Christopher Harris' Fantasy Football Mailbag Week 5

Join Christopher Harris live on VICE Sports' Facebook page on Sunday at noon ET to ask him your game day fantasy questions. For fantasy football advice based on film review every single weekday from now until 2017, listen to the Harris Football Podcast at www.HarrisFootball.com.

Kyle: In the preseason, you said everyone thinking of picking David Johnson should remember C.J. Anderson. Has he changed your opinion?

Of course he has. (And in my head, I'm hearing Kyle's voice delivering an appropriate amount of snark.) D.J. was awesome again on Thursday night against the 49ers, and can lay claim to being the No. 2 running back in fantasy right now, behind only Le'Veon Bell. I was wary of him entering 2016, and being wary of him turned out not to be the right call. However, Kyle brings up an interesting point: Should an analyst—fantasy or otherwise—invalidate his or her thought process because the results didn't turn out as expected? I would argue no, or at least not automatically. Not knee-jerk.

Because Kyle was communicating over Twitter, he wasn't able to capture the full extent of my summer contentions regarding Johnson. I wasn't against owning him in a fantasy league, but I was against taking him in the first round of your draft. No two ways about it, that turned out to be wrong. But would I use the same thought process again? I think I would. Johnson had started five games in his NFL career. No question, he'd submitted some super-awesome and fun runs on film. He'd also been alarmingly meh in the '15 season finale against the Seahawks and had been less than meh in two playoff games. My thinking went: Where have I seen this movie before? C.J. Anderson circa '14 had been very nice in December, was a consensus first-round fantasy pick, and busted hard. My intention with Johnson was to inject some sense of possible downside: yes, he'd had strong moments and flashed excellent power and balance and north/south speed, but he'd done it in a small sample size, and I can point to many more examples than Anderson of players who had similarly good late-season auditions and bonked.

As it turned out, D.J.'s December cameo was the tip of the iceberg, and now we're getting a monster producer in the Cardinals backfield. Part of being Arizona's running back is getting to not rush against stacked defensive fronts—even with Carson Palmer out and Drew Stanton in on Thursday night, the 49ers never really stacked the box, because Arizona goes spread so frequently—and Johnson is taking advantage. Definitely a bad call by me! I'll try extra-hard to squint at the film next summer and make sure about this year's late-season wonders. Still, when you're searching for safety in your fantasy first round, some skepticism is warranted.

Cam: Great call on Matt Ryan last week. Even a tougher challenge this week. Do you believe he can perform better than the last four QBs to try at Denver?

I ranked Ryan No. 8 among fantasy QBs this week, after putting him No. 3 at home against the Panthers in Week 4, so I agree with Cam: this is a tough spot. The Broncos have a world-historic defense. They do it with edge pressure and with a secondary that's ultra-physical and skilled in coverage. This is an awesome, amazing matchup to watch, because the Falcons suddenly have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Usually in the past 30 or so games, when Denver meets some fly-by-night "best offensive line," they crush them. We'll see.

I expect the Broncos to win. Hell, I expect the Broncos to cover. But I don't expect a shutout. Julio Jones won't go for 300, and in fact probably won't catch more than five passes, but he's deadly. Ryan will throw it 40-plus times, and he'll probably be picked once or twice, but he'll also move the rock. In deciding that Ryan is still a fantasy starter this week (albeit a lower-level one), I had to choose between probably the NFL MVP in the season's first month and players like Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, and Eli Manning who have better matchups—how could they not?—but haven't played as well. I'm amenable to the idea of benching Ryan for matchup concerns. I think he'll lose Sunday. But I decided to advocate for playing the guy who's red-hot, and hoping he does just enough. Give me 18 fantasy points, Matty Ice, and I'll walk away glad.

RotoLibrarian: How do you see the rest of the year playing out for Dez Bryant?

I still think he'll be fine. A couple weeks ago in the mailbag we asked the question of whether I was buying or selling on Dez, and I said my preference would be to "hold," but forced to actually answer the question, I'd buy. In the two weeks since, that hasn't looked very smart. Bryant injured his knee in Week 3 against the Bears; he actually returned in that game to catch Dak Prescott's first career touchdown pass, but hasn't played since. He missed Week 4 against the 49ers and is widely expected to sit Sunday against the Bengals.

