Jorge Masvidal Is Favored to Defeat Demian Maia and Deprive Him of His Title Shot

When it was first announced that Demian Maia and Jorge Masvidal would be fighting on the main card of UFC 211, there was widespread excitement—and understandably so. In this fight, we have a collision between two of the best welterweights alive. We have a style-clash between one of the division's very best grapplers, and a boxer with just the kind of defensive wrestling to make things interesting. We have a showdown between two battle-hardened veterans who have fought almost 75 times collectively.

While there was plenty of excitement following the announcement of this key welterweight battle, however, there was not a lot of immediate confidence in Masvidal.

Though Masvidal is considered one of the top contenders in the UFC welterweight division, Maia is considered the number one contender outright. The majority of fans seem to believe that the Brazilian submission specialist has already earned a welterweight title shot, and really, those fans aren't wrong. Were it not for champ Tyron Woodley's November draw with Stephen Thompson—which resulted in a March rematch—Maia probably would have already fought for the title by this point. Yet with Woodley and Thompson's rematch crowding the calendar, he was encouraged to take this fight with Masvidal—a fight that seems to be widely regarded as the final step in his long march to a title shot.

Over the last few weeks, the Maia-Masvidal line has quietly shifted, and now, the unheralded Masvidal is the favorite. At -130, which means a successful $130 bet on him will earn you $100, Masvidal is not a huge favorite, but he's the favorite all the same. Maia, meanwhile, sits at +110, which means a successful bet on him will earn you $110. The implication here is that more money has been bet on Masvidal than on Maia, and therefore, that the MMA community is now leaning towards a Masvidal victory.

It's hard to say why the odds have shifted the way they have. Perhaps this shift can be attributed to the fact that a very vocal Masvidal has been exuding confidence over the last few weeks, while a quiet Maia hasn't generated much in the way of headlines. Perhaps people just re-watched Masvidal's recent destruction of Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and decided that he's capable of doing the same to Maia. It's hard to say.

Masvidal's emergence as the betting favorite obviously doesn't guarantee him a win. Betting favorites lose all the time. But what if the odds prove correct, and Maia's streak comes to an end on the UFC 211 main card? Where does that leave the grappling whiz? Well, the precedent for such an outcome was actually set just weeks ago.

On April 15, on the main card of the UFC's thrilling stop in Kansas City, Missouri, Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza stepped onto the canvas with the widely discounted Robert Whittaker. Like Maia, Jacare was believed to be right on the cusp of a title shot, and could well have earned that shot if he had opted to wait. Instead, however, Jacare chose to take a risk and stay busy, and ultimately paid the price. After a tough first round, he was stopped by Whittaker strikes in the second. With this loss, he tumbled down the middleweight ladder, settling far out of reach of a title shot. Maia runs a very real risk of realizing the same fate against Masvidal.

When you consider Maia's age, the ramifications of a loss to Masvidal look even more severe. At 37, the chances of Jacare regaining enough momentum to earn a title shot before his body starts quitting on him seem rather slim. At 39, Maia's chances of rebounding from a loss to Masvidal look even slimmer.

Demian Maia is risking it all against Jorge Masvidal at UFC 211. And though the MMA community—and the odds-makers—originally seemed to believe his gamble would pay off, this no longer seems to be the case. Confidence in him has slipped, and the odds now suggest he loses to Masvidal, and his long-awaited title shot crumbles as a result.