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Is There Such a Thing as an 'LGBT Vote' in 2017?

LGBT people make up a large chunk of voters, but increasingly LGBT issues matter less to them.
BBC

Sitting somewhere between 1.5 and 5 percent of the British population (no one really knows), we LGBT people are a targeted voter group. We're important enough for there to be an LGBTQ hustings, which took place on Tuesday last week in London, with a B team of MPs. We're relevant enough to get a shout out on some of the party manifestos. And we're tight-knit enough to be outraged when Lib Dem leader Tim Farron refused to disclose whether he thought gay sex was a sin. We're often thought of as a "community", but when it comes to how we're voting, are LGBT voters a constituency that can be counted on by any one party?

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Last week, PinkNews published a poll of 1,012 LGBT people who used their website, asking them which party they were planning to vote for, as well as other questions about the election. The poll is far from accurate; users are self-selecting and the spread across the L-G-B-and-T might not be reflective of the population as a whole. As it stands, though, it's the best picture we currently have of LGBT votes in the UK, as polling companies don't ask about sexuality in Westminster polls. The poll found that 44 percent of respondents planned to vote Labour, versus 32 percent Conservative, in the forthcoming election. Of the same polling group, 30 percent voted Labour in the 2015 general election, while 27 percent voted Conservative. The survey also found that the Lib Dems were down 3 percent on 2015, from 17 percent to 14 percent (still surprisingly high given the Farron debacle). The Greens had dropped even lower in the PinkNews poll, from 19 percent to just 6 percent.

When you consider how other minority groups vote, these results suggest a pretty even spread between the parties; black minority ethnic Britons, for example, are thought to be 68 percent in favour of voting Labour, although this number is gradually falling.

The evenness is surprising when you consider Theresa May's history with LGBT rights is an inconsistent one. In 2010, as Home Secretary, May walked onto the set of Question Time and was met with laughs as she explained how she'd done a 360 on gay and trans rights. Yes – she had voted against the repeal of Section 28 and gay adoption, and missed four parliamentary votes on the Gender Recognition Act 2004 (which would allow trans people to legally change their gender) – but, she claimed, that was all in the past. If foster kids really were in a stick, she said on television, it would probably be alright for them to go and live in a gay household. May went on to vote in favour of gay marriage in 2013, with Lib Dem MP Lynne Featherstone later noting how the politician lobbied other Tories to vote in favour of the bill, an "unsung hero" in the fight for marriage equality.

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May's shifting stance on LGBT rights means that the community simply don't trust her. "She's certainly got an image problem with LGBT people," points out Benjamin Butterworth, the reporter at PinkNews who carried out the website's poll. The stats prove it: according to their survey, nine out of ten LGBT people said they prefer David Cameron to Theresa May. This could be because Cameron was in leadership when same-sex marriage was passed, suggests Benjamin, meaning the Conservatives were able to claim an LGBT rights victory on that front, possibly accounting for their increasing popularity among LGBT voters, despite the fact a majority of Tory MPs had actually voted against same-sex marriage, with Labour MPs predominantly voting in favour. Essentially, by giving gays the green light to walk down the aisle, the Party successfully "pinkwashed" their image.

Queer writer and artist Ray Filar recently went on Sky News to discuss the priorities of the LGBTQ community in the 2017 election. In the age of legalised same-sex marriage – a tradition which favours privileged LGBT people who are white and cisgender, Ray noted – there's a misconception among many that nothing else needs doing for the LGBT community. "The reality," Ray told me later, "is that there are a lot of issues we don't necessarily think of as queer issues; homelessness disproportionately affects queer young people because they get chucked out of their homes by unaccepting parents, and healthcare is a queer issue for lots of reasons, including queer / trans people who are disabled, fall sick due to poverty, need services after being attacked or require trans-specific care that includes but isn't limited to surgery."

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Policies that looked at these issues would positively affect LGBT people's lives, says Ray. But how would that look on paper? Not like the 2017 Conservative party manifesto, that's for sure, Ray responds. It promises little beyond a vague re-evaluation of sex education in schools; the entire document fails to even mention the terms "LGBT", "trans" or "gay". Meanwhile, Labour promise a reform of the Gender Recognition Act and Equality Act to better protect trans people, and the Lib Dems promise less bureaucracy for people transitioning. Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens also promise the provision of the HIV prevention drug PrEP, pledge actual LGBT sex education in schools and say they will ensure harsher sentences for hate crime.

"Those aren't the sorts of central issues like the right to marry or not get sacked for being gay that were in manifestos two or three elections ago," points out Benjamin. He believes, like Ray, that LGBT people have been more divided in the last two elections for this reason; that LGBT people who feel like their rights have been won – like the fight is over – are not letting their sexuality define their politics, with issues like the economy and healthcare ranking higher than LGBT rights for them. "I think this means people don't feel threatened in the way they did 10 or 15 years ago," says Benjamin. "We found that about two out of three people surveyed thought things would be as safe or more safe for LGBT people during the next parliament. So I don't think people have a sense their rights are being threatened, which is maybe why it's not a priority."

So there isn't really such thing as an LGBT vote in 2017, with what seems to be an increasing number of LGBT people feeling comfortable and safe enough not to prioritise their sexuality or gender expression at the ballot box. Relatively speaking, this makes sense. Compared to the rest of the world, the UK doing is OK on gay rights and representation. We have gay marriage, gay adoption and LGBT people are able to serve in the army. Our 2015-2017 parliament has been called the "gayest in the world", given that there were 35 out lesbian, gay or bi MPs (although there are no trans MPs).

As Ray reminds us, however, these are mainstream issues that do not apply to the betterment of all sectors of the LGBT community, to people who are unconcerned about marriage because they're simply trying to survive. Sure, Theresa May's "opinions" on LGBT issues have changed along with the rest of the country's, becoming more progressive over time, but to ignore LGBT issues in the manifesto, to pretend the country no longer has any prejudice that needs to be addressed, is wrong. LGBT voters would do well to remember that just 50 years ago it was illegal to be homosexual, until 12 years ago trans people couldn't legally change their gender, and just over three years ago gay couples couldn't get married. And if history has shown us anything, it's that progress is a process – we should vote for the parties who show that they know it doesn't stop here.

@MillyAbraham