Maybe Joe Biden Really Is Running for President in 2016

There are many reasons why Joe Biden will not be president in 2016. First of all, he's old—very old. Biden's already 72, and he would be 74 at the time of any inauguration. That's five years older than Ronald Reagan, the oldest person elected president to date. He's run twice before, and obviously lost, the first time in the wake of a major plagiarism scandal. And despite being one heartbeat away from the Oval Office, he's best known for saying weird, mildly offensive, shit and getting handsy with someone else's female relative. Imitating Indian 7-11 cashiers and groping the future Secretary of Defense's wife is great when you're Veep, America's mascot, but not as welcome in the leader of the free world.

Biden himself has given no strong indication that he'll even run, though he has said "there's a chance."The idea that he would mount a primary challenge against Hillary Clinton, his party's heir apparent, has always seemed farfetched. But this week's email scandal— the first big sign of trouble for Clinton's nascent presidential campaign—has sent the press, including this reporter, on a wild goose chase for Democrats not named Hillary. The main beneficiary—or victim, depending on how you feel about frenzied press coverage—of that is Biden, who's currently polling a distant secondbehind Clinton among potential Democratic candidates for 2016.

"The vice president was in New Hampshire last week, and he gave a couple of very impressive speeches," Lou D'Allesandro, a New Hampshire state senator and longtime Biden pal, told me. "He was very articulate in talking about the middle class and talking about the challenges facing the middle class, who have been left out of the progress we're making in the economic recovery. If he decides to run, we'll see what happens."

D'Allesandro's comments hint at what would likely be the major appeal of a Biden campaign, particularly in contrast to Clinton's candidacy. The VP seems approachable, likable, familiar—an average Joe who can advocate for the middle class because he is middle class, sort of. It also suggests that Biden's getting around. While he hasn't set up any of formal campaign apparatus, he's already visited the first three presidential primary states—Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina—so far this year, which means he's been visible to the voters who matter in the early campaign. He's also the vice president, so, unlike the rest of the 2016 longshots—Martin O'Malley, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb—name recognition isn't a problem.

When you take a step back from the Biden speculation, a few consistencies begin to appear in stories about his possible 2016 plans. Dick Harpootlian, a Democratic Party official and lawyer in South Carolina, shows up in most of the articles floating the idea of another Biden campaign. Not to take anything away from Mr. Harpootlian, whose enthusiasm for the Vice President is apparently boundless, but this doesn't suggest much of a groundswell to get Biden in the race. Despite my best efforts, and Harpootlian's eagerness to talk up the VP, I could not get him to comment for this story—he never called me back.

In fact, with the exception of D'Allesandro, I could not get any of Biden's former aides or friends to go on the record about a potential 2016 run. The consensus seems to be that the man obviously knows what it's like to run for president, and that if he runs again, it'll be because he thinks he can win, and believes he's the party's best option to tag in for the Obama administration's third term.

At this point, that doesn't seem likely. Politico reported in October that Biden might not be willing to few in the White House to sacrifice his influence in the actual Obama administration for the thin possibility of extending it. The story points out that few in the White House consider a Biden 2016 run a serious possibility because the VP was too wrapped up actually governing to dip out in the home stretch.

Still, for the sake of balance, it's worth noting a few reasons why Biden actually could be president in 2016. After 36 years in the Senate and eight as vice president, he would be one of the most experienced people to ever hold the Oval Office. He also tends to have more cred with progressives than his boss, especially after beating the president to the gate in supporting gay marriage. This week, he's been incredibly vocal in his opposition to the recent letter sent by Republicans to the government of Iran, a sign that he has a political brand and identity beyond the Obama administration. He's also not named Clinton, and for today at least, that works in his favor.

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