There's Always Next Year: New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints went for it in 2014. They had just lost to the Seahawks in the playoffs, and figured that they needed to emulate them. With an aging Drew Brees, the sense in New Orleans was that the window might be closing soon. So they signed safety Jairus Byrd to a huge, cap-crippling contract to pair him with Kenny Vaccaro.

In retrospect, that move only led to disaster. The Saints, already cash-strapped, imploded. They had to move on from tight end Jimmy Graham last offseason. They gave defensive end Junior Galette a huge deal only to watch him fall apart and release him.

The end result is that the Saints now have about $22 million in dead money on their cap. In a year where pretty much the entire league is set to be able to play in free agency, the Saints barely have the cap space to sign their rookie class.

The Saints can't do better than the Sean Payton/Drew Brees core, but they're too far past their prime to make a contender out of what's left, which is an awkward mix of young and old. They finished dead last in defensive DVOA and were orders of magnitude worse than 31. These are the throes of an empire on its last legs and without a long-term plan. It's not totally impossible to turn things around—it would just take a lot of immediate draft hits.

Coach and Quarterback Confidence Rating: 7/10

Brees definitely played through pain last season. The pain made it hard to discern just how much he has fallen off from his past performance. Was plantar fasciitis, by making it difficult for him to plant his foot, the root cause of his ineffective deep passing? Or was that just conveniently disguising his deteriorating arm strength? The Saints and their medical staff know the answer to this more than we do.

New Orleans has opted to keep riding with Brees, which is the safe move. Alienating the quarterback who made your franchise relevant again is bad business. That said, there are compelling reasons to try to find a new home for Brees sooner rather than later, while he's still good enough to win with. If moving him could kick-start a rebuild in New Orleans, it'd make sense for both sides.

After BountyGate, Payton has become almost underappreciated, with nobody really pumping him as a top-tier NFL coach. He still has good play designs, and he's managed to keep Brees effective and hide the decline on the fly. The only major downside is that he can't hire a defensive coordinator to save his life, and when a unit is this untalented, they need every bit of coaching they can get.

Key Offseason Decision: How much can re-signing Brees save the Saints?

New Orleans is going to extend Drew Brees. It's a foregone conclusion at this point. Brees is in the final year of a five-year, $100 million contract. He currently carries a $30 million cap figure, the highest in the NFL.

So re-signing Brees would provide relief for the Saints, and give them space to find some bargain free agents to stock the roster. The question is: How much space? Brees isn't going to play forever, so it might be tricky to figure out how much he's worth to the organization.

My guesstimate is that Brees will probably cut his cap hit in half in this negotiation. If the Saints can somehow get more, they'll have a better shot at free agency again.

Major Free Agents: TE Ben Watson, S Rafael Bush, DT Kevin Williams, QB Luke McCown, TE Michael Hoomanawanui

Watson had a successful season, but at 35, he's not about to get overpaid for the production. In fact, none of these free agents are likely to command much on the market. Bush was a hot safety prospect a few years ago. McCown has Verizon commercials. Williams was a beast for many years that did not include 2015. Hoomanawanui is the NFL's best non-Fendi Onobun name at tight end.

The Saints already have a number of people to replace, aside from these guys, because they've been busy lopping off players to create cap space.

Cap Situation: $7,441,957—28th in the NFL

The Saints have had linebacker Dannell Ellerbe take a pay cut. They released guard Jahri Evans and linebacker David Hawthorne. They restructured star end Cameron Jordan by giving him a new signing bonus, clearing up some space in 2016. By the time you read this, they'll likely have cut ties with wideout Marques Colston, too. They have already done most everything they could to get their cap figure to where it is now.

The only other guys I consider likely cuts are punter Thomas Morstead (saving $3.75 million) and corner Brandon Browner (saving $950,000). The Saints can't afford a punter with that kind of cap hit this year, and Browner was flagged for holding in the middle of this sentence.

Free agency should be restricted to small-stakes gambles for the Saints. I expect them to try to duplicate the C.J. Spiller contract at other positions—hopefully with better results.