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Here's Why the Blue Jays Can Pull off the Unthinkable ALCS Comeback

The pitching matchups are about as good as the Blue Jays could ask for as they attempt to join the 2004 Red Sox as the only teams to advance to the World Series after falling down 3-0.
Photo by Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Less than 24 hours ago the outcome of the American League Championship Series was essentially determined, and you'd be far from crazy if you don't think anything has changed.

The Blue Jays took the Rogers Centre field Tuesday down 3-0, with slim chances of clawing back against the Indians to advance to the World Series. This was less a reflection of how much Toronto's been outplayed, and more a case of history and probability, as only the 2004 Red Sox have rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win a best-of-seven series. Teams that have taken a 3-0 series lead are 34-1.

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Cleveland and Toronto had very similar numbers across the board, despite the Indians entering Tuesday's contest a win away from sweeping a second straight series and advancing to the Fall Classic for the first time since 1997. But that didn't happen. And now, after doing enough against ace Corey Kluber on short rest, you can see a path to victory for the Blue Jays, as unlikely and farfetched as it might be.

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Cleveland won 2-1, 2-0, and 4-2, before Toronto held the Indians to two hits in a 5-1 victory on Tuesday to stay alive. Both teams have received exceptional pitching, and as a result haven't done much of a thing offensively.

A solo homer by the Bringer of Rain got the Blue Jays going in Game 4, and they never looked back. Photo by Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Indians are hitting .164 through four games with a .224 on-base percentage and .526 OPS. Toronto is barely better, swinging .203 with a .264 OBP and .561 OPS.

Cleveland has a 1.80 ERA and 1.06 WHIP; the Blue Jays are at 2.38 and 0.82, respectively.

While the likelihood of Toronto winning Game 5 at home and then two on the road in Cleveland might be remote, it's not as if the Blue Jays have been slaughtered—this hasn't been the lopsided series that a 3-0 lead would indicate. A four-game win streak to capture the AL pennant shouldn't be entirely dismissed. Toronto reeled off at least four straight wins on eight different occasions this season, playoffs included.

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The Blue Jays scored more runs in their Game 4 victory than they had in the previous three games combined after putting up 22 in a three-game ALDS sweep of the Rangers. Toronto's unpredictable offence, a year after scoring over 100 more runs than any team in baseball, finished ninth this year, but ranked 22nd in baseball post-All-Star break and dead last in the AL in September (the Marlins were the only team to score fewer runs than the Blue Jays in the month).

Still, for the Blue Jays to muster only three runs through three contests—one of which was started by Josh Tomlin, and another that was essentially a bullpen game after Trevor Bauer only gave the Indians 0.2 innings of work—was surprising. Averaging more than one run per game shouldn't be a problem, especially not for a lineup featuring Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Troy Tulowitzki. Donaldson's third-inning solo homer off Kluber in Game 4 was the first time the Blue Jays had a lead in the series.

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But after Tuesday's five-run outburst, the Blue Jays have only been outscored by a single run through four games, despite entering the day with a chance of getting swept.

For all the talk about Cleveland's bullpen (which has been dynamite) and the Blue Jays' offence (which has been horrible), Toronto's 'pen has been terrific, while the Indians aren't hitting, either.

The Roberto Osuna-led bullpen has come up huge for Toronto. Photo by Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

The Indians built early leads and sustained them to jump ahead 3-0, with Terry Francona taking advantage of his lockdown bullpen, which didn't allow a run in this series until Game 3, when six relievers threw 8.1 innings of two-run ball after Bauer's bloody start.

Cleveland will send Ryan Merritt to the mound in Game 5. If you're asking who he is, you're not alone. Blue Jays players weren't familiar with the soft-tossing lefty who has a chance to end their season today.

Merritt has been toiling around in the minors since 2011 and made his major league debut this season, throwing 11 innings over four appearances, including one start. He hasn't pitched since Sept. 30 and will oppose Marco Estrada, who has been lights out in two postseason starts, one of which was a complete-game loss in the series opener.

At home, that matchup certainly favours Toronto. If the Blue Jays win it, things will then get more difficult with the rest of the series being played in Cleveland. But the Blue Jays would then get another shot at Tomlin, the home-run happy pitcher who contained Toronto in Game 2. If the Blue Jays exact revenge on Tomlin and take Game 6, it would set them up for a winner-take-all showdown against Kluber, who would be making his second consecutive start on three days' rest after having never done so once throughout his big-league career.

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Toronto would follow Estrada with lefty J.A. Happ. Win, and the team would likely have all hands on deck minus those two. Marcus Stroman could start Game 7 on normal rest and you'd have to believe should the Blue Jays get that far that Aaron Sanchez, who looked tremendous in Game 4, would have bullets to spare out of the bullpen.

Let's also not dismiss what Toronto's bullpen has done, firing 9.2 scoreless innings in the LCS while playing in the shadows of the Andrew Miller-led Tribe 'pen. For the postseason as a whole, the Blue Jays' relief corps own a 0.76 ERA in 23.2 innings while holding opponents to a .114 batting average. The only runs the bullpen has surrendered came in Game 2 of the ALDS, when Francisco Liriano allowed two eighth-inning runs in a 5-3 win.

So you're telling me there's a chance… Photo by Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Beating the AL Central champs in four straight is a longshot, but the matchups are about as good as the Blue Jays could ask for in their quest to duplicate the 2004 Red Sox and pull off an improbable comeback.

Going through Merritt at home with Estrada on the mound, Tomlin, and then Kluber in a coin flip Game 7, at least on paper gives you what should be a puncher's chance. It's certainly better than having to go through some combination of Danny Salazar (out), Carlos Carrasco (out), Bauer (hurt), and Kluber.

If Toronto's offence—the same one that battered Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish—can break out and give its pitching staff a lead, and the next two games certainly would appear to be solid opportunities to do so, it would also minimize the Miller-Cody Allen factor. Those two haven't allowed a postseason run, while striking out 30 in 15.2 innings.

Having hope is one thing, but Toronto appears to have more than that. The Blue Jays, who didn't show up to Game 4 dejected and then roll over, actually have what appears to be a chance.