Michigan Has Hype, Jim Harbaugh, and Some Major Question Marks

Every year, there's one team in college football that becomes the darling of the preseason hype machine, a whirring contraption of takes and previews that includes, well, this article. And to be that team, it helps to have some of the following characteristics:

● Be a "sleeping giant," or an otherwise strong program that has been down recently

● Have a good recruiting class coming in—even though it's speculative, the promise of bright future, however abstract, looks good

● Have a new-ish but proven head coach

● Be coming off a season in which the program met expectations but wasn't quite elite

This year, only one team checks all four boxes: Michigan. The Wolverines are coming off an impressive 10-3 season that surprised most observers, even beating the high expectations set by new coach Jim Harbaugh. They were dominant in their wins, too. In one three-week stretch, Michigan outscored opponents BYU, Maryland, and Northwestern 98-0.

Meanwhile, Michigan's losses were forgivable, and merely flukes. One came at Utah in the first game of the season; another, to Michigan State, only happened because of one of the weirdest plays in college football history. The Wolverines were beaten down by a star-studded Ohio State team, but rebounded by trouncing Florida in the Outback Bowl.

Most tellingly, Michigan was statistically elite last year, and probably should have had a better record, as the Wolverines finished eighth nationally in the statistical F/+ ratings.

Heading into the 2016 season, then, Michigan should be primed to take another step forward—all the way into national title contention. Right? That's the feeling among excited Wolverines fans, and also in Las Vegas, where the Wolverines are currently the most popular championship pick.

However, it's important to remember that in sports—as in life—progression isn't always linear. For instance, just because a team returns most of its starters doesn't mean it will end up in a top-tier bowl game. The Wolverines arguably overachieved in 2015: it was Harbaugh's first year with the program; they had gone 5-7 the previous season; they were so thin at quarterback that had to start Jake Rudock, who had lost his starting job at Iowa.

It's quite possible the well-regarded Harbaugh can work some more coaching magic and lead the Wolverines to a better 2016. As my non-Michigan fan roommate said begrudgingly this week, "It's Harbaugh, they're going to be good." However, that isn't guaranteed. Even if the Wolverines' returning starters improve, the team still has some major question marks.

The biggest unknown is at quarterback. Losing Rudock isn't a big deal, talent-wise, but it's somewhat disconcerting that he managed to win last year's starting job over two players competing for that same job today, Wilton Speight and Shane Morris. The other entrant in Michigan's quarterback derby, John O'Korn, is a transfer from Houston who had a good freshman season before averaging a measly 5.5 yards per attempt as a sophomore and transferring.

Maybe O'Korn will end up being great. Maybe Speight will make the progress fans were hoping to see from last year. But those are two big "maybes" at the most important position on the field.

On defense, there's more bad news: Michigan returns just five defensive starters, and only two of them play on the school's front seven. The common response to that question is more roommate logic. It's Harbaugh, he'll figure something out. Besides, he has brought in a lot of young talent. This is true. Harbaugh is recruiting well. On the other hand, he has only signed two recruiting classes, the oldest of which are sophomores. Expecting Alabama-quality depth is unrealistic.

Moreover, Michigan's schedule will severely test the Wolverines' relatively inexperienced defensive front. Michigan plays both Iowa and Wisconsin—the Big Ten West's two most power-run-heavy teams—and must visit Ohio State and Michigan State. That's a hell of a gauntlet, and the Wolverines likely will have to escape it with no more than one loss to be in the College Football Playoff picture.

Look, Michigan will be very good in 2016; nobody thinks otherwise. But the leap from very good to truly great is often the hardest one to successfully stick. The Wolverines have Harbaugh and hype on their side; it's up to their unproven players to live up to both.

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