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Who's Profiting from the Scottish Referendum?

Sparing a thought for the printers and patriotic clothing companies that will be left bereft after the vote.

First Minister Alex Salmond and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at the launch of A National Conversation, 2007 (Photo via)

The Scottish independence referendum is six weeks away. In Edinburgh, soggy political flyers mingle with discarded Fringe ads for one-man War Horse musicals; YES posters occupy windows; and taxis drive around sporting Better Together banners. Tuesday night’s debate – which Alistair Darling won, with 56 percent of the vote in a snap ICM exit poll – was widely watched by those fortunate enough to get the online STV player to load, and one of Scotland’s largest pro-independence groups is now trying to distance the vote from Alex Salmond.

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There’s the exact mix of anticipation, nerves and tension you’d expect from a country on the verge of making one very big decision, and you can already feel both sides of the campaign stepping up their efforts ahead of the September vote. But one thing nobody seems to have taken into consideration is those standing to lose a hefty bit of their income stream once the whole discussion is over. Where will printing businesses turn? Who will keep patriotic memorabilia companies afloat once people stop bulk-buying sporrans?

All that got me thinking about who exactly is making money from the referendum, so I thought I’d look into it and distinguish those working purely for love – or political leanings, at least – from those who are all about the cold hard cash.

A Ladbrokes in the Scottish town of Renfrew (Photo via)

THE BOOKIES

People normally have no option but to bet on silly stuff. They’ll throw money at a game of chance, speculate what a very rich baby might be called or coast on the pure exhilaration that comes with potentially losing a week’s earnings on a man riding a horse. So it’s no surprise that when something vaguely serious comes along – like 5.2 million people leaving a country, for example – those same gamblers would hurl all their chips onto the table.

“At first we thought [the referendum] was fairly niche,” said Alex Donohue from Ladbrokes. “However, now it’s clear that the interest is wider, crossing over from the political puritans to the man in the street. In Scotland, it’s quite literally the biggest story in town, and a lot of people will be placing bets.”

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William Hill has seen a similar surge in interest, with their Media Relations Director Graham Sharpe confirming that they expect to turn over “in excess of £1 million in total – far more than originally anticipated”.

“We’ve had some quite obscure bets,” said Alex, “including people betting on Scotland voting Yes and David Cameron resigning within 24 hours. That’s 50/1, so not totally outside the realms of possibility. Also, 50/1 is the prospect of a No landslide [a vote of 75 percent] or a Yes landslide [a vote of 65 percent].”

Alex quoted the highest bet as £200,000 on a No vote, placed in Edinburgh at odds of 5/1, followed by £50,000 and £18,000 on No in London. The largest Yes votes were both £10,000 – one in London and one in the Scottish Borders. William Hill exceeded this, with Graham telling me the biggest bet they’ve received so far is £400,000 on a No vote.

We obviously can’t tell how large the profit for bookies will be until all the votes are in. But with politicalbetting.com – who presumably know what they’re talking about – citing the referendum as “the biggest non-general election UK political better event ever”, it’s safe to assume A Lot.

For love or money? All about the money.

THE POLLING COMPANIES

This was also a tricky one to work out, profit-wise. First up, I spoke to Mark Diffley at the market research company Ipsos MORI, who began our interview by declaring he “certainly won’t tell [me] anything about profits”. Ironic, for an agency whose day-to-day is calling people up with prying questions, but understandable. He went on to tell me that the referendum is “certainly something people are engaged with; people want to talk about it, they’re willing to talk about it”.

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Next I spoke to Ben Tobin at Yougov, an organisation that, according to their 2013 annual report, made an operating profit of £6 million, with a turnover of £62.6 million. The topics of their polls vary, so although independence is a key issue at the moment, it’s not the only one. “We’ve done work in England and Wales to find out what they think of independence,” said Ben. “However, we try to cover everything. We’ve done a lot of work on Gaza recently.”

For love or money? For money, but seeking to serve the public interest.

Some unwanted Yes promotional material (Photo via)

PR AGENCIES

Both campaigns have received huge donations, whether they’re from super wealthy children’s authors, lottery winners or just your average, run-of-the-mill plebs – though the No campaign has reportedly taken more than double the amount donated to Yes. A decent chunk of this money goes straight into PR, because, really, what else can they get away with spending all that money on?

