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Final Election Poll Shows Canada’s Liberal Party Could Win a Majority

Polling firm Forum Research's latest survey shows Justin Trudeau’s party is at 40 percent support, compared to 30 percent for the ruling Conservatives, and 20 percent for the NDP.

by Justin Ling
Oct 19 2015, 1:00am

Paul Chiasson/The Canadian Press

With Canadians just hours away from heading to the voting booth, a new poll provided in advance to VICE News predicts the Liberal Party is on track for a big win on Monday evening.

The Forum Research survey puts Justin Trudeau's Liberals at 40 percent — the highest result they've achieved thus far in the 78-day campaign — meaning the third-place party could be in a position to sweep into power with a majority government.

The poll puts the governing Conservatives at just 30 percent, and the official opposition New Democratic Party, who entered the campaign with a strong lead, in third place at 20 percent.

Forum may be the last pollster to release data on the campaign before the national ban on polling data comes into effect, at 10:30pm EST.

The polling company's projections — which are estimates of how many seats the parties could win, given their regional support — put the Liberals in majority territory, with 171 seats, the Conservatives well behind, with 109 seats, and the NDP in a distant third place, with just 46 seats.

Forum expects the Bloc Quebecois, which was nearly demolished in the 2011 election, will win 11 seats, and the Green Party will win a single seat, ostensibly the one held by party leader Elizabeth May.

While the Forum poll shows the Liberal Party significantly ahead of where other polling firms have put the party — including previous polls from Forum itself — all firms have marked a steady rise for Trudeau's party in the final days of the campaign.

A poll from earlier on Sunday evening put the Liberals at 38 percent, while another had them at 36 percent.

Ultimately, horserace numbers may be misleading. Because Liberal support remains concentrated in urban areas and Atlantic Canada, the results on Monday evening are far from clear.

Forum Research contacted 1,373 randomly-selected Canadians on October 18th, the last day before voters head to the poll. It is considered accurate, +/- 3 percent, 19 times out of 20.

The full details of the poll are available here. The regional numbers show that Liberal support is increasing in every region of the country. 

VICE will have full election coverage beginning at 6:30 EST on Monday.

Follow Justin Ling on Twitter@justin_ling