An Idiot's Guide to the Surprise Election Announcement

There is going to be another election. If you count the upcoming regional elections on the 4th of May and the EU referendum, it will be the fourth time in two years that British voters will have gone to the polls.

In a short statement made at Downing Street, after an hour of speculation that sent political journalists into meltdown, Theresa May told us this morning that there will be an election on the 8th of June.

May had emphatically denied that there would be a General Election before 2020 several times since she assumed the premiership before completely changing her mind. The "political game playing" of the opposition over Brexit has meant she has "only recently and reluctantly" come to the conclusion that a General Election is needed.

So what's going on? Hard to say, really, but below is an attempt to put you in the picture to some extent.

Firstly, the Conservatives seem to have a pretty firm electoral lead over Labour, according to recent polls. A YouGov poll from over the weekend put the Tories at 44 percent to Labour's 23 percent, with 50 percent of the sample choosing Theresa May as the best Prime Minister over Corbyn's 14 percent. She wants to solidify this balance now, before Brexit starts going pear-shaped.

Secondly, she needs a renewed mandate for the government's Brexit strategy. Despite the endless incantations of "Brexit Means Brexit", the past few months of to-and-fro between Brussels and London has shown it's not that simple. Although calling a General Election won't make the uncertainties disappear, it will provide the government with a mandate for whatever form its version of Brexit finally takes. As May said, quite frankly, in her statement, "Every vote for the Conservatives will make me stronger when I negotiate for Britain with the prime ministers, presidents and chancellors of the European Union."

As The Guardian has observed, there's another reason why it would be in the government and Tory party's interest to call a general election now: the Crown Prosecution Service is "due to make a decision quite soon about whether to charge Tories" in relation to alleged electoral fraud in the 2015 General Election. Calling a new election would eliminate the need for politically damaging by-elections. (Although, this would count as "political game playing", which I'm sure the Prime Minister wouldn't engage in herself…)

Although many politicians and journalists have lamented the government's apparent "lack of opposition" these past few months, the Prime Minister cited the incessant chorus of disapproval from the opposition parties as the main reason for calling this election:

A few weeks ago Labour published six conditions that the Brexit deal has to meet – which included delivering a free trade agreement that provides the "exact same benefits" as membership of the single market. It said it would consider voting against the package May returns with from Brussels if any of the conditions weren't met. It was a smart move, but a General Election could take the wind out of Labour's sails. If it delivers a larger majority for the Tories, May will be able to silence further criticism – for a while, at least.

One of the reasons a few commentators thought May was unlikely to call a General Election before 2020 – aside from her repeated, confident assertions that she wouldn't – was because David Cameron's government passed a "Fixed Term Parliament Act" in 2011, meaning a demarcated five-year term for every government. But if government can get more than two-thirds of the Commons to vote for it, it can call a snap election. This would mean 434 of 650 MPs voting for an election. The Tories currently have 330 seats. Today, Labour said it would back an election, so it looks like it's happening.

Idk lol. Does anyone? With UKIP in disarray and its MPs migrating to the Tories – which partly explains the recent surge popularity for May – and being led by the universally distrusted Paul Nuttall, they're unlikely to gain much traction during the next month of campaigning. Of course, that won't stop Nigel Farage getting invited onto every debate panel and newsroom.

As for Labour, it's likely they'll see a sudden surge in recently "passive" members turning up at their next local Labour meeting to start door-stopping and canvassing; with over 500,000 members, they've got a serious reserve army of labour to exploit over the next few weeks. Look forward to a Momentum activist knocking on your door when you're trying to make a pot noodle.

One interesting question, raised by Corbyn's former spokesperson, will be whether May agrees to participate in televised debates. A relatively recent invention (it was first used in the 2010 election), they've proved to be pretty useful in throwing up a dark horse. Remember Cleggmania? Remember how Corbyn took everyone by surprise during Labour leadership debates? Don't rule out the dead-eyed resolve of May coming across quite badly compared to JC getting all indignant about the NHS, grammar schools and so on.

The Prime Minister knows too well that this is likely to pour even more fuel over Labour's fires. Already one right-wing Labour MP who's been a consistent critic of Corbyn, Tom Blenkinsop, has announced he won't be standing for re-election, prompting the Sun to exclaim, "Labour Quitting Already." Another un-named Labour source has said that the "silver lining" of the General Election will be getting "shot of Corbyn earlier". With the election at such short notice, it's unlikely the Parliamentary Labour Party will try to oust their leader again before the 8th of June. However, the long-standing divisions within the Labour Party – between the membership who would probably vote for him again were there another leadership election, the generally sympathetic unions and the hostile PLP – won't be going anywhere soon.

As for the Lib Dems, they'll likely be using this election to mobilise a section of the 48 percent who are still determined to make Brexit go away. Their leader, Tim Farron, has made it clear in a statement that the Lib Dems will be running on a platform of keeping "Britain in the single market".

Many of the problems the European Commission has had so far with Britain's delusional posturing won't be assuaged by having a General Election. In fact, the internal divisions between the Tory Party over what Brexit should look like might only be intensified if they return on the 9th of June with a larger majority. The General Election will also mean there'll be less time to engage in the actual Brexit negotiations; the two-year countdown began last month when Article 50 was triggered.

The Prime Minister is hoping to return a Tory supermajority – and we know how much Scotland loves the Tories.

If May is successful, it'll basically mean giving a green light to the SNP to get on with a new independence referendum. They'll be able to point to a Tory-riddled England committed to a Hard Brexit and contrast it with a Scotland that wants to hold onto the EU, at most, or single market membership, at the least. The divisions between Holyrood and Westminster will have never been clearer.

Will this be the final General Election covering the United Kingdom as we know it?

@Yohannk