Is the Thunder's Championship Window Closing?

Three years ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder went 47-19 in a lockout-shortened season and made it to the NBA Finals before losing to the Miami Heat. They've come up short in their bids to return to the Finals in each of the last two seasons: They escaped the Houston Rockets in the first round in 2013, but lost Russell Westbrook to injury and, shorthanded, lost to the Memphis Grizzlies in their next series. This past season, the Thunder were without Serge Ibaka for the first two games of the Conference Finals against San Antonio and lost the series in six. The Spurs were playing at a very high level so while it might not have mattered if Ibaka had played in Games 1 and 2, it certainly would have helped.

The Thunder are demonstrably great, but because they've come up short and have yet to win a title, they're also a disappointment. In the reality of the NBA, a team that consistently wins in the regular season but doesn't bring home a championship makes you almost famous, and nothing more.

The good news: Durant and Westbrook are 25 and Ibaka is 24—they'll be very good for a very long time, barring injury or other setbacks. But championship windows have definitive starts and ends. Every year there are different dynamics surrounding each team—chances for injuries, the rising and falling of other teams in the conference, the Spurs redefining the term staying power. Durant will hit free agency in two years. He might leave, he might not, but the expiration of his current contract creates an arbitrary end point for the team. If they win a title, the second-best player in the world might have more incentive to stay in Oklahoma. If not…

Under the current collective bargaining agreement, the idea of an extended championship run is wishful thinking. The Miami Heat formed a championship core in 2010, they made four straight Finals and won two titles, but that era ended when LeBron James decided to return to the Cleveland Cavaliers. (Arguably, it ended as Wade's knees suddenly aged and LeBron decided he wasn't going to take a pay cut to bring fresh talent to the Heat.) One of the reasons for the Heat's decline was their inability to surround their superstars with effective role players. Player evaluation—see: Beasley, Michael—might have played a part in that, but the team was also looking to reduce their luxury tax bill, which was apparent when they used the amnesty clause to jettison a valuable contributor in Mike Miller.

Clay Bennett, the Thunder's owner, has made it clear he wants to stay away from the luxury tax as well. The financial penalties are harsh, and escalate if you become a repeater tax team. It's part of the reason why James Harden is in Houston, it's why they've employed a domestic draft and stash strategy to cut costs, and it's why the Thunder often feel like the team that's always leaving something on the table.

This offseason, the Thunder bid farewell to Thabo Sefolosha and welcomed Sebastian Telfair and Anthony Morrow. This is what the Thunder do. They add pieces on the fringes, a luxury they can afford because they have three great players to build around; in any case they don't have a lot of spare money to go after anyone important.

The Thunder will have to make some decisions in the summer of 2015. Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison's contracts will come off the books and Reggie Jackson will be a restricted free agent. On the other hand, Steven Adams, Perry Jones, and Jeremy Lamb will each have another season under their belts. Will they be ready to be cost-effective replacements or, heading into the final year of Durant's contract, will Bennett be forced to spend a little more to increase their odds at a title?

Though the team is already a contender, it always feels like they're one move away from establishing themselves as the clear favorite in a crowded West. According to one report, they're one of the most profitable teams in the league, so couldn't they spend a little more and fail because they got too aggressive rather than failing because of a deal they didn't make? Their fans want the Thunder to spend more, to reach for a title, because they don't want to look back in ten years and think about what this team could have been.

Championship windows are always closing. Perhaps Durant stays in 2016 even without a ring. Maybe the team comes up short two more times and Durant looks around the league and sees a better basketball situation someplace else. This kind of speculation is just idle offseason talk, but it's undeniable that KD is the best thing that's ever happened to the franchise—he practically is the franchise, and it's hard to imagine the team without him. The Thunder might have to bet heavily on their present just to preserve a future.

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