Repealing the Affordable Care Act Could Kill 1.2 Million Jobs

The Republican plan to repeal the Affordable Care Act will result in the loss of 1.2 million jobs across the country in 2019, according to a new report. And the job losses wouldn't only be in the healthcare sector.

The analysis from the Economic Policy Institute looks at how cuts to both federal spending and taxes (which would happen under a full repeal), would impact the country's economy as a whole. The report estimated that repealing the ACA would cut federal spending by $109 billion and taxes by $70 billion in 2019—and the spending cuts would harm job growth more than the tax cuts would help it.

That's because the expected cuts of two Medicare taxes will disproportionately go to higher-income households earning more than $200,000 for individuals or $250,000 for couples, while cuts in federal spending (aka health insurance benefits and subsidies to help people afford said insurance) would increase out-of-pocket costs like premiums and copays for low- and moderate-income households. The EPI report notes that higher earners tend to save significant portions of increases in disposable income but cash-strapped households are more likely to spend it. With less disposable income, these families will spend less in their local economies.

Jobs would be lost across the country because of decreases in spending, but certain states would be hit harder than others—specifically, ones that expanded eligibility for Medicaid. The EPI says these 15 states stand to lose the most jobs, measured by jobs lost relative to both total employment and to its share of residents under age 65: Arizona, Colorado, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, and West Virginia.

Besides North Carolina, every state on that list adopted the Medicaid expansion. And President Donald Trump, who promised to create millions of jobs during his campaign, won six of those states.

EPI Research Director Josh Bivens emphasized in a release that lost jobs are just secondary damage from repealing the Affordable Care Act. "The most important reason to oppose repealing the ACA is the 20 million Americans who would lose health insurance. But layered on top of this loss is a potential macroeconomic shock that would likely significantly affect job growth."