So far, people closer to the situation than I are saying this injury is a bone bruise, and thus while it's painful, it's expected to heal soon and not present problems going forward. If that's the case, then I still say Dez is a buy. In fact, I'm almost certain his price is lower now than it was two weeks ago. I think you could offer Terrance West and Michael Crabtree and get Bryant, and I would do that. Prescott is a safe quarterback who won't push passes far downfield all that often, but Dez can play the possession game well. And if and when Tony Romo returns—the Cowboys are leaking reports they expect him back around Week 8—the Romo/Bryant connection can continue apace. I'm still optimistic for Dez.

Jessica R. emails: The Odell Beckham owner in my league is shopping him around. Should I consider buying, and if so, what price should I pay? How worried are you about his on-field outbursts?

Like Dez, Beckham is absolutely a player I'd like to buy at the right price. In fact, the Friday edition of my podcast has a list of my top five trade targets after four weeks, and Beckham comes in at No. 1 on that list. I'm with you, Jessica, I'd be trying to get him.

ODB's Week 3 sideline tirade, in which he lost a shoving match with a kicking net? It wasn't great. But it's something we've seen Dez Bryant do a dozen times. Beckham isn't freaking out there because he hates his teammates or coaches; he's immature and he's letting his competitiveness get the better of him. He wants to win, and he knows he's the best playmaker the Giants have, and he thinks if the ball comes to him more he can change his team's scoreboard fate. It's dopey, I grant you. Like many 23-year-olds, Beckham doesn't have enough control of his emotions, but his job is high profile and his outbursts become national news. At the same time, let's slow our roll about how out of control he was Monday night against the Vikings. There were a couple late shoving matches out of bounds, and on at least one of them ODB had a point.

Life offers no guarantees, but I feel strongly that a huge Beckham game is coming. Do defenses roll safeties his way? Yup. Have they been doing that for more than a year now? Yup. Beckham's speed, quickness, and leaping ability are unguardable when he gets on a roll, no matter how many defensive backs are on him. If he doesn't bust out Sunday night against the Packers, he'll do it against the Ravens or the Rams. It's coming.

As for compensation? You're going to have to pay. The Beckham owner in your league paid a top-five pick and no matter how frustrated he or she is, will expect excellent parts in return. I like Beckham so much that I'd trade C.J. Anderson for him straight up. I'd trade LeSean McCoy and Travis Benjamin for him. I'd give up real assets. I believe.

cmval5454: Would you rather have Terrelle Pryor or Sterling Shepard for the rest of the season?

I'll still say Shepard, but I'll admit these past two weeks have given me pause. In fact, Pryor's Week 4 work against Washington was more impressive than Week 3, because the opposition had a week to prepare for these Hue Jackson Browns, who are playing a lot of Wildcat and who are starting to treat Pryor like a go-to No. 1 receiver. In the first half—even with Josh Norman covering him—they couldn't stop Pryor.

In the end, though, I can't get past the Brownsiness of the situation. Cody Kessler has been alarmingly competent under center but he's also faced so-so Miami and Washington defensive units that weren't able to put much pressure on him or confuse him. I'm intrigued to see how he looks Sunday against the Belichicks. Pryor, though, has done a pretty good two-week Josh Gordon impersonation. One more time, and I'm going to have to start ranking him in my top 100 for the rest of the season.

Shepard, meanwhile, will always be second fiddle to Beckham, but still gets plenty of looks out of the slot for the Giants. I think he's been excellent. He even made a couple plays early against the Vikings in Week 4—more than ODB could say—though after that he was silenced along with the rest of New York's receiving corps. Shepard is a reliable source of low-risk targets in the middle of the field, he's a bear to cover one-on-one in the end zone, and his open-field quickness is awesome. I agree that because the Giants have a more crowded receiving corps, Shepard might have a bit less weekly upside than someone like Pryor, who is his team's main dude. But for the moment I'd still pick Shepard.

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