close contests (with an incredible 36-11 record this year in one-run games). That approach works until it doesn't, which made the extra-innings series-ender a fitting cap to this season's narrative—the age-old tale of living and dying by the same blade.

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There is, however, no tidy explanation for the first 18 innings of the series. No team that won 95 games, with this much roster balance, should lose this comprehensively. And yet the Rangers became aluminum siding in the face of a hailstorm, pelted unrelentingly from all directions until they were dented beyond recognition.

Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels, the dual aces who also happen to be Texas's only above-average starting pitchers, conceded 11 runs in a little more than eight innings pitched. The offense squeaked out a paltry three runs and, in Game 2 alone, stranded 13 runners. The Texas running game was so hamstrung by Russell Martin that the Rangers only attempted a single steal, by Elvis Andrus, who was thrown out. The total number of walks (three) was less than a quarter of the strikeouts (13). It was cruelly fitting that Game 3 was decided ultimately by a passed ball and a throwing error: defense, to that point, was the only thing left that hadn't fallen apart.

Next year's Rangers will mostly resemble this one's, give or take a few touchups. Acquiring Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Beltran, and Jeremy Jeffress at the deadline was general manager Jon Daniels' crossing of the Rubicon, a tacit admission that Texas has until the expiration of Darvish's contract at the end of next season to win a World Series. That dream is still attainable: Texas still has Darvish, along with Hamels, Adrian Beltre, and Rougned Odor. Andrus turned in his most promising season in years, and right fielder Nomar Mazara is the team's next great hitter. The Rangers could write a dissertation on bullpen volubility but they ended the year with more effective arms than they could carry on the postseason roster, and every one of them remains under contract. Joey Gallo is just 22 and Jurickson Profar, 23; either or both could find playing time or become currency for the next round of trade deadline triage.

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Game 2 notwithstanding, Texas's window to win a title expires alongside Yu Darvish's contract. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Texas will be active in free agency, mostly because it must. Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez are both free agents, and it's tough to imagine the Rangers letting both of their salvaged outfielders walk; they are without a safety net in center field after having shipped Lewis Brinson to Milwaukee as freight for Lucroy and Jeffress. Mitch Moreland can also walk and the club should let him; the cost of doing so, however, is finally offering Gallo the reins at first base—something they've been reluctant to try—or importing a replacement. Beltran is more complicated: a soon-to-be 40-year-old who was brilliant prior to Texas acquiring him and only competent since, but someone who nevertheless brought coveted lineup balance against left-handed pitching. Like Desmond, Beltran was invaluable in the clubhouse; also like Desmond, a financial commitment to him is one more deal on the books toward an aging player, something the club has several of between Hamels, Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo, and the remainder of Prince Fielder's onerous deal.

Texas needs starting pitching, because they are still the Rangers and because Derek Holland, Martin Perez, and the probably departed Colby Lewis are still who they are, too. Procuring it is another matter; this year's dreadful free-agent market is an unappetizing bazaar of delicate bodies (Rich Hill, Hisashi Iwakuma), rudimentary skills (Jeremy Hellickson), half-cocked reclamation projects (Ivan Nova, Andrew Cashner), and Bartolo Colon. The thinking goes that, with Darvish and Hamels on hand, none of them need to do much beyond soaking up innings and starting a lower-leverage playoff matchup. But Toronto exposed just how little ace pitching truly guarantees, which means that Texas shouldn't skimp if they can avoid it.

How much they can afford is another matter. Lucroy and Darvish are among the very best in the game at historically poor positions for Texas, and their one remaining year of team control has wedged Daniels into a precarious position. Scrimping this winter jeopardizes what may be the Rangers' last, best chance at winning a title with its current core. Overspending risks pushing one or both out the door, which, in Darvish's case, could end the Rangers' stint as a contending team. Few GMs are shrewder than Daniels, and even fewer meld those wits with a big-market budget, but the stakes are higher than ever as the pool of outside reinforcements is at its most shallow.

If that sounds ominous, well, it is. Texas has motored into the last two postseasons with months of momentum, only to have it all extinguished in a matter of days. Few teams are more familiar with how it feels to have its fortunes reversed so quickly, and so perhaps the Rangers turn the tables in 2017. Re-signing Desmond, promoting Gallo, and augmenting the rotation will get them where they need to be on paper. The rest begins when the regular season ends, when those rosters unspool and the nonsensical becomes commonplace.

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