An Idiot's Guide to Tonight's Big Brexit Vote

There are 12 amendments that MPs are due to vote on at 7PM tonight. Twelve! That's as many amendments as Jesus had disciples. That's twice as many amendments as there are present and former members of the Sugababes.

This is MPs' last chance to shift the track lines of the Brexit process, so every rival sub-sect is trying to move the debate their way. But it's not all or nothing: remember that more than one amendment can pass, but each one that does will get stapled onto the next phase of Brexit. Remember too that not every single one will even be voted on. The Speaker, John Bercow, has to call your amendment first – so only four or five will actually be selected.

Every pack needs a joker, so north London MP Stella wants a "citizens' assembly" to take control of the Brexit process. This is modelled on something that happened in Ireland, before last year’s abortion referendum. We select 300 randoms from the population, hand the keys to the thing over to them and wash our hands of it, like if LBC callers were real, and not just RADA-trained actors reading off monologues penned by ITV cop show writers.

This appalling idea is now backed by no less than two washed-up 90s stars: Damon Albarn and Gordon Brown.

Chances of getting though: About as much as Paul Joseph Watson becoming the next Pope, but with the same morbid curiosity value in seeing both play out.

If May’s deal fails again, then this amendment calls for six days to be set aside so that Parliament can take control of the process. In other words, Dominic Grieve wants to shuck off the past 450 years of British parliamentary protocol and take us back to 1642, the last time Parliament imposed its will over the executive. The resulting English Civil War killed 3 percent of the population. It's a high bar, but I think we’re up to it.

Chances of getting through: High.

Wants to limit the backstop to the 31st of December, 2021, perhaps so that on New Year's Eve, beautiful glowing sparks of Derry can rain down upon Northern Ireland.

More of the best of Brexiteer brain power: 'Maybe if we time-limit the backstop?' 'But isn't the backstop already meant to be the thing that happens if we go past a time-limited deadline?' 'Okay… so what if we time-limit the time limit?' Repeat, to infinity.

Chances of getting through: Already been withdrawn.

Calls for "alternative means" to the backstop. Apart from the obvious issue with this – see above – it doesn't specify what those means are. But it would allow the PM to return to Brussels with a bit more fire in her bagpipes.

Chances of getting through: It might just be our credible way through if it did. Number 10 is whipping MPs to back it, but Jacob Rees-Mogg's Eurosceptics have rejected it, so it probably won't. The End.

If there isn't progress by late-Feb, Brexit is pushed back to the end of 2019. Backbencher Yvette Cooper is behind this one. As of this afternoon, Labour have belatedly decided to back it – but they want to reduce the timescale to "something around three months", understandably nervous about being seen as "stopping Brexit".

Chances of getting through: With Labour's backing, it's almost nailed-on. If you liked the first two years of Brexit, you'll love yet another three months on top.

"To prevent us from leaving with No Deal". If you want to drown Brexit, first you’ve got to seal the doors before you flood the chamber. Make it so no one can leave with No Deal, so we get lousier terms from the EU, so we want to leave even less. Smart. Except – it has no legal force. Dumb.

Chances of getting through: Very good. While everyone was arguing about the Cooper amendment, this one has swum through the middle.

The Lib Dems are mainly a pressure group these days. Like Countryside Alliance, but for Brexit. Their motion is calling on everyone to have another referendum. But really, if we think about it, why not just call it all off, have a biscuit and go home?

Chances of getting through: :-(

Ah, the Labour Party. Gummy, flat-faced bystanders, waving their snotted hanky at the roadside as Brexit passes them by in its big shiny car, driven by people Jeremy Corbyn beat to the leadership. Their three-part amendment just re-states their conference decisions, definitely won't be called and, frankly, they're probably glad of that.

Chances of getting through: As much as Jeremy Corbyn being elected leader of the Labour Party, huhuhuhuh…

Nope.

Wants indicative votes – Parliament to poll itself on what happens next, based on a range of scenarios, without actually committing itself to any scenarios. A lot like Grieve's. But by Hilary, you see, so he can be PM one day.

Works? Haha. No.

@gavhaynes