​Friday Film Room: What's Wrong With The Packers Passing Game?

It was supposed to be fixed.

Yes, the Green Bay Packers played poorly on offense in Weeks 8 and 9, but surely that was related to their opponents: The Broncos and Panthers boast two of the NFL's stingiest defenses. Surely, finally, Aaron Rodgers would pull the Pack out of its funk in Week 10 against the bedraggled Lions.

Oops.

Listen, Rodgers himself has posted fine numbers: He reached 369 yards passing with four touchdowns against Carolina, and he scratched his way to 333 yards and two TDs last week. But you can't watch the film and say he's played particularly well, and the offense's overall lack of consistency has hurt most of Green Bay's fantasy weapons at one time or another. Suffice it to say that for three weeks, this hasn't been the well-oiled machine we were promised, and the supposed must-start fantasy options like Randall Cobb, James Jones and Davante Adams have been maddening for even longer than that.

Obviously in the context of one film-study column, I'm not going to solve all the Packers' ills. And there's already been a lot of pixel dust spilled working on this exact problem. But since I can actually show you what I'm seeing, maybe I can add a fresh perspective, and some hope about whether it can be fixed.

I don't think opponents are noticeably stacking the box with extra defenders or putting more players into coverage against the Packers. But they may be blitzing more frequently. Since Week 5, the Rams, Chargers, Broncos, Panthers and Lions have been aggressive with Rodgers, a tactic that usually gets you burned. It felt in particular that the Panthers in Week 9 changed their usual plan of rushing four and playing back, with the express intent of forcing Rodgers' hand:

What does Luke Kuechly see on this play that causes him to wave at free safety Kurt Coleman that he should run madly toward the line and blitz? It seems to me Kuechly knows that Packer left tackle David Bakhtiari is one-on-one with Panthers end Mario Addison, but that Addison's role here is to stunt to the interior. Watch Bakhtiari as he backpedals here, wonders where Addison went, and never adjusts to Coleman coming off the edge.

But let's not blame Bakhtiari exclusively. Here's the right side of Green Bay's offensive line getting skunked last week by the Lions. The key defender to watch is No. 98 Devin Taylor. Detroit brings five down linemen and nobody drops out; the Packers certainly should have enough manpower to protect Rodgers, but Taylor stands up for a moment, then goes around the offensive right edge:

This game works perfectly. Right guard T.J. Lang (70) squares Taylor up for a moment, then feels pressure on his left and feels he needs to help center Corey Linsley (63) with defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (92). By the time Taylor stunts, and Lang realizes he should probably move right to account for him, Lions end Ziggy Ansah (94) is in the way. Lang falls down, right tackle Bryan Bulaga (75) stays engaged too long with Ansah, Taylor gets around the corner free, and Rodgers is forced to throw before he wants to, inaccurately.

My guess is that opposing defenses have leaned toward pressure after seeing these mini-breakdowns on tape. But I'm not trying to imply that the O-line is the only culprit here. Defenses become emboldened to take risks when they fear your passing game less, and I'm not breaking new ground when I say: The Packers miss Jordy Nelson. They miss a receiver who gets consistent separation quickly. I've always said how impressive Nelson is on film because he wins at all three levels. Yes, it's nice to have a fast straight-line guy to keep deep safeties (like the Panthers' Coleman?) honest. But Nelson isn't just a speed player. He's smart enough to run option routes correctly (Randall Cobb is also great at this), and he cuts hard enough to throw defenders off their game on intermediate routes.

It's intellectually dishonest to show you video of one play where a receiver doesn't get open and then proclaim, "See! He's never open!" But Cobb in particular really is having a devil of a time, and it's not always his fault. Take a look at this play, from the third quarter of last week's game with Green Bay trailing by six:

Cobb is in the left slot. Davante Adams is split wide left and James Jones is split wide right. You tell me: when Rodgers looks at this defensive alignment, why is he throwing it to Cobb? Pre-snap, the Lions' free safety cheats toward the offensive left side. It winds up being a zone rush, with a defensive lineman dropping into coverage and a linebacker bringing pressure. But Detroit is careful to leave nickel safety Isa Abdul-Quddus in the middle of the field, shaded Cobb's way. This allows rookie corner Quandre Diggs to play a completely outside technique, so no matter what quickness he might possess, Cobb is never getting open on this corner-route. This is a bad, impatient decision by Rodgers. The coverage clearly dictates a throw to James Jones on the other side (the top of the screen). And this leads me to believe Rodgers simply doesn't have faith that Jones can separate, even one-on-one.

The film indicates Rodgers has been stubborn. At least a couple times per drive, he hangs onto the ball for a long time, making that patented move where he almost scrambles inside the pocket in an effort to get defensive backs to lose their coverage discipline:

And listen, if someone had been very open on his first couple reads here, I'm sure Rodgers would've thrown it. But there's impatience here, too: a willingness to eschew the shorter stuff with the hope that a bigger play will reveal itself. The Packers came out in Week 10 with a very clear plan to pick on second-year corner Nevin Lawson and it worked well early: Davante Adams ran a series of quick stops and slants because Lawson was playing off of him, and racked up four catches for 19 yards on six targets on Green Bay's first drive alone, and seven catches for 55 yards in the first half. But the crowd at Lambeau became frustrated and Rodgers did, too. I didn't see the Lions change their coverage much, yet Adams stopped making short catches in the second half, as Rodgers began forcing the ball into tighter windows.

The point of this column isn't to reevaluate Aaron Rodgers either as an NFL superstar or a fantasy stud. He's both of those, and sooner rather than later, I think he'll correct some of his minor problems. I don't think his line problems are disastrous or a result of a lack of talent, and the good thing about Rodgers is that even if his team continues to struggle, you know he'll keep flinging it and rack up numbers regardless of whether, technically speaking, he's "playing well." But what about his weapons? What about Cobb, who isn't flourishing with extra defensive attention, and Jones, who isn't getting targets despite being singled-up a lot? That's where my concern rests, fantasy-wise. In my wide receiver ranks this week, Randall Cobb is outside my top 20 receivers for the first time all season. I have hopes that Green Bay will find a solution, but after the Lions game—the game that was supposed to correct all ills—my faith is shaken.

Christopher Harris (@HarrisFootball) is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner. He hosts the Harris Football Podcast every weekday. Find it on iTunes, Stitcher, TuneIn and most other podcast apps, as well as at www.HarrisFootball.com.