The Cardinals-Dodgers Series Is Not A Narrative, It's Just Good Baseball

The Cardinals are back in the playoffs for the eleventh time in the last 15 years. October baseball in St. Louis has felt like a virtual certainty for a while, and the Cards' consistency and tendency to self-aggrandize have helped make them the most hateable team in baseball, according to the Wall Street Journal. They start their run later today against the Dodgers, an unlikely rival who they've matched up with in the playoffs more than any other team.

St. Louis took the NLCS from the Dodgers last year, and the matchup was a lazy person's metaphor for the "Tradition vs. Youngins Ruining Our Beautiful Game" narrative that too often seeps into baseball discussion. The tired epistemology that the Dodgers represent too much fun (and mooney) while the Cardinals are the last bastion of good, old-fashioned baseball is a flimsy, grafted-on dichotomy. But these are the two most historically successful clubs in the National League, and the series provides a lens into their recent progress and processes.

This season, the Cardinals posted a measly +16 run differential. According to Baseball Prospectus, the disparity between their predicted win percentage and their actual win percentage made them the luckiest team in the National League. They've primarily been buoyed by Adam Wainwright and the rest of the rotation, solid relief pitching, and stellar defense. On offense, they sure do hit a lot of singles, but had the second-fewest home runs in the majors. Still, the Cardinals maintained an impressive steadiness and their boring-ass baseball held up all year, as they never dipped below .500 after mid-May but didn't grab hold of their division until the last day of the season. They were mundane and good enough, a perfect Mike Matheny team.

Invert the Cardinals' Eeyore tendencies and you get the Dodgers. It's hard to emanate style in a slow, spacious sport like baseball, but L.A. does. Yasiel Puig is a swaggering menace who serves as the team's talisman, but their lineup is solid all the way. L.A. leads the NL in steals and is a close second in OPS. They can run and shoot, but they also have the best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers' staff leads the NL in strikeouts and sports Zach Greinke and Hyun-jin Ryu, two more top notch pitchers on the right day. Kershaw is the prohibitive MVP after he became the first pitcher in 50 years to post a sub-2.00 ERA and a strikeout percentage over 25 in consecutive seasons. With their offensive balance and dominant top-heavy rotation, they are the clear favorite in the NLDS.

But the Cardinals have a habit of punching above their weight in October, when patterns and regressions go ersatz and lose their relevance. St. Louis has been lights out in the NLDS, winning eight of 10 since 2000. Their 2006 World Series run came after they limped into the playoffs, then beat better Mets and Tigers teams. Last season, Kershaw was in similarly dominant form but the Cardinals beat him twice. They are the only team besides Philadelphia that Kershaw has a losing record against, and one of those losses was Game 2 of the 2013 NLCS, in which he gave up two hits and no earned runs but lost anyway. You can't predict baseball.

It's ironic that the "Cardinal Way" is about tradition and consistency when the Cards have been ceaselessly wild in the playoffs. They won Game 6 of the 2011 World Series in 11 innings after getting down to their last strike twice. To win this or any other series this postseason, they'll have to fly in the face of the numbers. That's why the Dodgers are such a good foi. They play bombastic baseball and perhaps can bring some of the same out of the Cardinals. The playoffs are an exercise in small sample size theater. Dodgers-Cardinals will certainly make a hell of a show.