How Not to Manage the First Round of the MLB Draft

Major League Baseball's annual amateur draft kicks off on Thursday, and like the drafts of all the other major sports it is the funnest thing in the world to second-guess. Some picks we second-guess for justice: In 1966 the New York Mets picked catcher Steve Chilcott at 1/1 over consensus best talent Reggie Jackson due to something that still looks very much like racism. Some picks we second-guess for frustration: In 2004, San Diego Padres ownership didn't want to pay for an actual player, which forced the team to tank the pick on Matt Bush, simultaneously depriving a franchise that needed star power of a chance to have one and bringing someone into baseball who later did a bunch of really terrible things. Some picks we second-guess just because they're so wrong-headed, like the Detroit Tigers taking college reliever Matt Anderson, who was supposed to be an instant bullpen band-aid, at 1/1 in 1997. He wasn't, which makes it all the more galling was that Anderson's Rice University teammate, Lance Berkman, was right there on the draft board.

Make no mistake, though, that for all but the most dedicated of us it is second-guessing; sometimes it is for the pros as well. Ben Zobrist was a sixth-round pick. Mark Melancon was a ninth-rounder. Don Mattingly was picked by the New York Yankees in the 19th round, after all the teams who actually cared about the draft had practically picked entire rosters. Mike Piazza, 62nd-round pick, you know about. After a certain point in the draft, no one really knows anything.

The point at which teams have the best information is the first round. Even then, that doesn't stop the odd Mike Trout from hanging around until the 25th pick, in his case quite possibly because no scout wanted to visit that part of New Jersey. Generally, though, the returns are strongest up top, and while there have been many a complete miss in the first round, it's where teams have the best chance to find their next MVP or Cy Young Award winner.

But since second-guessing is the point of the game, we thought we would look at the teams that have done the least in the first round, cumulatively speaking, since the first MLB draft in 1965. We ranked them by adding up the career Wins Above Replacement of the players selected by those teams, regardless of to which team they ultimately contributed those wins. Below, the bottom ten.

Disclaimers: All statistics via Baseball-Reference. The four most recent expansion teams were not considered. June draft only; defunct phases such as the January draft were not considered. "Clean misses" count recent picks that still have time to surface. Second-guess responsibly.

Total WAR from First Round: 238.7

Best: RHP Justin Verlander (45.2 WAR) went second overall in the 2004 draft after Padres ownership insisted local high school shortstop Matt Bush be popped at the top of the draft, on the strength of his signability and superior spoonerism. Lucking into Verlander gave the Tigers a chance to make a good call in a part of the draft that hasn't been kind to them. Not that there's anything wrong with Lance Parrish, Kirk Gibson, or Travis Fryman, but other teams have found Hall of Famers in this round.

Worst Who Actually Made It: SS Tom Veryzer (11th overall, 1971; -3.7) hit .241/.283/.294 in 12 major league seasons. Playing regularly for the Tigers in 1977, Veryzer hit .197/.230/.254, for a 30 OPS+. Normally that would kill a career pretty dead, but the Tigers traded Veryzer to Cleveland and he somehow played more, because in those years as long as you could fog a mirror the Indians would play you.

Clean Misses to Date: 22

Gave Up a First-Rounder for Who? The Tigers gave up the 15th overall pick of the 1991 draft to the Milwaukee Brewers in return for OF Rob Deer. Deer was the prototypical late-period Sparky Anderson player: he hit home runs, he walked, and he was virtually inert in every other respect. Deer had three seasons with the Tigers. The bookends were terrible, but the one in the middle—.247/.337/.547—was the best of his career.

Total WAR from First Round: 239.5

Best: It was Rafael Palmeiro (22nd overall, 1985; 71.6). Alas, he barely played for the Cubs because manager Don Zimmer and general manager Jim Frey failed to notice he had hit .294/.341/.462 in the chances they had given him from ages 21 to 23. Basically, they treated him as if he were the first coming of Nick Markakis. Later pharmaceutical weirdness or no, Palmeiro was a great deal more than that and the team made a huge mistake in making him part of a mega-deal with the Texas Rangers that brought back Mitch Williams. Yes, Williams helped the Cubs get to the postseason, but the whole flags fly forever thing is overrated; not all flags come at an acceptable price.

Worst Who Actually Made It: We could talk about Scot Thompson (seventh overall, 1974; -5.5), a first baseman who didn't hit, but let's give a special shout-out to 1980 11th overall pick Don Schulze, (-1.8), who on June 21, 1981, was tackled by the San Diego Chicken during a game at Quad Cities, Iowa, and suffered a shoulder separation. He missed six weeks. It's impossible to say if his career was damaged or not, but with a career 15-25 record and a 5.47 ERA it seems safe to say it didn't help. All these years later, the Chicken joking about it afterward still strikes a sour note—this is a man's dream you're laughing at, you dumb bird.

