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Oklahoma-Villanova Will Be a Final Four Shootout

Oklahoma and Villanova both like to shoot from beyond the arc, and the winner of their NCAA tournament semifinal game figures to be the squad that does it better.
Marco Garcia-USA TODAY Sports

This feature is part of VICE Sports' March Madness coverage.

How do you beat Oklahoma when All-American shooting guard Buddy Hield goes off for 37 points and eight made three-pointers, like he did in an 80-68 Elite Eight win over Oregon? The answer is, you don't.

On the flip side, how do you beat Villanova when the Wildcats are scoring better than 1.5 points per possession? There's no chance.

That's what makes the upcoming Final Four matchup between Oklahoma and Villanova so exciting. Both teams can go into God mode. Both have turned on that mode at some point in the NCAA tournament. Which one will turn it on in the national semifinals? That will depend on how they shoot from beyond the arc.

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Both Oklahoma and Villanova love the three-point shot. Threes account for 43 percent of Villanova's shots—good for No. 28 nationally —and 41 percent of Oklahoma's. The Sooners get a whopping 33 percent of all their points off threes.

While both the Sooners and the Wildcats have very good numbers in the paint—Villanova is actually better there, relatively speaking, than from beyond the arc—they make the jump from good to great when they're relying on threes.

Hield is the clear star of the bunch, and while Oklahoma has more accurate three-point shooters than Villanova, both squads have so many volume shooters that anyone can get hot in any game, or even at any time within a game. Take a look:

Consider how both teams performed in the Sweet Sixteen. Against Texas A&M, Hield struggled from beyond the arc, making just two of seven three-point attempts. Jordan Woodard picked up the slack, going 5-for-6. In Villanova's stunning 1.56 points per possession romp over Miami, Ryan Arcidiacono and Kris Jenkins combined to go 9-for-13 from deep, while only two other Wildcats even got three-point attempts off.

This is not to say that Oklahoma and Villanova live and die by the three. What makes this game so exciting is that both teams can be effective without jacking up the first three-point opportunity they see.

Villanova ranks third in the country in two-point percentage, in part because opponents are so wary of their three-point marksmanship that they play up on shooters and allow for backdoor cuts and easy drives to the rim. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has a versatile frontcourt in Khadeem Lattin and Ryan Spangler, who allow the Sooners to play a lot like the Golden State Warriors, creating frontcourt mismatches.

Buddy Hield, doing Buddy Hield things. Photo by Marco Garcia-USA TODAY Sports

The two-point shots will be there for both of these offenses—in a sport that can often feature some brutal shooting, this contest will look more like an NBA game—but ultimately the winner will be decided by which team gets its three-point shots to fall, too. That was the story last December, when Oklahoma crushed Villanova in Hawaii, 78-55. The Wildcats shot an uncharacteristically awful 4-for-32 from beyond the arc, while the Sooners connected on 14-of-26 threes.

If one team is as cold as Villanova was—which seems highly unlikely—expect another rout. But if both teams are hitting from deep, God mode-style? This could be the most entertaining Final Four contest we've seen in a long time.