The Days
Nigel Farage will call various media outlets to a pontoon overlooking the Thames, where he will be flanked by a gaggle of white-haired men, their faces glowing with yellow teeth and bright pink spider veins. They'll cheer and clap and pop Champagne corks into the brown water when Big Ben tolls 11.
The evening will be marked by an extended news special hosted by David Dimbleby, during which Jeremy Vine will trounce up and down some virtual white cliffs of Dover detailing the various guarantees and compromises the government’s negotiations have secured.
The 30th of March, 2019 will be a Saturday. Once the blue and yellow confetti has been swept from the cobbles, and the chained centrists removed from the gates of Downing Street, very little will have practically changed. Legally, the UK will behave almost exactly as it did while it was in the European Union.Martin Trybus, Professor of European Law and Policy at the University of Birmingham, explains that the UK will have had to transfer all European law before we exit. Some of these laws are "directives", which already have to be transposed into UK law, and then all the other EU laws will be incorporated into UK law under the "great repeal bill", in order to avoid the legal vacuum that would be left if we simply opted out. "At the moment, the stance is that everything in March will become UK law," Trybus clarifies, "so in March, April and May things will stay the same."Face-painted Remainers will line Whitehall, waving EU flags and lit flares. Ian Botham will light a cigar.
The Weeks
The UK is booed during their Eurovision Song Contest performance – Hannah Spearitt from S Club singing an original composition called "This Time (We're Gonna Party)" – going on to receive zero points across the board.
Eddie Izzard hosts a series of 'Newsnight' segments in which he visits Brexit-voting areas to see if the people who wanted out are happy with what they got. This mainly consists of him trying to teach market traders in Wigan to speak French. An episode of 'Question Time' ends in chaos when a Lib Dem plant in the audience sets fire to his blue passport and is rugby tackled to the ground by an ex-Marine.
Manufacturing may be one of the first areas to experience obvious difficulties. Industry will likely have cooled anyway, after the years of uncertainty following the referendum. Many factories may have moved to the continent, and many smaller producers (particularly in the car industry) may have folded altogether, lacking the resources to fully prepare for the shift. From that point, the struggle for the UK will be keeping up.As Britain begins to fall behind or diverge from EU regulations, UK products will no longer be suitable for the European market – a problem, considering that’s where we sold 43 percent of our exports in 2016. Factories will, in theory, have to choose between running two production lines – one to UK specifications and another for the EU (which would increase manufacturing costs) – or simply producing things to European standards, as though leaving the EU had never happened. As Martin Trybus puts it: "Does that mean I [a UK producer] can stay in the supply chain? Or will I be pushed out by Belgian or Spanish competitors, who are saying, 'Don’t take these Brits with their strange laws, take me instead.'"In the event of a no-deal, British exporters could face an additional cost of £4.5 billion in EU tariffs. This will either damage the car manufacturing industry beyond repair, or – as with Nissan – mean the government picks up the bill in order to keep the factories on side, at the cost of public services.Wetherspoons announces an Independence IPA, which is available for £1 a pint before 5PM every weekday. It’s an aromatic, piney-tasting beer that goes down far too easily.
The Months
Following the rising food costs, a new budget supermarket called "BRIT SAVE" opens, offering a “five pound weekly shop” to its customers. It closes within six weeks when its fishcakes are found to contain pork rind and pieces of metal.
Nick Clegg, Richard Branson and JK Rowling are involved in the launch of a brand new political party called Forward. They commit themselves to returning the UK to a European Union that they claim is willing to welcome them. They promise a vision for a Europe that works on a local level. The launch takes place in the National Portrait Gallery, alongside an online campaign featuring Clegg and the presenters of 'The Last Leg' recreating the video for Take That’s "I Want You Back”. Alastair Campbell plays his bagpipes.
As the weeks turn to months, in some respects the UK will slowly begin to function properly again. Factories that have been closed for weeks will reopen, and borders will ease up as makeshift solutions are found. Yet, as the country’s finances are distressed and strained, the NHS will be put under pressures unlike anything it is currently experiencing."That’s a real concern, as the NHS is already operating beyond the limits of its capabilities," explains Helen McKenna, senior policy adviser at healthcare charity the King’s Fund. "It’s currently not meeting many of the waiting times and performance targets expected at a national level, such as the four-hour A&E target. If Brexit results in funding being further squeezed, then that could be really detrimental to services."Boris Johnson leaves government and moves to America to work as a pundit for Fox News and begin writing a novel set in colonial Hawaii.
The Years
Moving to Europe is becoming the new moving to London. The typical professional works a stint in Lisbon, Berlin or Brussels, before returning to the English countryside for their retirement. Young people who can't afford the visa stay in the UK drag-racing, drinking and watching "Parlez Vous" – a Netflix sitcom about a haughty French exchange student who ends up being transferred to a council estate in Barking after an administrative error. Johnny Vegas plays somebody's dad.
Scotland has left the Union. Tony Blair is campaigning for the colonisation of the moon. Theresa May is still the Prime Minister.
Over time, as automation becomes even more prevalent – with 800 million jobs forecast as in danger by 2030 globally – UK factory workers with limited protections will be easy to lay-off. Britain is already a tax haven of sorts – with loose regulation and offshore territories – but a Conservative government would be free to embolden this status in the pursuit of competitiveness. The Institute of Fiscal Studies estimates that poverty will soar, with the number of children in relative poverty reaching 37 percent by 2022.Dr Carmel suggests the UK should expect more in the way of precarious migrant workers in the years after Brexit. With permanent residency a complicated and expensive process, long-term skilled applicants will likely search for work elsewhere. The demand for unskilled labour will, however, remain high in the food and farming industries. "From thinking about how similar sorts of systems work in other places in the world, [where they] have a highly restricted migration regime but a relatively high demand for very cheap precarious migrant labour, you tend to get a lot of irregular work," she explains. "You get a lot of people doing what you might call – what I prefer to call – 'work arounds'. That just means that people will come backwards and forwards. There will be sort of grey areas where people will sort of work around those restrictions."The UK may gradually regain productivity levels, thanks to its share of working-age people in comparison to other G7 economies, and over time new international trading relationships will be established. Yet, the drag of the post-exit years will be felt, and much of the UK’s prosperity will depend on how open it remains to international investment and talent.All of the experts interviewed for this piece agree that the years after the 29th of March could also present opportunities. In healthcare, governments would have the freedom to go further on issues like obesity or smoking. Immigration upheaval could mean an already defunct system is finally given the overhaul it needs – made fairer and less complex. The UK no longer contributing to the EU’s climate change targets mean that the rest of the member states are forced to do more to meet their goals. There could be opportunities for increased employment rights, or radical responses to the automation of industry. None of these are very likely under the current government, but they are possible.However, what comes first will likely prove a decade of economic hardship and unprecedented stress on public services in the UK. Precarious employment will rise, and those who are employed full time could be subject to increasingly little protection. The NHS, if not drastically tended to, could inch ever closer towards privatisation – although Helen McKenna insists public support for it remains so strong it would take a "very brave government" to preside over its complete dismantling. Challenges that already face the country – housing, social care, transport – will be at best ignored, or worse exacerbated.What none of this accounts for is the real-world trickle-down, as a generation – the children of the 2010s – falls through the cracks. What happens when, like now, you can’t afford to buy a house, and you can’t afford to go to university, but you also can’t get a hospital bed, or afford a weekly shop? Given the building sense of historic, generational resentment, it’s hard not to see smoke and smashed glass on the horizon. The fallout of March the 29th will reshape Britain in many ways we can’t predict, but we can be sure that the ultimate cost will be high.As Martin Trybus puts it: "I think, in a few years' time, we will look back on these years as years when we lost a lot of time."@a_n_g_u_sNobody can remember the last time they ate a good orange.