Indonesia Is Worried About Where the Maute Militants Will Go Next

The Indonesian military remains worried about potential spillover from fighting in the southern Philippines as Filipino security forces intensified efforts this week to push ISIS-linked militants from Marawi by the start of the Eid al-Fitr holiday weekend.

There is a real concern in Indonesia that members of the Maute rebel group will flee south toward the neighboring provinces of North Kalimantan and North Sulawesi once the Philippines military regains control of the city of Marawi.

"The militants might flee the Philippines and be forced to cross the border to Indonesia," Colonel Didik Krisyanto told the state-run Antara News Agency.

Indonesian jihadists already make up a sizable percentage of the Maute group's foreign fighters and there's a long history of ties between Islamist militants in the two countries. It's realistic to worry that ISIS-linked militants in the southern Philippines could soon become a regional threat, according to experts.

The Indonesian military has already sent additional military and police personnel to North Sulawesi and Gorontalo earlier this month. It's now stationed three Sukhoi fighter jets at North Sulawesi's Tarakan Air Force Base in an apparent show of force.

The Sukhoi jets will remain in North Kalimantan for at least a month. The fighter jets will join joint patrols of the Sulu Sea by the navies of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia. The joint task force will also share intelligence as the three countries rush to address the growing threat of ISIS-linked militant groups in the region.

"This is a warning so we can be ready to address this together because there are sleeper cells that are in each of our countries," Indonesian TNI chief Gen. Gatot Murmatyo told CNN. "With this trilateral cooperation it will ease the exchange of information because the speed and accuracy of information is very much needed to put in place measures and anticipate the possible escape of [militants] out of Marawi."

But some defense experts questioned whether the military was relying too heavily on traditional weaponry to combat the potential spread of Maute rebels.

"The Sukhoi are part of a coordinated patrol," Connie Kundalini Bakrie, a defense expert, told VICE Indonesia. "But I think the government should rely on intelligence and communications on how to disrupt militants operations, for example by jamming their radio, as well."

The fighter jets, while a clear show of force, weren't an effective a tool for stopping the flow of fleeing rebels, Connie explained. Sukhoi jets are typically used to attack rebel-held cities or heavy artillery like the gun-mounted Hilux pickup trucks used by ISIS militants in Syria and Iraq, not small groups of rebels.

"The government should beef-up the maritime patrols and deployed the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) Squadron," Connie said, explaining that covert operations were far more effective in combating the kinds of terrorist cells found in Indonesia.

"It's all about air and cyber surveillance and other intelligence operations," she said.