Nebraska Needs Some Luck—and a Reality Check

Every fan base has delusional members—check any college football message board after a loss for proof—but there's something different about Nebraska. When the team loses, as the 3-5 Cornhuskers are doing right now, the tenor of conversation is not just sadness but entitlement, and what this program really deserves. And boy, do Nebraska fans think they deserve a lot more. A sample:

[Hire] a Husker like Scott Frost or [swing] for the fences and get Jon Gruden. You might think that's a pipe dream but don't forget, this is Nebraska. Don't act like we can't get anyone we want. Just hire the right coach and we will win.

Perhaps this commenter is a bit extreme, but this entitlement seems pervasive at Nebraska, whose athletic director, Shawn Eichorst, fired Bo Pelini last year because consistently winning nine games apparently wasn't good enough. This came a decade after the Huskers fired coach Frank Solich for doing the same thing.

Nebraska wants a consistent national contender. But is that realistic in the current college football environment? No.

Nebraska hasn't won a conference title since 1999, and has played in only one major bowl game; they've been surpassed by Big Ten rivals Iowa and Wisconsin, who have combined for five major bowl appearances and five conference titles in that time. After nearly 20 years of above average but not great performances, it's safe to say that Nebraska is no longer an elite team. This is not an unfortunate run of futility with the wrong coaches; it's a symptom of an evolving college football world, which is markedly different from when Nebraska was last nationally relevant, and in which virtually every change has hurt the Huskers' ability to compete.

Back in 1995, the system favored a team like Nebraska. There were no major television deals, so teams with big brands that sold lots of tickets had the most money. The Huskers sold out every game in massive Memorial Stadium, and therefore had more resources than their peers. Because Nebraska was a winning team, its games were always on national television, which in turn made recruiting easy—everyone wanted to go to Nebraska, no matter where they were from, because they would be on TV every week.

It was a very different time for college football in other respects, too. Some of the players Nebraska recruited under head coach Tom Osborne in the 1990s would face a lot more scrutiny in today's environment. Take former star running back Lawrence Phillips, who was charged with domestic violence in Nebraska's 1995 season (and who is now in prison and being investigated for murdering his cellmate). Osborne kept him on the team, though, explaining, "I wouldn't call it a beating, but he certainly did inflict some damage to the young lady. She was dragged down some stairs and there were some injuries." The team would go on to win the national championship, with Phillips rushing for 165 yards and two touchdowns. In today's environment, it's unlikely he would have remained on the team.

Two decades of growth in college football have allowed the rest of the country to catch up to the Huskers. Everyone has big media rights deals these days, and Nebraska looks more like a top 25 program, resources-wise, than a national power. The Huskers rank 26th nationally in total revenue, according to USA Today, behind seven other Big Ten schools. Last year, they spent anywhere from $12 million to $25 million less than their Big Ten West rivals Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

The lack of exposure has caused a slip in recruiting. Nebraska is still above average but far from elite, according to 247 Sports.

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Taking all these factors into account, you should expect Nebraska to be a fringe top 25 program that can jump up in the rankings with a good season every once in awhile. That's basically how Nebraska has performed the past few years, according to the esteemed F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, which accounts for variables like luck.

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While Nebraska has been unlucky this year, losing a lot of close games that are usually coin flips, the larger story is not a run of bad coaches or misfortune. This is simply the reality of Nebraska's program.

Missing a bowl game is considered a disaster at Nebraska, and rightfully so. This team should be better than that, and likely will be once its fortunes turn around. New coach Mike Riley can absolutely get this team to consistent 8-4 or 9-3 seasons and mid-level bowl games if he's given the time. But will that be enough?

When Eichorst fired Pelini after the coach's ninth win last season, over Iowa, he arrogantly remarked that simply beating Iowa wasn't good enough if it only led to a 9-3 record.

"In the final analysis," he said, "I had to evaluate where Iowa was.

"We just, for whatever reason, weren't good enough in the games that mattered against championship-caliber opponents. And I didn't see that changing at the end of the day."

Eichorst has to evaluate where Nebraska is, too, because unless the Huskers find a time machine, they are going to have to live in a world where 9-3 seasons, with a few elite years sprinkled in there, are good enough.