Clean Misses to Date: 25

Best Cubs-Related Draft Humor: With the first overall pick in the 1982 draft, the Cubs selected high school shortstop Shawon Dunston. This was rapidly second-guessed because the fifth overall pick turned out to be teenage sensation Dwight Gooden. "Well, of course we took Dunston over Gooden," someone quipped. "Dunston had a better arm." There was some truth in that: Dunston threw bullets from the shortstop hole. The problem was they didn't always land near first base.

Total WAR from First Round: 256.5

Best: Due to free agent signings, the Yankees haven't actually had many first-round picks. The best by far was SS Derek Jeter (sixth overall, 1992; 71.8), followed by C Thurman Munson (fourth, 1968; 45.9). After that, there's a huge drop-off to two guys who never played for them, OF Carl Everett (expansion draft, controversial opinions about dinosaurs) and LHP Scott McGregor (trade).

Worst Who Actually Made It: The Yankees haven't promoted many bad players because, since George Steinbrenner bought the team, they won't give a young player a job unless he's Derek Jeter, and even then Tony Fernandez had to get hurt so badly they had no choice. The worst draft pick, statistically, was RHP Bill Burbach (19th overall in 1965; -1.1), but more typical of latter-year Yankees drafting is 2007 30th overall pick Andrew Brackman (0.1), a college basketball player with a bum arm the Yanks were sure could figure out how to pitch. His career minor league record was 17-35 with a 5.38 ERA and 5.1 walks per nine innings. The Yankees gave him 2.1 innings in the majors in 2011—he debuted the same night as Dellin Betances—and then allowed him to quietly depart.

Clean Misses to Date: 25

Gave Up a First-Rounder for Who? Oh, God. How long have you got? Let surrendering the 23rd overall pick in 1985 to the Padres for RHP Ed Whitson stand for the rest, but there are a lot.

Total WAR from First Round: 260.1

Best: SS Barry Larkin (fourth overall, 1985; 70.2). There's really no one else. The next two players on the list, Gary Nolan and Don Gullett, were excellent pitchers who couldn't stay healthy enough to put up strong career numbers. After that, there are a lot of what-were-they-thinking guys like Pokey Reese. Yes, this is all with the benefit of hindsight, but the Reds have been so consistent in picking players who were at best complementary pieces—Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier rank higher on this list than they should, given that it covers five-plus decades—that it seems fair to carp. The three players selected before Larkin in 1985 were B.J. Surhoff, Will Clark, and Bobby Witt. Barry Bonds was taken two picks later.

Worst Who Actually Made It: RHP Scott Scudder (17th overall, 1986; -1.2). After giving him a few shots and even letting him pitch a bit in their successful 1990 postseason, the Reds traded Scudder to the Indians for Greg Swindell's last good year as a starter. Swindell was worth 5.3 WAR that year and then left as a free agent. Whereas a team would want more from a first-round pick than five career WAR, you have to concede that the Reds sort of salvaged the situation.

Clean Misses to Date: 28

Gave Up a First-Rounder for Who? They have given away first-round picks to sign Larry Biittner, Eddie Milner, and Damon Berryhill. Total WAR for those three: -0.6. Sometimes it's hard to tell if a team's management didn't understand the value of a first-round pick or was just trying to tank it to avoid paying a bonus.

Total WAR from First Round: 271.7

Best: OF/RHP/TE/SF/Demigod Dave Winfield (63.8) was drafted by both the NBA and the NFL in 1973, but the Padres signed him after taking him fourth in the MLB draft that same year. Players taken ahead of Winfield: LHP David Clyde (who was rushed to the majors directly out of high school and flamed out), C John Stearns, and SS Robin Yount.

Worst Who Actually Made It: There's a rough three-way tie among pitchers Ray Hayward (tenth overall, 1983; -1.8) and Jimmy Jones (-2.9)—the Padres selected Jones, a high school pitcher, third overall in 1982, leaving the aforementioned Mr. Gooden on the board—and 1B Randy Elliott (24th overall, 1969; -1.7). The best thing you can say about Elliott's career is that the Padres had their Triple-A team in Hawaii in the early 1970s and he got to spend parts of three seasons there. As a non-tropical major leaguer, he hit .215/.262/.354.

Clean Misses to Date: 27

Gave Up a First-Rounder for Who? They handed the 17th overall pick in 1992 to the Kansas City Royals via signing SS Kurt Stillwell. Stillwell, a busted first-round pick of the Reds back in 1982 (taken second overall), was released halfway through the 1993 season, which means the Pads sacrificed a possible six years of major league value for 57 games of buyer's remorse.

Total WAR from First Round: 282.6

Best: OF Manny Ramirez (13th overall, 1991; 69.2). LHP CC Sabathia (20th overall, 1998; 56.8) is next. That's pretty great, but it thins out rapidly from there.

Worst Who Actually Made It: SS Jack Heidemann (11th overall, 1967; -6.1) was drafted at age 17, had one killer season in the California League, was rushed to the majors at 18, missed most of a year in the National Guard, and upon returning was deemed a major-league-ready player regardless of what the evidence said. He hit .211/.265/.292 in 133 games and never got much better than that with the stick. A good defensive reputation, which is not evident in any of his fielding stats, kept him in the majors on and off until 1977.

