UNC Is College Basketball's Most Dangerous Team

It seems that nobody wants to claim the title of the nation's top team this year. For the first time since 1948-49, five No. 1 teams have lost before February. That's a far cry from last year, when Kentucky ran the table from the preseason to the Final Four.

So who is the real No. 1? Is it one of the top teams in the Big 12? How about Villanova, which is beloved by the advanced statistics? There are plenty of legitimate contenders in this season of parity, but the most dangerous one, at least during March, is another former No. 1: North Carolina.

The Tar Heels relinquished their spot atop the polls in November, after losing at Northern Iowa. They lost against at Texas in the upstart Longhorns' best performance of the season. UNC's resume is fine, with a win over Maryland and an 8-1 record against KenPom.com top 100 teams. It's the potential that makes the Tar Heels so dangerous.

Entering the season, when UNC was some analysts' pick to go all the way, the common narrative was that the Tar Heels needed point guard Marcus Paige's supporting cast to step up. Have they ever. This might be the deepest North Carolina team coach Roy Williams has had since the 2009 national championship team that featured Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, and Danny Green. These Tar Heels also have four star-caliber players in Paige, Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks, and Justin Jackson.

Johnson, in particular, has been the engine powering the Tar Heels. He led UNC when Paige was out for the first six games of the year, and he's been by far the Heels' most consistent player. Even as Paige has struggled for the past three games, with eight combined points, Johnson has helped the Tar Heels cruise to easy victories against inferior but dangerous Syracuse and NC State.

The 6-foot-10 Johnson is a statistical marvel, which is why he ranks third in the KenPom player of the year ratings. He's at his best against top teams, and he's good at virtually every aspect of the game, showing consistent improvement from his 2014-15 season.

KenPom doesn't track offensive rating rankings against the top 100, but if it did, Johnson's number would almost certainly top the country. It beats even Buddy Hield and Jarrod Uthoff, the top two in the player rankings.

What makes Johnson so good is his efficiency. He knows his shot — the low and high post — and that's what he takes. He hasn't attempted a single three all season, preferring to stick to high-percentage shots.

As a result, his shot chart is on fire.

That's the story for this entire North Carolina team: the Tar Heels know what they're good at, and they just keep going for it. They don't have great three-point shooters, so rather than just keep trying, they don't shoot them. If they do shoot them, it's typically only with Paige, Nate Britt, or Joel Berry on the floor.

Three-pointers account for only 19 percent of the Tar Heels' total points (the fifth-least nationally, at 346th) and just 26 percent of their shots (336th nationally).

Instead, they've focused on getting shots for their big men—Johnson, Justin Jackson, and Kennedy Meeks.

That's resulted in a shot chart with incredible concentration and efficiency inside, and explains why the Tar Heels have the second most efficient offense in the country, scoring 1.22 points per possession.

The scary part is that the Tar Heels could get even more dangerous. They already have the best inside game in the country, even though everyone knows that's what they're going to do. Ironically, it's Paige who can step up and help this team stand above the rest.

A 39.5 percent three-point shooter last year, Paige has struggled beyond the arc since the beginning of conference play, hitting just 23.5 percent of his threes. If he finds his shot—and his track record suggests he will—then North Carolina adds yet another dimension.

This former No. 1 team has more options than anyone expected, and that's why the Tar Heels have to be the favorite come March.