NFL Key Performance Indicators: AFC West

Every spring, every NFL team looks to get better: they draft rookies, they sign free agents, they let underperforming players go. But when teams aren't being put to the test against each other, how can we know if they're really improving? Throughout July, VICE Sports will be identifying Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) for each squad: the things fans should be watching in August for hints about how their teams might perform come kickoff time.

Last season's 4-12 flop would have been a wretched swan song for the San Diego Chargers. With a move to Los Angeles increasingly likely, sticking the loyal home crowd with a disappointment like that on the way out of town would have been borderline cruel. But the Chargers are back—and, just like last year, they've got one foot in the past, and one in the future. Defensive stalwart and captain Eric Weddle is gone, but Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates linger on; the legendary combo are a combined 70 years old.

Meanwhile, a generation of replacements-in-waiting, like tight end Ladarius Green, has also been jettisoned. Can the new-new generation of Chargers step up before Grandpa Rivers and company step down?

• Joey Bosa Where He Belongs: Bosa was supposed to be one of the safest picks in the draft: a freakish, phenomenal athlete with great college production and scheme flexibility. He was supposed to be a can't-miss, but in an age where holdouts never happen, Bosa still hasn't signed his slotted deal, and if you squint, "scheme flexibility" looks an awful lot like "tweener" in the Chargers' 3-4 front. After missing OTAs and minicamp, the No. 3 overall pick needs to be on the field and looking like he's big enough to belong at defensive end, which is where the Chargers are expecting to play him.

• The Running Game Challenge: The Chargers dropped a first-round pick on tailback Melvin Gordon last season, yet scatback Danny Woodhead led the team in all-purpose yards out of the backfield. Gordon's average of 3.5 yards per carry on 184 carries is some extremely replacement-level stuff; with an offensive line that finished 31st in Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards returning intact, he's going to have to show more burst to the hole and more power once he gets there. One ray of hope: third-round rookie Max Tuerk, a flex center/guard with a great ability to get to the second level. Chargers fans should hope he flashes this ability early and often once pads start cracking.

• Corey Earning his Keep: Corey Liuget is blessed with the natural size, power, and athleticism to be one of the league's best interior defenders. He flashed enough of that talent to convince the Chargers to lavish a five-year, $51.3 million deal on him prior to last season—and last season he gave them very little in return. The Chargers finished 27th in rushing yards allowed and 29th in rushing touchdowns allowed, despite facing a league-median 16th-most rushing attempts. It's no wonder Pro Football Focus named Liuget's contract the worst of any interior defender in the NFL. Chargers fans should hope the Liuget who shows up for work this August looks more like the player they saw a few years ago.

Quarterback Derek Carr has transformed from a perennial doormat with an interesting teammate or two into a leader whose team is just one or two players away from being a contender. For an insider's take on the Raiders' 2016 KPIs, VICE Sports reached out to Lorenzo Neal, a 16-year NFL veteran and two-time All-Pro fullback who now covers Bay Area sports for 95.7 The Game. Neal is incredibly bullish about the Silver and Black: "Mark it down, write it," Neal said. "The Raiders will be in the playoffs this year." How will we know if his prophecy is on its way to being fulfilled?

• There's Murray Where That Came From: "The Raiders will have a top five, maybe top three offensive line," Neal said. The former fullback loves the size, power, and intensity of center Rodney Hudson, left guard Gabe Jackson, and free-agent right guard Kelechi Osemele. "Now you have two big guards who can get after you on third-and-one, so Latavius Murray, there's a lot of pressure on him to convert." Murray's reputation as a big-play back is well earned, but Neal believes there will be holes for him to hit in power situations—and a NFL tailback needs to be able to move the chains. "If he struggles," Neal warned, "look for [head coach] Jack Del Rio to not be as patient as he has been."

• Depth and Quality in the Secondary: "Karl Joseph is a guy to watch in training camp," Neal said of the first-round rookie pick. "The guy can hit. He's like a Bob Sanders—he can come and play down in the box. But he can do things Bob Sanders [couldn't] do. He has better feet than Bob Sanders; he can cover better." Neal loves Joseph's upside. "He has that dog in him, that X-Factor," he said. He also pointed out the Raiders' savvy acquisition of Sean Smith from the Kansas City Chiefs, and the very recent re-signing of cornerback David Amerson. If 2013 first-round pick D.J. Hayden can contribute at all now, it will be a bonus. Neal's most excited about all this talent learning from the Raiders' savvy secondary coaches. "I played with [defensive backs coach] Marcus Robinson on the Tennessee Titans. A very astute guy, with great attention to detail, and I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the Hall of Famer [assistant defensive backs coach] Rod Woodson." Raiders fans should see an immediate big step forward from this unit.

• Carr Keeping It Between the Lines: "The defense last year forced Carr to go out and win games," Neal said. "This year, if this Carr does not turn the ball over, and takes what the defense gives him, this team will win the AFC West." Neal knows the Raiders' offense is at its best when the big-armed Carr is hitting wunderkind receiver Amari Cooper deep, but forcing that connection when trying to play catch-up resulted in too many turnovers. "To me, the player under the most pressure this year is Derek Carr," he said. "The weapons are there, he's got a good enough defense, he cannot give opposing teams short fields. [If he cuts down on turnovers] they will go deep in the playoffs, and they will win."

