Meet Martin O'Malley, the Luckiest Man in American Politics

At this point, it seems like there's nothing more certain in politics than Hillary Clinton's eventual nomination as the Democratic candidate for president in 2016. The most recent polls show her with a 51 percent lead over the rest of the potential Democratic candidates, and her closest rivals, Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden, so far so no signs of running. Following those two is Bernie Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist who, as punk as he is, has effectively zero chance of winning anything. Most other serious candidates are either scared off by Clinton's inevitability or else comfortable with where they fit into the political machine.

Enter former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, the Democratic Establishment's newest—and so far, only—understudy. Because the reality is in electoral politics, as in life, nothing is guaranteed: No matter how inescapable Clinton's nomination seems, there is always the possibility that something could happen to change that. There could be a career-ending scandal, a personal tragedy, she and Bill could be abducted by aliens. And if that happens, O'Malley, who officially declared his campaign in Baltimore Saturday, is the only mainstream Democrat available.

This is strange because, in a normal election cycle, someone like O'Malley wouldn't get more than a head nod from the party establishment, and maybe a noncommittal promise of a low-level Cabinet position, before dropping out after the Iowa caucuses. A two-term governor of Maryland, O'Malley's record is indisputably progressive, but also fairly unremarkable.

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By the time he left office last year, due to term limits, his approval rating was down to 41 percent. His lieutenant governor, and presumed successor, Anthony Brown lost to a Republican. In a poll taken last fall, 6 in 10 of Maryland's registered Democrats said O'Malley wouldn't make a good president. Those were his own constituents—and considering that nobody else in the country knows who O'Malley is, that's kind of important.

There's also the matter of Baltimore. O'Malley served as mayor of the city from 1999 until 2007. He was also, incidentally, the inspiration for Mayor Tommy Carcetti on The Wire, which helps explain some things about his current ambitions. As evidenced by his announcement location, O'Malley's record in Baltimore is central to his presidential campaign. It is also what makes his candidacy a little odd.

In case you hadn't noticed, the city has been torn apart riots, becoming ground zero for a national debate about police brutality, particularly against black men. Although O'Malley hasn't been mayor in almost a decade, much of the blame for the tensions divide between Baltimore's cops and black residents has been cast on the zero-tolerance approach he championed while in office. O'Malley, unsurprisingly, claims that his policing strategy was effective. Critics, including The Wire creator David Simon, say that his policies created a culture of fear, and had more to do with goosing crime statistics in the interest of helping O'Malley's eventual run for governor than with making the city safer.

Related: Watch raw coverage of the Baltimore protests from VICE News

Although he may receive some sort of bump from his announcement, O'Malley is currently at around 1 percent in national polls. To give you some perspective, on the Republican side, there are 14 candidates with more support, including hopeless long-shots like Carly Fiorina and Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. In the eyes of the national voter, O'Malley is a Fiorina—an unknown, someone whose candidacy is so unconvincing that even voting for him in theory, in a poll 18 months before the election, feels like a waste.

Nevertheless, O'Malley is running his campaign as if he can compete with Hillary. His strategy is to outflank her on the left, playing up his liberal record as governor of Maryland, including his admittedly impressive accomplishments with public education. He's also started criticizing Wall Street, and talking up his opposition to things like the Keystone XL pipeline and Obama's trade deal, apparently positioning himself as a sort of bargain bin Elizabeth Warren.

"This is America," O'Malley's campaign launch video states, "we don't coronate or hand out turns. We earn it."

Could this all also be bullshit sloganeering? Maybe. And though he's noted that Jimmy Carter and Hillary's husband were similarly unknown at the beginning of their presidential campaigns, neither man had an opponent as formidable as Hillary. But if O'Malley does think he has a chance of outrunning Clinton, playing it progressive, whether its sincere or not, is his only chance.

Like I've been saying, though, it's not really a chance. At the end of the day, O'Malley's basically a technocrat with the charisma of an accountant in a dad band. Which makes it even more remarkable that he's the guy Democrats will likely be left with should anything happen to their heir apparent. With just one woman between him and the Democratic nomination, O'Malley may just be the luckiest man in politics.

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