USA Basketball Is Dominant Entering Rio, But the Future Is Looming

For the third straight Olympics, USA Basketball looks poised to turn what's meant to be a competitive tournament into the hardwood version of a hippopotamus and a bumblebee sitting on opposite ends of a see-saw. Forget about losing a game—Team USA isn't expected to lose a quarter. Any victory by a margin below double digits will be viewed as a disappointment, because of the simple fact that, if every basketball player from every country on Earth were thrown into the same draft pool, the first 15 picks would be from the same country.

In the run-up to the opening ceremony, the US defeated China (twice), Argentina, and Venezuela by a total score of 402-233. That's a lot to a little, especially considering that LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis, and James Harden are not on the roster. How rich is the American program if it can leave the greatest shooter who ever lived, the best player alive (and reigning Finals MVP), the Defensive Player of the Year, and five other megastars at home and still waltz toward a gold medal? It's a depressing thought for every other country that hopes to play David to USA's Goliath at any point in the near future. It also raises the possibility of the one thing that could conceivably trip up this team: How is anyone supposed to stay motivated when they're such a prohibitive favorite?

"I think for ourselves, we're playing against each other," Paul George told VICE Sports after crushing China in an exhibition game at Staples Center. "For me, I want to go down as, or this group to be the best defensive team that Coach K has coached. When I'm on that floor, it's giving that effort to make sure we're going to be one of the best defensive teams. That's going to carry us through things."

In other words, apart from the obvious incentive that is the glory that comes with winning a gold medal, George has already come up with a way to keep things from getting stale. Without a rival that can measure up vertically, Team USA has to measure itself horizontally. Which, perhaps, points back to why all those aforementioned stars aren't in Rio. It's only human nature for the best of the best (and most accomplished) to look at a situation that offers far more risk than reward and say no thanks. For those who already own a gold medal, what's the motivation to forego rest and relaxation to travel across the world and play on a team with sky-high expectations? Lose and you're a failure. Win and, well, congratulations on doing what you were supposed to do.

"I'm not surprised," Carmelo Anthony said when asked about his fellow superstars taking a pass at the opportunity to win gold. "Everybody has their own reasons why. You know, the guys that are on this team now are committed. You can tell they're committed."

The last time Team USA didn't win gold was 2004; having won three straight gold medals in 1992, 1996, and 2000, they settled for third place at Athens. Not only did that roster fail to reflect the country's best basketball talent—the only first-team All-NBA player to suit up in 2004 was Tim Duncan—their stagnant performance was a byproduct of boredom as much as anything else. The result wound up proving that even Team USA is vulnerable when their second-tier stars play in third gear.

What happens if Kevin Durant, George, Kyrie Irving, DeMarcus Cousins, and every other young star on this summer's team decide to sit out 2020? There are some reasons for concern over the number of stars who opted out of Rio this year, and the likelihood that, someday in the relatively near future, the world's best player will be suiting up for a different national team.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are widely regarded as the future of the NBA, and the two reasons why are Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. Neither will ever play for USA Basketball: Towns has ties with the Dominican Republic, and Wiggins was born in Toronto. That very same goes for the Philadelphia 76ers, a franchise that's built to own the future thanks to a core of Ben Simmons (Australia), Dario Saric (Croatia), and Joel Embiid (Cameroon).

The Milwaukee Bucks have Jabari Parker and Khris Middleton, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is the real prize and Thon Maker may be right behind him; neither is in the Team USA pool. New York Knicks phenom Kristaps Porzingis and Denver Nuggets cornerstone Nikola Jokic? Same. Including Simmons, of the first 16 players selected in June's draft, nine were born outside the United States of America.

More talent is scattered throughout the world today than ever before, and even though the United States still has the greatest concentration of it, sometimes individual greatness surrounded by competence can be enough to defeat an ace collective effort. Basketball is a funny game like that.

At the U17 Gold Medal game on July 3rd, USA eviscerated Turkey by 40 points—the largest margin of victory in any U17 championship game in history. That squad is 45-0 since 2009. Their U18 team followed that up by "only" beating Canada by 15 points in their (fourth straight) gold-medal win on July 23rd. These two games are proof that the USA Basketball system works, but even the most optimistic interpretation of USA Basketball's pipeline doesn't suggest the team can simply pencil in a gold medal in 2020 or 2024.

Looking at this year's select team—the roster of young players who practice against Team USA—how many are a lock to play in the 2020 All-Star Game? Realistically, of the 25 players on the team, maybe five will ever make it that far. It's possible, if unlikely, that none ever crack the top ten. Gary Harris, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Cody Zeller are fine players, but they aren't leading any version of Team USA to the promised land.

George was complimentary of Los Angeles' "two young bucks," D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle, along with Phoenix Suns second-year combo guard Devin Booker. Anthony didn't want to single out any players on the select team for praise, but did refer to them as "the future of the league." In the most basic sense, he's probably right.

But those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it, and complacency is still the only thing that's ever tripped up Team USA in the NBA era. Even though they've sustained surreal dominance over the rest of the world basically since the sport was invented, the US needs to remember the lessons of 2004 as they work on building another juggernaut, this time under Gregg Popovich, with their sights set on Tokyo and beyond.

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