The Heroes Meet the Hosts: Previewing Iceland vs. France

This article originally appeared on VICE Sports UK.

It's increasingly beginning to look as though Cristiano Ronaldo might have been right. For Iceland to defend against Portugal and celebrate getting a draw, he said, was evidence of a "small mentality". Thinking like that would never win them anything.

This might not have been what he meant, but that draw against Portugal in their first game in Group F seems an awful long time ago now. And that draw has already been superseded in the list of Iceland's greatest football achievements. Iceland perhaps should have been eyeing greater things against Ronaldo and co.

A quarter-final outstrips anything Iceland could realistically have expected at this tournament. The wins over Austria and England will be remembered there for as long as football is played. Whatever happens at the World Cup and beyond, this team will have a place in Icelandic hearts. The first time – as Wales fans too young to remember 1958 or this generation of Hungarian supporters will affirm – is always the best. There is a freshness about Iceland, a lack of cynicism, a sense of joy, and that makes them dangerous – not least because the side they face in the quarter-final, France, are so beset by the pressure of being hosts. "Against France we can go relaxed and show our best," said their joint-coach Heimir Hallgrimsson, who has joined the great Colombian Francisco Maturana in the ranks of most famous football management dentists. "We don't have the pressure of the entire world that we need to win this game. We want to win but we don't absolutely need to. That is a big benefit for us."

For Iceland, football is suddenly a simple game. Their coaches, Hallgrimsson and the Swedish veteran Lars Lagerback, have selected the same 11 for each of the four games so far. They play a straight 4-4-2, sitting deep, looking to restrict space to the opponent in the final third, content that their two central defenders – Kari Arnason, who left Rotherham last year for Malmo, and Krasnodar's Ragnar Sigurdsson – will head away any crosses punted into the box from deep.

Only Sweden and Northern Ireland have had fewer shots per game than Iceland at the Euros. Nobody has had less possession. Nobody has had a lower pass success rate. Nobody has allowed the opposition more shots per game. This has been about defensive resilience, bodies flung in the way, desperate tackles, fine saves. Yes, they're well-organised, and numerous people – players, journalists and fans – have spoken about the importance of Lars Lagerback in achieving that. But this is also a team running on team spirit and desire (and a little luck).

For France, it's almost as though there are too many options. After playing a 4-2-3-1 against Albania and then making widespread changes for the game against Switzerland, Didier Deschamps returned to the set-up he'd used in the opening game for the round of 16 clash with Ireland. As in the opening game, the result was a poor first half in which France were undone by a simple long ball. And, as in the first game, a subsequent switch to 4-2-3-1 liberated Dimitri Payet and made France a more threatening side.

With N'Golo Kante suspended, it may be that Deschamps plays that 4-2-3-1 from the start, or it could be that he uses Yoann Cabaye as a straight replacement. The 4-2-3-1 is perhaps more likely, with Blaise Matuidi and Paul Pogba together in the centre and Antoine Griezmann used behind Olivier Giroud, looking to latch on to knockdowns as he did in scoring his second against Ireland. It's telling that France are the only country still left in the competition to have won more aerial duels than Iceland. Assuming Kingsley Coman has recovered from the injury that forced him off having come on as a substitute against Ireland, he will take his place on the right.

The centre-back Adil Rami is also ruled out because of two yellow cards, although there are many in France who may see that as a relief. Manchester City's much-maligned Eliaquim Mangala and the uncapped Samuel Umtiti – who recently completed his move from Lyon to Barcelona – are the two candidates to replace him, with Umtiti seemingly more likely to get the nod

The biggest concern for Iceland is fitness. Although England's cluelessness as panic set in late on meant it wasn't apparent in the previous tie, Iceland faded in the final 20 minutes against both Hungary and Austria (the late winner came very much against the run of play as Austria committed the whole team forward in search of the goal that would have kept them in the tournament). France, meanwhile, have made a habit of late goals. They're yet to score in the first half and three of their six have come in the 89th minute or later.

But those late French goals can be read two ways: on the one hand, it's positive that they've been able to find the net when they've most needed to; but, on the other, it suggests something is wrong that they keep needing them. They can't continue relying on Payet or Greizmann to do something brilliant to pull them out of danger – and this Iceland have an unnerving air of indomitability.

It hasn't gone unnoticed that Iceland's population of 330,000 is the same as that of Leicester. "I think I would like it to end like it ended with Leicester City," Hallgrimsson said. "They played on their strengths and we are trying to play on our strengths. There is the same team spirit in both teams."

For France, that should be an ominous thought.

@jonawils