Moore's Alabama primary win should put incumbents on high alert

Conservative challenger Roy Moore defeated incumbent Sen. Luther Strange in the Alabama Senate Republican runoff Tuesday, putting President Donald Trump on the losing end of a battle between the populist movement he inspired and the establishment wing of the GOP.

Trump endorsed and campaigned for Strange, the state’s former attorney general, who was appointed to the seat by Alabama’s disgraced former governor after Jeff Sessions vacated it to join the Trump administration. But most local and national conservative figures — including former White House chief adviser Steve Bannon — endorsed Moore. Known for his controversial comments about religion and sexuality, Moore is also the state’s former chief justice, who was removed from office twice for putting religion before the law.

While Moore is still heavily favored to win the general election against Democrat Doug Jones in deep-red Alabama, his frequent gaffes could create problems for Republicans in other states.

Many of his more controversial statements have already been outlined in a research document prepared by Democratic opposition research group American Bridge that notes Moore’s “record of… un-American bigotry.”

But the bigger issue for the GOP in a Moore win is that it’s certain to embolden other conservative primary challengers —who see themselves not as opponents of Trump but as defenders of his agenda, and see Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell as the biggest obstacle to Trump’s campaign promises.

Moore’s win also establishes Bannon and the Breitbart wing of the party as a potent force in the conservative movement.

“Alabama is the flashpoint for the upcoming war against Mitch McConnell and his establishment. What happened in Alabama is the playbook for 2018,” said Andy Surabian, a senior adviser to the pro-Trump Great America Alliance and super PAC Great America PAC.

It was an early testing ground of what one source familiar with Bannon’s plans described as a “nexus” of conservative groups and figures with the shared goal of taking down moderate GOP incumbents and putting McConnell on alert.

And despite spending less than a month on the race, that nexus worked like an unexpectedly well-oiled machine. Bannon sent his protegé and Breitbart’s Washington editor Matt Boyle down to Alabama after the runoff to get a sense of the candidates. After selecting Moore as their candidate, Breitbart’s team of editors and reporters went all-in.

In twice-daily editorial calls, the Breitbart team coordinated coverage on the race and dispatched a handful of reporters to Alabama for the final stretch. They splashed the Breitbart homepage with wall-to-wall coverage of the race for weeks, amplifying Strange’s ties to a company that profited from the EB-5 Visa program, which conservatives loathe, and painting him as a stooge of McConnell and the GOP establishment.

They were joined by Great America PAC, which hosted a rally in support of Moore featuring as speakers Sarah Palin and former White House aide Sebastian Gorka. And North Carolina Rep. Mark Meadows, head of the conservative Freedom Caucus, sent staff down to help Moore with his campaign.

Bannon’s so-called “nexus,” the unexpectedly cohesive conservative operation that arose out of the special election, could be the key to conservatives finally taking the incumbent scalps they’ve unsuccessfully taken aim at in past cycles, when underfunded and inexperienced conservative challengers were stymied by McConnell’s well-funded, seasoned operation.

Bannon is also setting himself up as the conservative kingmaker — both the man who vets the candidates, and the man that can bring together the full force of the MAGA movement behind his preferred pick.

So far, he’s eyeing Republican Sens. Jeff Flake of Arizona and Dean Heller of Nevada as his top targets this cycle, and has met with Rep. Danny Tarkanian, who’s challenging Heller in his primary.

And when Sen. Bob Corker — another Republican Bannon set his sights on — unexpectedly announced his resignation Tuesday, conservatives involved in the Alabama Senate race claimed a partial victory, insisting Moore’s strength in the race had spooked the Tennessee incumbent.

Bannon and his allies are also looking at Mississippi, where they see Sen. Roger Wicker as vulnerable and too beholden to the establishment. State Sen. Chris McDaniel, who narrowly lost a primary fight to Sen. Thad Cochran in 2014 and is considering a bid, said he’s been “encouraged to make the right decision” by his “friend,” Bannon.

“This environment makes a U.S. Senate race incredibly compelling, especially since Wicker is on McConnell’s leadership team and has stood with McConnell against Trump in almost every conceivable situation. The fact that McConnell wasn’t able to spend his way to success in Alabama makes it compelling,” he said.

Bannon may also be able to marshal resources that were otherwise unavailable to these conservative challengers in the past because of his ties to major conservative donors — in particular, his close relationship with Robert Mercer, the GOP megadonor who gave millions to Trump’s campaign.

Already, Mercer has given $50,000 to a pro-McDaniel super PAC.

But a better-funded, more organized conservative movement likely means bigger headaches for the Republican Party overall, if the party establishment is forced to spend millions defending incumbents and electing more-polished candidates in open primaries.

That’s a boon for Democrats, who are facing a difficult and expensive Senate map this cycle, defending 25 seats to the GOP’s eight. David Bergstein, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, touted the possibility.

“It’s clear that the Republican primaries that are raging across the Senate map are set to be incredibly expensive and divisive — that they will drain resources from the GOP and damage their eventual nominees,” he said.