Clean Misses to Date: 30

Gave Up a First-Rounder for Who? No disrespect to C Rick Dempsey, who had a very fine career, but the Indians did not need the 37-year-old version of him badly enough to vent the 15th overall pick of the 1987 draft. Adding injury to injury, on July 21, 1987, Bo Jackson decided to welcome Dempsey to the NFL on a play at the plate, ending both Dempsey's season and his Indians career with one blow.

Total WAR from First Round: 282.9

Best: Seton Hall University catcher Craig Biggio (22nd overall, 1987; 65.1) inspired Bill James to devote part of a book to arguing that he was the best player in baseball at the turn of the century. James might even have been right. Regardless, it was more interesting than worrying about the Y2K Problem.

Worst Who Actually Made It: RHP Brian Williams (31st overall, 1990; -4.0) was a supplemental first-rounder after the Astros forfeited the 15th overall pick to the San Francisco Giants for signing free agent 3B Ken Oberkfell. The Giants, thoughtfully, gifted Houston their own pick at No. 21 for signing away OF Kevin Bass. Houston used that pick on SS Tom Nevers, who nevers made the major leagues. Williams, for his part, never mastered the strike zone. To put his career rates of five walks and six strikeouts per nine innings in perspective, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was 1.2. The major league average in the 1990s was 1.7. Clayton Kershaw's is 3.9.

Clean Misses to Date: 22

Gave Up a First-Rounder for Who? The Rangers received the 24th overall pick in the 1981 draft after the Astros signed utility man Dave Roberts, who would have 59 plate appearances with the team.

Total WAR from First Round: 298.0

Best: LHP Clayton Kershaw (seventh overall, 2006; presently 51.0 and he wants to take you higher).

Worst Who Actually Made It: OF Bubba Crosby (23rd overall, 1998; -1.5) was traded to the Yankees with reliever Scott Proctor for the dregs of Robin Ventura's career. Crosby had a couple years of steady work as a defensive replacement for Gary Sheffield, who tended to circle incoming fly balls as if he were looking for parking.

Clean Misses to Date: 28. The most staggering was RHP Bill Bene, the fifth overall pick in 1988, who somehow walked 9.9 batters per nine innings in a minor-league career lasting nine seasons.

Gave Up a First-Rounder for Who? Signing Darryl Strawberry must have seemed like a good idea at the time, but the Straw-Man's substance abuse problems quickly soured his L.A. homecoming. When someone compared Strawberry to a dog, manager Tommy Lasorda replied, "He is not a dog. A dog is loyal and runs after balls." The Mets used the Dodgers' pick—No. 18 in the 1991 draft—on Al Shirley, whose best year was 1994, when he hit .213/.300/.426 with 23 home runs and 208 strikeouts in the Sally League.

Total WAR from First Round: 322.6

Best: SS Chipper Jones, first overall in 1990, by far (85.0). RHP Todd Van Poppel was the most hyped prospect going into the draft, and he did the Braves a huge favor by saying he wouldn't sign with them. He drifted down to the Oakland A's at No. 14. There should be an O. Henry story about a team delighted to receive a high-school pitcher they hadn't expected to get, being much too poor, but when they go to let him pitch it turns out he's only a doctored photograph of Nolan Ryan.

Worst Who Actually Made It: SS Pat Rockett (tenth overall; -5.5). Great baseball name or dirty complete sentence, Pat Rockett posted .400 OBPs through A-ball, but after that it was all hitting like a shortstop. Remember when Andy Samberg did "Like a Boss" on Saturday Night Live in 2009? "Like a Shortstop" is the polar opposite sequel we're still waiting for.

Clean Misses to Date: 20

Gave Up a First-Rounder for Who? They handed the Mets the 20th overall pick in the 1983 draft after signing LHP Pete Falcone. The Mets spent the pick on OF Stan Jefferson, who later became part of the package traded for Kevin McReynolds.

Total WAR from First Round: 325.0

Best: 1B Will Clark (second overall, 1985; 56.2). Matt Williams (third overall, 1986; 46.4) is next. One assumes Buster Posey (fifth overall, 2008; presently 30.0) or Madison Bumgarner (tenth overall, 2007; 22.5 to date) will eventually pass the latter if not the former.

Worst Who Actually Made It: SS Johnnie LeMaster (sixth overall, 1973; -5.4), a master of not-fielding and not-hitting. He once wore a uniform with the word "Boo" replacing his name. Upon his acquisition by the Indians, their second baseman, Tony Bernazard, was informed of the deal. "I don't mean to be rude," he said, "but who the hell is Johnnie LeMaster?" He was not alone.

Clean Misses to Date: 20

Gave Up a First-Rounder for Who? They gifted the 22nd overall pick in 2005 to the Florida Marlins for RHP Armando Benitez. In fairness to the Giants, Benitez was coming off the best season of his career. It also was his last good year in baseball.