The Costanza Method: Playing Fantasy Football The George Costanza Way

"If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right."

In the nearly two decades since "Seinfeld"'s finale, we as a species have done little beyond deliver food to each other and pretend the show is still on the air. It's common knowledge now, for instance, that the pedantic, neurotic George served as co-creator Larry David's on-camera surrogate, and more— importantly to our purposes here—that the notion at the core of "The Opposite" was a thread David was pulling on George's behalf before his show even received a season order.

In that sense, the idea that we can find success by ignoring our most prevalent instincts is as close to an inherent truth as 1990s television, or television from any era, ever gets. That is good enough for me, and as it happens is good enough for most of the world's preeminent gamblers as well. (It works for investors, too, and what's the difference?)

The short version, which we will expand on throughout the NFL season in this space, is that most people are not smart. Most people are dumb, in fact, and are fully capable of filling a lifetime with bad decisions all by themselves. I, myself, am doing it right now.

Because of that, and because of the incredible variance of NFL results, the Sunday scrubs punching their Daily Fantasy Sports tickets with a prepaid $100 Visa card at 1 p.m. ET could not be more easily separated from their money with a hammer and chisel. This is because they don't know anything, and, worse, they don't even know that they don't know anything. But you're different.

You're just as dumb as I am, unfortunately, but, by the grace of God and the internet, you know it. You don't presume to be an expert when it comes to betting the lines, setting your fantasy lineup, or selecting a daily league roster. You are reading this column, we hope, not because you are looking for an "expert" to reaffirm your biases or say some comforting sooth, but because you are willing to work with someone who is as curious about this stuff as you are—a partner willing to push you to do what you couldn't bear to do on your own. You know, like the guys from Jackass did.

With that in mind, let's try to make a little money now.

If you don't know by now, you will soon: statistically speaking, you probably will not win a million dollars playing daily fantasy sports. In general, it's because there is an outrageous demand for the sport right now, resulting in a tremendous amount of competition; DraftKings' top contest alone allows for over 400,000 individual entries. In particular, it's because most of those entries share a certain percentage of selections, thereby making it more difficult for teams who own those players to achieve much upward momentum in the standings. You could account for this factor by agonizing over each and every slot and dollar, cramming as many stars as possible onto your team and praying that you can somehow outpace everyone else who is playing Julio Jones and Tom Brady.

Or you could do something totally different.

You don't have to spend all your allotted budget in daily fantasy. In fact, you probably shouldn't even try, because almost everyone else will be doing just that. It may seem ridiculous at first, but zigging with Joe Flacco (.3% owned, $6,200 salary, 24.48pts) was a great deal compared to zagging on Russell Wilson (9.2% owned, $7,000, 16.2pts). In service of our goal, which is to win a large tournament, spending efficiently doesn't matter much; after all, our Costanza Method theory here is that using up your entire budget to craft a superteam is a fool's errand. None of even the most "perfect" lineups on DraftKings so far this year have spent all 50,000 budgeted dollars, and that trend is likely to continue, probably due to math or something.

So here are the players we think have a shot to seriously outperform their likely ownership percentage.

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals - $5,900
Tyrod Taylor, QB, Bills - $5,800

These two are facing very generous pass defenses in Kansas City and the New York Giants, respectively, and are both coming off of Top-6 performances at their position without eclipsing 3% ownership. With just one conventionally attractive option in Tom Brady on bye, and good matchups for QBs further up the food chain like Rodgers, Luck, and Wilson, these two have a good chance to fly under most players' radar.

Arian Foster, RB, Texans - $7,000
Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys - $3,600

Most of the time, the more expensive players are attractive for a reason, and they end up on teams at a higher clip than their cost-effective counterparts. In this case, though, I'm thinking Foster's questionable status means many teams won't see the value in the dearer Texan back, meaning in the event he scores three walk-in TDs against the soft Falcons run defense, we'll be in elite company.

Travis Benjamin, WR, Browns - $4,500
Allen Hurns, WR, Jaguars - $3,900
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers - $6,400

It wouldn't shock me to see people hopping off the Benjamin Bandwagon, given his touchy ribs and the tumultuous Cleveland QB situation. Take advantage and give him another week to prove he can't keep up his torrid pace. Some players may feel burned by Hurns after a two-catch performance in New England last week, but the same rules apply here: a bad secondary on the other side of the ball and the likelihood that his Jaguars will be playing catch-up.

Charles Clay, TE, Bills - $3,300
Lardarius Green, TE, Chargers - $3,200

For even less money, you can get Gary Barnidge, who is coming off a shockingly good Week 3 and is also a football player named Gary. But that's too obvious. Clay obviously has a nice rapport with QB Tyrod Taylor, and seems more likely to grab 3-4 balls than most non-Gronkowskis in the league right now. Bills players are always underrated, because they play for the Buffalo Bills, so this has the potential to be a big play.

Some Defense, D/ST, Team X - Some Amount Of Fantasy Currency

Who cares, just pick one that isn't Seattle.

Unless you (or your leaguemates) are really not paying attention, you're probably not making too many pickups on Friday. Besides, the utility of advising readers about which free agents are somewhat less likely to be at the top of the waiver pool seems rather limited. Anyway, conventional add/drop wisdom is available in more expansive form here, from the very talented Christopher Harris.

Instead, I'd like to use this space to point out a few players that might be on your bench and should not be. Maybe you're more Jerry than George, and find that, no matter what you do, it all seems to even out. In that case, skip this section, scroll back up, and go win some paper. But if, like me, you believe you have a little Costanza in you, then take this section as it is given: a respectful nudge in the direction of something better.

Now, for this week's "Call-Ups," which is the thing I am calling these people wholly against their will.

Ryan Mallett, QB, Texans

Football Outsiders' DAVE metric, which sprinkles preseason numbers into the classic DVOA recipe while the season is still young, has the Falcons in the bottom handful of teams in the league against the pass. Their run defense is slightly less porous, but even the spectre of a returning Arian Foster should exert some pressure on this janky unit, and DeAndre Hopkins is going to get loose at some point.

Derek Carr, QB, Raiders

Brady owners could do worse than slotting the surprisingly high-volume Carr into their lineups this week as he takes on the grossest Chicago defense in recent memory. This game is probably going to be a trainwreck, but these two pisslord secondaries could conceivably make it interesting in a voyeuristic sort of way.

Rishard Matthews, WR, Dolphins

Even if you don't buy that Miami is better than they've looked, Matthews has caught 150% more balls for twice the YAC in losses so far this year. Either way, this guy is getting his.

Andre Johnson, WR, Colts

ESPN's fantasy crew has a video up this week bemoaning the premature death of Johnson, who is a dang monster and who also did not record a catch in last week's narrow win over the Titans. It's possible that Johnson is done; he has played a really dangerous sport for a long time. But I'll take my chances that Johnson and the entire Colts offense, which has looked downright gruesome at times this year, will straighten out against Jacksonville.

Golden Tate, WR, Lions

Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys

Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles

You can never predict Sproles' usage on the ground, but he's averaging five receptions a game, and Washington's lackadaisical pass defense could easily yield seven or more catches. And as he's already proven this year, Sproles can score at any time, even deep into the distant past where the DC-area team's nickname was acceptable language.

Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers

A lot of people forget that.

Lance Dunbar, RB, Cowboys

Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers

It hasn't been spectacular for Martin so far, but his consistent usage to this point means you should probably be considering him as a replacement for struggling front-line types. Dude looks like Sonic the Hedgehog, and right now he deserves a start over "Walking Dead" extras like C.J. Anderson.