Which Mid-Major Bubble Teams Have The Best Chance Of Making The NCAA Tournament?

College basketball is in conference tournament season, which means it's time for smaller-conference teams that have been dominant in their leagues all year to essentially play Russian Roulette with their NCAA Tournament hopes.

Conference tournaments are a bad way to determine NCAA Tournament berths in one-bid leagues, because they devalue the regular season and leave worthy schools on the outside of March Madness, looking in from the NIT. But in amateur athletics, where television money drives all the decision-making, said tournaments are here to stay.

This year's conference tournaments have already cost North Florida and Bucknell, among others, some well-deserved spots in the NCAA Tournament. However, a handful of solid squads who have gone down in their conference tournaments are still on the bubble: Wichita State, St. Mary's, Monmouth and Valparaiso.

Will all four be celebrating on Selection Sunday? Probably not. But it's likely that at least two will. Here's a closer look at their resumes, and a ranking of how likely they are to make the NCAA Tournament:

Record: 27-5

RPI: 36

Good wins: At Gonzaga, Gonzaga

Bad losses: At Pepperdine, Pepperdine

I'm not sold on Saint Mary's, and what's holding them back is their non-conference schedule, which was much easier than Wichita State's. The Gaels played two major conference teams, and split the games, beating Stanford and losing to Cal.

However, everything else is looking up for Saint Mary's. The school's win total is strong, and the committee will take the sheer volume of wins into consideration. Moreover, the Gaels have a solid RPI. St. Mary's also beat Gonzaga—an NCAA Tournament team—twice. The lack of truly solid wins outside of the West Coast Conference should concern Gaels fans, but the decent RPI and record should be enough.

Probability of making the NCAA Tournament: 65 percent

Record: 24-8

RPI: 48

Good wins: Utah

Bad losses: At Illinois State

In a perfect world, Wichita State would be in the NCAA Tournament. The Shockers dealt with injuries early in the season, and they suffered a couple of losses to power non-conference teams as a result. Yet ever since the Missouri Valley Conference season started, they've been dominant—winning games by such a wide margin that they're No. 11 in the influential KenPom.com ratings.

Problem is, the committee uses the RPI rating system, which doesn't take into account margin of victory. So in the eyes of the committee, Wichita State didn't have a great season. On a pure resume basis, the Shockers have a lot to be concerned about, as they only have one good win.

Probability of making the NCAA Tournament: 50 percent

Record: 27-7

RPI: 55

Good wins: USC, Notre Dame

Bad losses: At Canisius, at Army, at Manhattan

Monmouth is everybody's favorite team this season, thanks to its awesome bench celebrations. And the Hawks are a legitimately good team, as they've knocked off some power conference staples.

On the other hand, Monmouth probably doesn't have an NCAA Tournament resume. The Hawks do have two solid wins in USC and Notre Dame, but two of their other wins from the beginning of the season that had everyone so fired up—against UCLA and Georgetown— ended up being less impressive. Moreover, Monmouth had some very troubling losses in the MAC. Losing to Canisius, Army and Manhattan isn't like a Big Ten team losing to, say, Penn State three times. It's far worse. None of those teams are in the top 200 in the RPI.

Probability of making the NCAA Tournament: 25 percent

Record: 26-6

RPI: 53

Good wins: At Oregon State

Bad losses: At Ball State, at Belmont, at Wright State, Wright State

There's a case to be made that Valparaiso is actually better than Monmouth. The Crusaders mostly dominated the Horizon League, and in their two games against power conference opponents, they beat Oregon State and nearly took down Pac-12 regular season champion Oregon. They rank No. 36 in KenPom, while Monmouth ranks No. 67.

But again, those aren't the committee metrics. Valpo has an average RPI, and it has just the one good win against Oregon State. It gets no credit for nearly taking down Oregon in Eugene, because to RPI, a six-point loss is the same as a 20-point loss. The Crusaders' bad losses aren't nearly as bad as Monmouth's, but they do have more of them.

As is the case with Wichita State, if the committee were interested in putting the best teams into the NCAA Tournament, Valparaiso would have a better chance, thanks to its Horizon League dominance and solid showing at Oregon. But by the committee's metrics, that likely won't cut it.

Probability of making the NCAA Tournament: 20 percent