NBA Trades That Make Too Much Sense: Eric Bledsoe to Dallas

The offseason is trade season in the NBA. A blizzard of transactions will take place over the next few months as organizations all over the league try and reshape themselves, improve their personnel, and/or alter their directions. To prepare, over the next few days and weeks we'll propose and analyze a few hypothetical trade ideas that may (or should) go down at some point before the 2017-18 season tips off. Here's deal number one: Dallas Mavericks get Eric Bledsoe
Phoenix Suns get Dallas' first-round pick in 2018 (top-three protected), swap rights in 2019 draft For this trade to happen, Dallas would first need to decline Dirk Nowitzki's $25 million team option and convince him to either take their room exception or any leftover cap space available after Bledsoe's incoming $14.5 million deal and Nerlens Noel's cap hold are accounted for. That's quite the pay cut, but Nowitzki hasn't shied away from similar financial sacrifices in the past. And as he approaches 39 years old, this is the type of deal that can bump Dallas back into the playoffs as a worrisome headache for elite teams in the Western Conference. Let's start here: Bledsoe is very good. He's 27 years old, smack dab in the middle of his prime, coming off a season in which he averaged 21.1 points and 6.3 assists with the highest free-throw rate and PER of his career. He's a masterful pick-and-roll operator who finished in the 93rd percentile scoring against defenders who chased him above the screen, per Synergy Sports. As the lead ball-handler in lineups that feature a rolling Noel or a popping Nowitzki/Harrison Barnes, aided by lethal spot-up shooters such as Wesley Matthews and Seth Curry dotting the three-point line, Dallas' attack should easily sniff the top 10 after stumbling all the way down to 28th in offensive rating after the All-Star break last season. Bledsoe's range has been unreliable—he's a career 33.4 percent three-point shooter—but he also made 38.2 percent of his pull-up threes in 2014 and shot 40.3 percent two years later, before injuries derailed each campaign. In Dallas, he'd add a good dose of athleticism to a roster that's slowly shifting into "competitive rebuild" mode, potentially even allowing a more uptempo offense that better suits most of the team (but not Nowitzki). On the defensive end, Bledsoe and Matthews could form the best defensive backcourt in the entire league, solving one of Dallas' primary weaknesses over the last few seasons. Bledsoe is a hound on the ball when he wants to be (and is healthy), and the Mavericks could theoretically adopt a more switch-happy scheme when Nowitzki isn't on the court. Noel, Barnes, Matthews and Bledsoe is a pretty flexible foursome.

Of course, this trade isn't perfect. Bledsoe isn't one of the 10 best players at his position in large part because he can't stay on the floor. Even though he's only due $29.5 million over the next two seasons, meniscus surgery feels like an annual event, and surrendering a first-round pick for an injury-prone point guard who relies on springy legs is dicey. On the other hand, under the parameters of this particular deal Dallas can still hold onto its first-round pick in this year's draft: the ninth overall selection. That's meaningful, and pending what they do with it, Bledsoe can serve as a bridge to the post-Nowitzki era, when Barnes, Noel (assuming they re-sign him this summer), and said pick become the face of the franchise. Could the new-and-improved Mavericks beat the Golden State Warriors next season? Um, probably not. But assuming Bledsoe stays healthy, it's likely they'd leapfrog past the Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Portland Trail Blazers. With the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers facing an uncertain summer, it's even conceivable for Dallas to wind up with home-court advantage in next year's postseason. Bledsoe is that talented, and should be his best self in a competitive environment surrounded by shooters, veterans, and top-notch coaching. From Phoenix's point of view, this deal is pretty straightforward. The Suns are rebuilding, Bledsoe makes no sense within their current timeline, and unloading his contract while there's still two guaranteed years left on it makes a ton of sense. It's possible they can get more in return by dangling him on the open market, but the number of teams that A) need a starting point guard, and B) are in position to win a playoff series next season can be counted on one hand. The Houston Rockets and Utah Jazz could show some interest. Maybe the Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls, too. But the Mavericks have an immediate hole at the position, and may be willing to mortgage even more of their future so long as they get to keep this year's pick. Add Dallas' protected pick to a collection of assets that already includes Devin Booker, Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss, all their own picks, a top-7 protected first-round pick in 2018 and an unprotected first-round pick in 2021 from the Miami Heat, and Phoenix can either build from the ground up or swing for the fences the next time a star becomes available. Dealing Bledsoe for a future pick (and swap rights in 2019) also improves Phoenix's cap flexibility this summer and next. It's a win-win for them and the Mavericks; one organization gets better today while the other further establishes itself as a team for tomorrow.