Bizarro Trade Deadline: Four Deals That Should (But Probably Won't) Happen

The trade deadline is days away, meaning the silly season is upon us. Rather than behave like the responsible adults we pretend to be in the daytime, we've decided to join in on the madness by dreaming up some sure-not-to-happen deals―you know, for entertainment purposes. Of course, while this exercise is for fun, the hope here is that it can inspire new thought about how we view certain players or teams.

Silly Trade No. 1: Dellin Betances to the Dodgers for Jose DeLeon, Alex Verdugo, Yadier Alvarez, and Yusniel Diaz

True, the Dodgers lead the majors in bullpen ERA (thanks largely to Kenley Jansen and Adam Liberatore), and true, using their resources to land a cost-controlled starter would probably make more sense. But if Farhan Zaidi is looking for an impact addition at the deadline, then Betances qualifies.

Betances is one of the best relievers in baseball, and he entered Thursday with career-high strikeout and strikeout-to-walk rates, suggesting he's gotten better. He'll qualify for arbitration for the first time after the season, yet won't earn his free-agent rights until winter 2019. In other words, Betances is a viable long-term replacement for Jansen, who will hit the open market in a few months. Obviously it's easier to capture a leprechaun than a reliever you can depend on for the next 3.5 years, but if you won't make that bet on Betances, then who will you make the bet on? Between now and then, Betances can help Jansen lock down tight games, in part by keeping Joe Blanton and Pedro Baez away from super-duper important situations. And hey, should you believe in that duo, then rest easy knowing their availability earlier in the game would help a depleted rotation. After all, there's almost certainly a cascading effect in adding an elite reliever that we can't capture in our numbers, and therefore neither understand nor properly value.

From the Yankees' perspective, moving Betances would sting. He's young, under team control for years, and represents a scouting and development success story. But the argument boils down to this: relievers break. Getting a Craig Kimbrel–type return would aid New York's rebuilding efforts and numb the pain. Besides, there's a chance―perhaps not a great one, but a chance―Betances is ineffective by the next time the Yankees are competitive enough to make proper use of him. These are some of the same reasons the Yankees are pondering dealing Andrew Miller, so while Betances is probably safe for now, it could be just a matter of time before that changes.

Silly Trade No. 2: Nelson Cruz to the Indians for Clint Frazier and Rob Kaminsky

Remember when we all rushed to mock Cruz's signing? If you don't, it went like this: he was a one-dimensional slugger entering his mid-30s who would almost certainly disappoint without the benefit of a friendly hitting environment. Almost halfway through the deal, it's safe to say so much for all that phooey.

Cruz has outperformed even the most optimistic projections, to the point where we have to ask: Should the Mariners consider trading him? For as well as he's played, he's a one-dimensional slugger now entering his late 30s. Moving Cruz would hurt the M's chances of competing in 2017 (and probably 2018), but this is an organization with a bad farm system and a seeming cap on their big-league roster's potential. Playing for two or three years down the road might be the sensible choice, albeit not the popular road.

The Indians, meanwhile, are in the opposite boat. Adding an impact-level bat like Cruz to their vaunted pitching staff and defense could make them the favorites to win the American League pennant. Sure, fitting the nearly $30 million remaining on Cruz's contract would be tough, but think about it this way: the Indians could always dangle a better prospect in return for Seattle eating some of the cash.

Whether that's a worthy trade-off depends on how you feel about maximizing your World Series (and Francisco Lindor smile) chances while you can.

Silly Trade No. 3: Eric Hosmer to the Nationals for Reynaldo Lopez, Austin Voth, and Andrew Stevenson

By rule, you should be skeptical of any idea that forces you to use the words "opportunity cost" and "sunk cost." Be that as it may, we'll proceed because this one is a thinker.

The Royals are nearing an impossible situation. After next season, much of their core―Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, and others―will qualify for free agency. Theoretically, the Royals could sign one or two of those players, and perhaps do enough roster maintenance elsewhere to remain competitive. But say they don't think they can stretch their payroll that far. Is it worth making one or two more runs at the postseason with this group before entering a rebuild? Or does it make more sense to call it what it is and begin the process now, while the World Series victory parade is fresh in everyone's minds?

As for the Nationals, their dilemma is singular in nature: Ryan Zimmerman. He's having a horrible season, and the fact that he's under contract through 2019 almost feels irrelevant―due to his performance, yes, but also due to his unreliability. Can the Nationals afford to proceed with Zimmerman as their top choice at first base? The Nationals have the prospects to upgrade at first base―and Hosmer would be a definitive upgrade―so the question is whether they feel like maximizing their chances at winning a ring of their own.

The real takeaway here: being a general manager is much tougher than Economics 101 led us to believe.

Silly Trade No. 4: Yangervis Solarte to the Mets for Brandon Nimmo and Josh Smoker

We saved the best name and the most straightforward deal for last. Think about it this way: the Mets are trying to win now, and the Padres are trying to win later. An above-average switch-hitting third baseman with experience at other positions, Solarte is an underrated talent who makes more sense on a contender than a rebuilder. That's because, while he won't hit the open market until after the 2019 season, he's already 29 years old. If you squint, you can see the Padres deciding this is his peak value and cashing out. As for the Mets, it makes sense to add another third-base option. Even if David Wright miraculously comes back from his back troubles, the worst-case scenario is having one too many good players. That's never a bad thing―especially not when you have a chance to reach your second consecutive World Series.

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