While the Yes campaign does all their PR in house – “taking the underdog approach”, according to PR Week – Better Together have employed the help of M&C Saatchi, seemingly in the hope they can replicate the success of their 1980s “Labour Isn’t Working” crusade and crush Salmond into the mud. Sadly, no one at M&C Saatchi was available to speak to me, so I couldn’t ask them how much they were being paid. But considering they’re one of the largest advertising agencies in the world, I’m going to go ahead and assume again: A Lot.

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For love or money? Possibly a bit of both; some in the Yes camp may be working partly for love.

THE PRINTERS

Printing companies in Edinburgh, usually kept plenty busy with the Fringe, are working double time this year, with both campaigns needed flyers, leaflets and posters that lots of people will ignore. I could only convince one Edinburgh printer to speak to me, and he did so on condition of anonymity, saying, “We’ve had a fair amount of referendum stuff, mainly flyers. I don’t know quite how much, although it’s mainly Yes. The stuff for No has been admin stuff rather than publicity materials.”

I asked him if perhaps No just aren’t bothering to publicise themselves as much. “I don’t know about that – I’ve seen some No posters about,” he said. “Nowhere near the same number as the Yes ones, but they are about. They do exist.”

As a printer, he told me he sometimes feels uncomfortable about the materials he’s been asked to produce. “Both sides make some claims that could be said to be factually dubious at best, and I always feel a bit apprehensive about printing things like that,” he said. But that clearly doesn’t stop him.

So how much is he making on these factually dubious print-outs? “I can’t tell you about profits,” he said. “But we charge £60 for 1,000 double-sided flyers, and we’re making a lot of flyers.”

For love or money? ÂŁÂŁÂŁÂŁÂŁ

A Proud Clothing T-shirt

THE PRODUCERS OF PATRIOTIC MERCHANDISE

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Lesley Matthews runs Proud Clothing – whose tagline is: “Scottish and Loving it” – a company that, shockingly, sells clothing that celebrates the “history, culture and heritage of Scotland”.

“Initially we didn’t start out with the referendum in mind,” said Lesley, who creates the designs herself. “There was such a lack in decent Scottish T-shirts, and it wasn’t until it got up and running that I realised it could be used as a tool to promote independence.”

I asked whether the T-shirts were still a money-making operation, or whether they had veered into propaganda territory. “Well, they’re a way of starting up a conversation in the pub,” Lesley replied. “Sales have been up this year, with our Rebellious Scot T-shirt being our bestseller by far. But it’s far more an idealistic thing than a profit-making thing. You know, it’s never going to pay the mortgage.”

Lesley puts her money where her claims are, donating a portion of the company’s profits to the Yes campaign. “We put in private donations from the company’s bank account, but we’re not officially affiliated with the Yes programme,” she told me. “Really, it would be great to make a profit, but we’re just ordinary people trying to do our bit to make a difference and encourage people to vote Yes.”

For love or money? For love, almost all the way.

Vlad and Kier

COMEDIANS

Vladimir McTavish (real name Paul) and Kier McAllister have put on a referendum show at the Fringe every year since 2012, and previously they’d never made a profit. This year, however, their show “Aye Right? How No? The Comedy Countdown to the Referendum” is selling out.

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“In 2012 we sold pretty well, but we were the only show dealing with it,” said Paul. “2013 was similar. We were wondering whether to come this year – have we actually got a third year in us to do this?” It turns out they did, and the show has been a huge success.

Both are staunchly pro-independence and use the show’s satirical take on the referendum to get their point across. “I think you can tell the maturity of any [debate] by the quality of its satire,” said Paul. “The fact that people now think the referendum is worth creating satire about shows how seriously people are taking it.”

Are they expecting to make a profit this year? “We might – we’ve been selling pretty well, but most Fringe shows don’t even cover their overheads,” said Paul. “We’re lucky we’re at Assembly, as they will cover our losses. Most venues don’t do that. But if we can make a difference to the outcome and make people think, then that’s what’s important.”

For love or money? Very much for the love.

@HopeWhitmore

More on the Scottish referendum:

Why Independence Will Be Hell for Scotland

Why Independence Will Be Heaven for Scotland

Meet the Pro-Independence Scots Who Want to Turn Their Country into a Socialist Utopia