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The WNBA Is Fixing Its Draft Lottery. Could The NBA Be Next?

Positioning in the WNBA's Draft Lottery will now be decided by cumulative two-year record, instead of the previous year's mark. The NBA should consider doing the same.
Photo by David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Despite all the noise about the NBA's perceived epidemic of draft-minded tanking, the league shied away from lottery reform this past year. On Wednesday, though, the WNBA took the issue head on by announcing changes to its draft. The league's simple tweak to the system could eventually provide a framework for similar changes in the NBA in years to come.

Effective immediately, the WNBA will be using a lottery system that relies on a team's cumulative two-year record to determine the weighted lottery system for non-playoff teams to draft. The odds for the four non-playoff teams in the 12-team league will remain unchanged within that system.

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The worst cumulative record would receive 442 chances out of 1000. The second-worst cumulative record receives 276 chances out of 1000. The third-worst record gets 178 chances out of 1000, and fourth worst receives 104 chances out of 1000. Only the top two draft picks will be selected through the lottery process, which guarantees that the team with the worst cumulative record will pick no worse than third. Previously, the worst team could drop all the way to fourth. The tiebreaker in any dead-heat scenario will be the preceding season's record. These prosaic details belie just how big a shift this could be, if it works as well the league hopes it will.

The news is significant for several reasons. For one thing, the upcoming 2016 WNBA Draft features a potential consensus number one pick in Breanna Stewart of Connecticut, and the new system should serve as a bulwark against teams bailing on the playoff race for a better shot at Stewart. With the Atlanta Dream and three of the West teams—Los Angeles, San Antonio and Seattle—all within a few games of one another, this tweak should have the immediate impact of shifting the latter three teams' focus to the playoff race for that final spot in the West. The Dream's recent trade of veteran center Erika de Souza for young players and a pick, which was seemingly made with an eye on retooling for 2016 and beyond, no longer carries with it the added benefit of significantly improving the team's draft lottery position this season. The new system takes that crowded four-way Battle For Breanna and gives the Seattle Storm a five-game lead for the best odds of winning the 2016 top pick.

Wouldn't you prefer a NBA Draft that made you feel like this? — Photo by Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

While it will be interesting for everyone that cares about the WNBA to watch the impact of these new rules on the quality and effort of play at the bottom of the league over the WNBA's final games, the NBA's decision-makers will likely be paying special attention. The NBA's effort to alter the lottery process last season—which was perceived as a response to the Philadelphia 76ers' ongoing gambit of strategic on-court awfulness—fell short of the votes required for such a change. While there's clearly some momentum in the league towards changing the way the draft gets done, the NBA takes the status quo as seriously as any other pro sports league.

Most of the talk about NBA Draft reform starts with penalties team trying to tank. In a 2013 column at NBA.com, Steve Kerr suggested weighing the lottery against the two losingest teams. But even a small shift like the WNBA's draft changes could have a big impact, and could go some way toward making the managed randomness of the Draft Lottery slightly more representative. Had the WNBA's system been in place in the NBA this year, the Sixers and Lakers, not the Timberwolves, would have had the best chance at the first overall pick (i.e. Karl-Anthony Towns).

The WNBA has acted, and it should be fascinating to see what happens next, both down the stretch and as teams are forced to think beyond the next draft. It seems likely that the NBA—and Sam Hinkie—will be watching closely to see what happens next.