The Economist Intelligence Unit's Global Forecasting Service said that there was only a "moderate probability" of a Trump win, but a potential "high impact."
The Economist Intelligence Unit's Global Forecasting Service—a branch of the company that publishes the Economist—has named Donald Trump's potential victory in the upcoming US presidential election one of the top ten risks facing the world today.
The forecast specified that there was a "moderate probability" of a Trump win and a potential "high impact." It went on to note that Trump's "hostile attitude to free trade and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war," and that "his militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East (and ban on all Muslim travel to the US) would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups, increasing their threat both within the region and beyond."
Trump earned the same score, a 12, as the "rising threat of jihadi terrorism," and ranked as a higher threat than the UK deciding to leave the European Union. The top threat facing the world, the report said, was the economic collapse of China, which scored a 20.
"Although we do not expect Mr. Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton," the report concluded, "there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn."