The news that the FBI was once again looking into emails related to Hillary Clinton’s private server set off a bout of hysteria among the political press, Beltway pundits, and campaign officials. But it doesn’t seem to have changed very many voters’ minds in the final week before the election.
FBI Director James Comey said Friday that the bureau was reviewing the emails after finding them during a separate investigation. It was later revealed that they belonged to longtime Clinton aide Huma Abedin and were found on a computer belonging to her estranged husband, former Congressman Anthony Weiner.
Polls taken right after Comey’s announcement Friday show it had little significant effect on public opinion. RealClearPolitics’ polling average shows Clinton is still beating Trump by nearly two points — pretty much the same margin she had over him last week.
Nate Silver’s election forecaster at FiveThirtyEight.com has the odds of Clinton winning at a relatively steady 66 percent. And a new poll by Reuters released Thursday shows Clinton leading Trump by 6 points among national voters, the same as before the FBI’s announcement.
But if the past 18 months have taught us anything, it’s that making predictions in this election is an exercise in futility. There are five days to go till Election Day — and that’s still a lot of news cycles.
Betting markets are also favoring a decisive Clinton win. But the markets also predicted that the UK would not vote to leave the European Union by similar margins at roughly the same point in the Brexit campaign. We all know how that turned out.
Still, the path for a Trump victory remains extremely narrow. He would have to deliver an unprecedented kind of upset and sweep almost every single swing state in order to get the requisite 270 electoral votes to become president. The Trump campaign has been assuring everyone that a wave of silent voters will show up at the polls Tuesday and elect him. But there is scant evidence to support that.
Trump campaign manager KellyAnne Conway may have realized the odds her candidate is facing. She tweeted after the Chicago Cubs won the World Series last night that the world should expect a similar “miracle” to deliver Trump to the White House.