The Oakland Raiders Are Fool's Gold

At one point against the Panthers on Sunday, the entire Oakland Raiders season appeared to hang in the balance. Quarterback Derek Carr suffered a dislocated finger, backup Matt McGloin was in, and Oakland's 17-point lead disappeared in the third quarter. Visions of Cincinnati and Houston—past would-be AFC contenders who lost their quarterbacks and, subsequently, their seasons—danced in our heads.

Carr eventually returned to action wearing a glove, and promptly led the Raiders to a one-score win, driving the team 82 yards for the go-ahead Sebastian Janikowski field goal. With 1:11 still left in the game, Carolina seemed to be in good position to answer—they were on Oakland's side of the field and had all their timeouts—but two incompletions, one Greg Olsen drop, and a sack later, Oakland pulled victory from the jaws of defeat.

The Raiders got lucky, and it's not the first time. While Oakland's big spending in free agency signaled a team that was ready to compete for the AFC West crown, the basic principles of regression seemed stacked against them heading into the season. Looking at recent NFL history, teams that saw the kind of improvement Oakland did last year are more likely to slide backward than to keep climbing upward. That hasn't happened to the Raiders, or at least not yet—12 weeks into 2016, they're tied with the New England Patriots for the best record in the AFC—but let's talk about why this is a bit of fool's gold.

Oakland's Record in One-Score Games Is Statistically Unsustainable

Oakland is 7-1 in one-score games this year (and the only team they've blown out was the lowly Jaguars). Rather than implying some sort of hidden clutchness or "learning to win," however, this is more just about simple, random luck.

It was good fortune that Greg Olsen dropped a ball that would've almost assuredly let Carolina tie Week 12's game. It was fortunate that in Mexico City, referees spotted the Texans short twice on a drive that would've given them go-ahead points. It took overtime in Tampa for Oakland to win. It took a missed field goal by the Chargers for Oakland to win their fourth game. And so on.

This isn't to say the Raiders aren't good. Their offensive breakthrough last year was real, and they've played a pretty decent schedule this season. It's just that they've been good and fortunate. And that good fortune doesn't always last.

A good example of that was just across the field from the Raiders on Sunday. The Panthers went 10-3-1 in one-score games over the 2014 and 2015 seasons; they are 2-5 in those games this year, and 4-7 overall.

And Oakland's Defense Is Really Bad

Oakland finished 15th in defensive DVOA in 2015, on the heels of a late-season surge. (DVOA is a measure of play-by-play efficiency that uses yards to create a success rate, then measures against competition relative to average.) Much of their free-agent spending in the off-season came on defense: linebacker Bruce Irvin from Seattle, corner Sean Smith from Kansas City, and safety Reggie Nelson from Cincinnati. All three had been good in their last stops; combined with star linebacker Khalil Mack, the Raiders defense was expected to reach new heights in 2016.

Except, well, they haven't. In fact, they've been much worse. The Raiders defense has been shredded by every decent quarterback they've played this season—and even Brock Osweiler had his best game of the season against them. Oakland was 29th in defensive DVOA through Week 11, and then on Sunday they gave up 32 points to a struggling Panthers outfit that can't keep Cam Newton clean in the pocket.

While the pass rush hasn't notched too many sacks, they at least have been average to above average in pressure rate (13th in the NFL, according to Sports Info Solutions). Mack has been excellent, as he again showed on Sunday. Smith has settled down after a tough start, and Irvin has been a decent complementary edge rusher. I will even give Nelson the benefit of the doubt and say that he's been solid.

Where things start getting deplorable is the run defense. They're second to last in the NFL in percentage of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage; only the Broncos are worse. Most of this points toward a weakness Oakland didn't address in the off-season: their off-ball linebackers. Malcolm Smith's amazing Super Bowl performance with the Seahawks in 2014 increasingly looks more like a fluke than a sign of untapped potential at starter. At the other spot, the Raiders rotated youth heavily and wound up with linebacker Perry Riley, plucked from Washington's preseason scrapheap, playing the lion's share of the snaps.

This area of the field is fertile ground not only for opponents' run games but their passing games, as well. Teams have a 34.3 percent DVOA when throwing passes labeled as "short middle" against Oakland, compared to an average of 3.1 percent across the entire league. Combined with the Raiders' weak run defense, it forces the team into bad down-and-distance scenarios. Even when the pressure gets there, dump-offs generate positive yardage; unable to stop the run game, the Raiders defense needs offensive penalties or big plays simply to get off the field.

The Raiders are still a good team, with a multi-faceted offense that can run clock in tight games while throwing all over teams in shootouts. It's clear, however, that they're not quite in New England's league as an AFC juggernaut just yet. Oakland still relies on chance, whereas the truly dominant teams create their own.

Want to read more stories like this from VICE Sports? Subscribe to our daily newsletter.