The IOC Shouldn't Ask Los Angeles to Host The Games in 2028

Reports continue to trickle in that sure makes it sound like the IOC is leaning towards awarding the 2024 Summer Olympics to Paris and the 2028 Olympics to Los Angeles. For the first time, LA mayor Eric Garcetti sounded open to the idea, during a press conference today, as reported by Inside The Games: "As we've talked to the Olympics they've asked us to think about—both Paris and us—what would it take for us to consider one of us going first and the other going second." Garcetti added that he would be open to considering 2028—by which time Garcetti could not be mayor due to term limits—in exchange for youth sports funding from the IOC.

While this may seem like a good idea—lock down two "safe" hosts in major cities for future Games—if the IOC does in fact go through with this, it will be a prime example of them missing key lessons from the past few Olympic debacles, especially from Rio 2016. A lot can happen from the time a city wins a bid to the time the Games are held. The IOC should be taking advantage of Olympic-ready cities by shortening that time horizon. Instead, they're going in the opposite direction and lengthening it.

Let's look back at Rio for a second. In December, I wrote that the biggest lesson from Rio applied to all future host cities:

Rio is obviously an extreme example, but the point remains relevant for everywhere. It's hard enough to predict what America will look like in seven years, never mind 11. Who here is ready to place a multi-billion dollar bet that the United States will be in a position to welcome the world for a premier sporting event in 11 years? That our political landscape will be stable? That our economic prospects will be healthy?

The main issue here is the cost-benefit analysis is so out of whack. Because so much time will pass between now and the actual Games, there are many potential costs but very little upside; we get to host a three-week party and the IOC might fund some athletics fields and maybe LA won't be any worse off?

LA and Paris's bids largely utilize existing facilities, which is a great development and a huge change from previous Olympics. One benefit of this approach that hasn't yet been explored is cities don't need nearly as much lead time to plan and construct. The IOC could take advantage of this and start awarding Olympics on shorter time horizons, not longer ones. This benefits everyone: the city, the IOC, the fans, and the politicians. Everyone will be making more informed decisions, which will lead to better Olympics. Who doesn't want that?