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Kawhi Leonard Is the Playoffs MVP, and That’s a Problem for San Antonio

The Spurs have never really leaned on any one player as much as they are on the 25-year-old Leonard. It's a departure from Gregg Popovich's unselfish system, but will it be the team's downfall?
Photo by Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

After an unquenchable debate over which All-NBA megastar was most deserving of the 2016-17 MVP award occupied basketball fans the past few months, Kawhi Leonard's postseason magic show has put him head and shoulders above the rest of the field.

He ranks first in PER, True Shooting percentage, Value Over Replacement Player (VORP), and Win Shares, while averaging 31 points, six rebounds, four assists, and two steals per game. He singlehandedly degraded the Memphis Grizzlies over the six games of their first-round series, an incredible performance that reached its climax in Game 4 with a monumental takeover on both sides of the ball rarely seen in any basketball setting, let alone a critical NBA playoff game.

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Seeing the Spurs make a postseason run is nothing new, but that Game 4, and the entire first-round series, was highly unusual for San Antonio. The Spurs have never really leaned on any one player as much as they are leaning on the 25-year-old Leonard. It's not in their nature, or coach Gregg Popovich's system. The question, heading into the next round of the playoffs, is whether it's going to be a major problem.

Read More: The Washington Wizards' Bench Is Bringing Them Down

To be clear, it's hard to blame the Spurs for leaning on Leonard. Second to LeBron James, he's the best all-around player in the world, and it's not like Popovich has any other obvious alternatives. When Leonard is on the floor, San Antonio scores 122.6 points per 100 possessions. When he sits, their offensive rating plunges to 97.9. His 3.8 assists per game led the whole group, and he makes the offense sing no matter who else is on the court.

Lately, however, it's almost as if no one else is on the court. Since 2015, the percentage of Leonard's baskets that are unassisted has been steadily climbing; it was 46.2 percent that year in a seven-game series against the Los Angeles Clippers, then 56.6 percent during last year's playoffs. Right now, 66.7 percent (!) of Leonard's baskets are unassisted, meaning two out of every three shots were the result of his own aggression instead of San Antonio's traditionally self-sacrificing system.

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Just two years ago, 43.9 percent of Leonard's two-point shots were directly off a teammate's pass. That number dropped to a respectable 30.3 percent last season, when the Spurs' season crashed into Oklahoma City. Now it's 16.3 percent! That's the lowest among all forwards in the entire playoffs. LeBron James is over twice as high, as was Leonard himself during the regular season.

Leonard is making a lot of his own shots. Photo by Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

The last time San Antonio assisted fewer than half their made baskets was 2009, when they were eliminated after a zippy five-game series against the Dallas Mavericks. Manu Ginobili didn't play and Michael Finley was their third-leading scorer. (They haven't sunk below 56 percent in the regular season since 2001, either.)

Today, only 43.9 percent of their baskets are thanks to an assist, down a whopping 11.1 percent from last year. They currently rank 15th out of 16 playoff teams.

Is the rest of San Antonio's roster coming up short, or can they muster some more support in Round 2? It's not the most promising question if you're a Spurs fan. In terms of the load on his shoulders, Leonard isn't quite Russell Westbrook or James Harden, but it's closer than you think.

LaMarcus Aldridge's PER was 25 during last year's playoff run. Right now it's below league average. Despite serving as one of the more dominant post players in this entire postseason, Aldridge is still averaging only 14.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per 36 minutes. He isn't efficient, and the Grizzlies rarely, if ever, sent a double team his way to force a pass.

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There's always the chance he has more success against the Houston Rockets, but Ryan Anderson is a physically and mentally taxing matchup on the defensive end; Nene is a slab of cement down low. The Rockets will be small for a majority of the series. They'll spread the floor and, in all likelihood, dictate the terms. That's bad news for Aldridge.

This was an unusual series for the Spurs. Photo by Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Tony Parker shined unexpectedly in Round 1, averaging a highly efficient 16.3 points, but he's also 34 years old. The Grizzlies encouraged his attack—ducking under screens, forcing a whole bunch of pull-up long twos, deserting him in the corners—and he punished them for it. Doing the same thing against Patrick Beverley is a different question.

Parker deserves some credit, though. He created more for himself than even Leonard, and put Memphis' plodding big men, most notably Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, in uncomfortable spots heading downhill off a high screen. Parker isn't as nimble as he used to be, but he still did a tremendous job navigating the paint, flipping a few impossible floaters softly off the glass when it appeared they had no chance to go in.

After he went scoreless in an 18-minute dud in Game 3, Parker responded with 22 points, five assists, and four rebounds in Game 4, 16 points and six assists in Game 5, and, in by far his most impressive performance all year long, a 27-point gem to close things out on the road in Game 6.

That's all wonderful for Parker, but the Spurs should be worried that they needed him to go 11-for-14 in a closeout game against the depleted Grizzlies. Is anybody else ready to consistently provide some offensive production? Patty Mills has been a fireball, but can't create his own shot. Pau Gasol is a defensive liability and Danny Green has lost a step.

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Leonard's usage percentage hasn't increased from the regular season, but how he's attacking now is so much different than before. When the game is on the line, the ball doesn't leave his hands unless it's a shot, turnover, or pass that sets up an immediate scoring opportunity.

Parker will run pick-and-rolls. Aldridge will get post touches and jack up contested long twos. Gasol can knock down spot-up threes and make solid plays rolling to the basket. Mills and Green exist as an occasional spark from deep.

But Leonard is the only player on this roster who can create good shots for himself and better shots for teammates. He can be truly unstoppable for whole quarters at a time, and has finally learned that in order for San Antonio to win they need the ball in his humongous paws as often as possible.

It's a departure from how Popovich's teams have found success in the recent past, and that is intriguing, if not worrisome. The Spurs need Leonard to be unreasonably efficient at a high volume for three more rounds or they'll lose. It's not impossible, but it's also not the unselfish of play we typically associate with this team.

There's no "right" way to play, and it's OK for Popovich to lean on Leonard as much as he has. This is a balancing act. But predictability isn't what the Spurs do, and this shift—as necessary as it might be—could lead to their downfall.

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