Extending Alexander Radulov Long Term Is a Risk Worth Taking for Canadiens

Chances are, the Montreal Canadiens will find a way to extend or re-sign Alexander Radulov instead of letting him walk this summer as an unrestricted free agent. The relationship between the Russian star and the organization seems to be extremely positive, and his offence is not something the team can afford to lose.

But things do get complicated for the Canadiens when you consider that Radulov is turning 31 years old on July 5, and as a UFA on a team that lacks star power, he has a lot of leverage.

Radulov denied rumours that he had requested an eight-year contract in negotiations, but as Elliotte Friedman mentioned in his 30 Thoughts column, it's believable that his agent could have thrown that idea out there without informing him, as in-season negotiations rarely involve the player themselves.

Further complicating matters is the fact that while Radulov started the season on fire, he hasn't exactly been blowing the doors off offensively despite usually looking dangerous. His per-82 game pace of 58 points is below Alex Galchenyuk's 63, putting him third on the team offensively. If that's what Radulov's true talent is, it needs to be factored into the equation with both him and Galchenyuk up for new contracts in the summer.

Personal point production isn't everything, however, and what matters even more is how much offence a player is driving while on the ice. If a player rarely produces points but his team consistently outscores opponents while he's out there, odds are he's doing something passively to create that result. With that in mind, let's look at Radulov's rolling point production against the offence he helps create, and see if he's really as inconsistent as his season would have us believe.

Using Corsica Hockey's expected goals calculation (xGoals) which factors in shot type and approximate location, we can see that after a brief period where Radulov was way above expectations in the first 25 games of the season, he hasn't gotten the results he's deserved on the ice for most of the rest of the season, despite consistently hovering around three expected goals per hour, until recently.

Similarly, Radulov's even strength point production was very strong for nearly the first 25 games this season (keeping in mind that each point on the graph accounts for that game and the previous nine), before experiencing three big droughts in the 25-35 game, 43-51 game, and the 59-65 game ranges.

What's notable, though, is that during those drops in personal production, only in the last one did the expected goals drop, and there was only one severe dip in actual goals for, coming at the end of the first drought.

The end result is that while Radulov is second on the Canadiens in on-ice goals for per 60 minutes played at even strength, he's just sixth in individual production, behind Brendan Gallagher, who is in the midst of his worst season.

With most players his age, we can look at their careers to date and see how consistently they drive offence because single years aren't very predictive when we strictly look at goals. When it comes to Radulov, however, the last full season we have on him is 2007-08, which isn't much help.

What we do know is that Radulov has only been credited with points on 60 percent of the goals he's been on the ice for at 5-vs-5, one of the lowest marks on the Canadiens. By contrast, his two most common linemates Max Pacioretty and Phillip Danault have earned points on 78.7 and 78.9 percent, respectively, of the goals they've been on the ice for.

Does this mean that Radulov is more of a passenger at even strength and his linemates drive the bus? That isn't the story we get when we look at WOWY statistics to see how players do with and without each other.

Both players drop off without Radulov, while Radulov drops off without Pacioretty, but stays nearly identical without Danault. We know from previous seasons that Pacioretty is a huge driver of goals, so it makes sense that Radulov isn't quite as strong as he is. But he's close, and that means a lot.

Over the last three seasons, Radulov's impact on goals for per 60 relative to teammates (+0.57) matches up pretty equally to the Canadiens' former top-three offensive producers in Galchenyuk +0.61, Pacioretty (+0.56), and Gallagher (+0.48).

Obviously, at Radulov's age and with him holding the leverage, this possible extension from the Canadiens is going to be a risky bit of business, but for a player who truly changes things offensively and whose numbers haven't caught up to his actual on-ice impact yet, this is a risk worth taking for the Canadiens.

Provided Montreal can find a way to keep the term to five years or less, extending Radulov will look excellent at nearly any salary demand he might have. The fact is, even if he drops off slightly next year, the odds are his personal production should actually increase.