Last year, a supremely talented Chiefs squad won 11 games in oddly unconvincing fashion, and then got bounced from the playoffs thanks to horrible clock management. This offseason, they managed to squeeze most of their stars back under the salary cap while still making additions; it's hard not to see them being at least as good this year as they were last.

The Chiefs have achieved Andy Reid-ness, in other words, but as much as they resemble the mid-aughts Eagles—too much talent to worry, but too many questions to be especially confident—it's tough to know whether they're at the level of lose-the-Super-Bowl Andy Reid or merely lose-the-Wild-Card Andy Reid. The answer depends partly upon the following KPIs:

• Gaines' Gains: The Chiefs' only significant free-agent loss, No. 1 cornerback Sean Smith, will be replaced by boom-or-bust youngster Marcus Peters taking over the top spot (and, in theory, smoothing out the mistakes). But Peters' promotion leaves a vacuum at the No. 2 spot. 2014 third-round pick Phillip Gaines is the presumptive starter, but he has never impressed in limited action and is coming off a season-ending ACL injury. The Chiefs drafted three defensive backs this spring, perhaps as insurance; if Gaines doesn't make the most of his chance, third-rounder KeiVarae Russell could be pressed into service.

• Charles in Charge: Superstar tailback Jamaal Charles is returning from his second ACL rupture in five seasons; at age 29, his full-speed return is much less sure this time around. Charcandrick West performed well in relief last season, but he isn't near Charles' caliber. The two-time All-Pro may be limited at the start of camp, per ESPN'S Adam Teicher; until Chiefs fans see him fully recovered, there's cause for concern. The headline on Teicher's story is the even slower ACL recovery timeline of All-Pro pass-rusher Justin Houston—but Houston is younger, and the Chiefs are far deeper at his position than at Charles'.

• A Less Offensive Line: 2013 No. 1 overall pick Eric Fisher has been slowly, painfully peeling the 'bust' label off himself; the Chiefs' willingness to pick up his fifth-year option proves they at least believe his rights will be worth paying to squat on. Mitch Morse, the 2015 second-rounder who was supposed to replace Rodney Hudson at center last year but blew out his knee in preseason, will finally get the chance. Fourth-round rookie guard Parker Ehinger figures to get in the mix, and prize free-agent acquisition Mitchell Schwartz is one of the best young right tackles in the game. If 'if' stacks on top of 'if' stacks on top of 'if,' the Chiefs' offensive line figures to be significantly improved from a unit that ranked 28th in Football Outsiders' pass-protection metric last year. If not, it's hard to see the Chiefs catching up to the AFC's elite. Fans should keep a close eye on all the talented youngsters, and whether they play well enough to answer the longstanding questions up front.

They won the Super Bowl. They did it with a ferocious, relentless defense that somehow got even better in the playoffs. They did it with a fantastic corps of pass-catchers and key plays from multi-dimensional tailback C.J. Anderson. They did it with a knackered legend under center.

Peyton Manning is gone; his heir apparent Brock Osweiler unexpectedly left, too. But aside from linebacker Danny Trevathan, who went to Chicago, and the replacement of defensive end Malik Jackson with former Texan Jared Crick, the NFL's best team remains functionally intact. All Denver needs is to get decent quarterback play from some combination of Mark Sanchez, Paxton Lynch, and Trevor Siemian and they'll be fine.

• Decent Quarterback Play: I try to avoid the obvious when identifying KPIs, and the Broncos' quarterback travails couldn't be more obvious. But the solution is as non-obvious as it gets: the draft-night triumphalism of team president John Elway moving up to pick Lynch seemed to mark the problem solved, but Lynch is a small-school, gimmick-offense prospect; it's incredibly unlikely that he's ready to pilot a Super Bowl champion back to the mountaintop in year one. Sanchez has been asked to be the caretaker of similarly loaded squads before, and never pulled it off. Siemian is the wild card; ESPN's Adam Schefter might be the latest to say it loudest, but whispers that the Broncos believe in Siemian have been circulating for months. One of these three will have to make a strong case in August if the Broncos are going to beat the Steelers, the Patriots, et al. in January.

• Or at Least Fast Quarterback Play: Manning's incredible field-reading, anticipation, and decision-making has made the offensive line in front of him—a motley crew of late-round picks and low-cost free agents—look good for years. The Manning era is over, and four starters off the Super Bowl squad are now gone. 2015 second-round tackle Ty Sambrailo will probably move inside, per The Denver Post's Troy E. Renck, and will cede his old job to Seattle Seahawks retread Russell Okung. Ex-Chief Donald Stephenson has the inside track on the right-tackle gig. Fifth-round rookie Connor McGovern may start at right guard. Maybe these guys gel in camp and make life easy under center—that or whoever wins the quarterback job will just have no choice but to get rid of the ball as fast as Manning did.

• The Backup 'Backers Starting Strong: Trevathan is a serious loss, and 34-year-old pass-rusher DeMarcus Ware is already past his position's usual expiration date. 2015 first-round pick Shane Ray, who has flashed in very limited action, will have to show he can take over for Ware sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, 24-year-old special-teams demon Todd Davis gets zero ramp-up time; from the first day of camp he'll have to prove he can run-stuff, blitz, and cover nearly as well as Trevathan did.

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