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The Beginning of the End for James Franklin at Penn State

Penn State's matchup with Pitt early this season will be a turning point for the James Franklin era.
Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports

He might not know it yet, but September 10 is going to be the day James Franklin loses his job. Not that he will actually be fired on that day—Penn State isn't going to fire a coach barely into his third year—but that day will mark the beginning of the end of the Franklin era in State College.

That's the day Penn State plays in-state rival Pitt, which will likely be favored over the Nittany Lions. Pitt, which barely fills half of Pittsburgh's Heinz Field for home games, has always been a little brother to Penn State, which routinely pulls in 100,000 fans per game. Losing to your little brother is never good, especially when you've finished 6-6 and 7-5 in your first two seasons of leading a program accustomed to winning.

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This fall, Penn State will head into the Pitt game with two new coordinators and a new quarterback, all facing their first power conference opponent. The Nittany Lions will be expected to lose. Penn State fans might not like that, but given Franklin's track record, a loss would be nothing new. So far during his Nittany Lions tenure, Franklin is 0-8 against every decent-quality team he has faced—Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Northwestern.

With that in mind, it's easy to envision a downfall that begins with the Pitt game. Here's how it could play out:

September 10, 2016: Penn State loses to Pitt to fall to 1-1 on the season, and 0-1 against quality teams once again.

September 17, 2016: Penn State wins a close game against Temple to avenge a loss from last year. But still, a close win over Temple doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

Conference season, 2016: Penn State loses to Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Iowa to finish 7-5.

Another ho-hum, 7-5 finish; another offseason in which Penn State fans have to put their faith in "potential," as opposed to celebrating results. The question is, how long will they, and the school, be OK with that?

When Franklin arrived in State College, he was billed as a savior for a program that recently had lost both longtime coach Joe Paterno (under the worst possible circumstances) and his replacement, Bill O'Brien. Franklin had charisma, and he had turned Vanderbilt into a 9-3 team. The hype increased when Franklin brought in a top 15 recruiting class in 2015.

But what has Franklin really done in his career? During his three years at Vanderbilt, he benefited from a weak SEC East and only beat one ranked team the entire time. He cancelled non-conference games against Ohio State and Northwestern—the latter of which he had already lost to—to make his schedules easier. Since arriving in State College, he has done little to show that he can compete with powerhouse programs Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State in the Big Ten East, making a New Year's Six Bowl a pipe dream.

So far, Franklin's excuses for his team's poor play have worked. He has blamed abysmal offensive line and quarterback play on scholarship losses, calling this season "year one"—effectively wiping out his past two mediocre seasons.

The problem is, those seasons happened. And Nittany Lions fans are not going to be satisfied with mid-tier bowl games forever. First at Vanderbilt, and now at Penn State, Franklin has done little to prove he is an elite coach; to the contrary, he's a guy who is expected to lose to Pitt. If that happens, nothing will make State College fans more restless. Given Penn State's storied history and lofty expectations, a coach who pretends bad years were illusory while hyping up 7-5 will eventually wear out his welcome.