Can the Raptors Take the Next Step with Dwane Casey as Coach?

This article is part of VICE Sports' 2016 NBA Playoffs coverage.

Here are some facts: Dwane Casey is the winningest head coach in Toronto Raptors history; only Gregg Popovich, Erik Spoelstra, and Rick Carlisle have served longer in their current gigs than Casey has in his; Toronto has increased its win total in every season since Casey came aboard, in 2011; despite having a roster that's built more for wearing down teams during the regular season than for rising to a different level in the playoffs, the Raptors somehow have pushed the Cleveland Cavaliers to a sixth game in the Eastern Conference Finals; technically, they're six victories away from winning a title. None of this is up for debate. The question, where Casey is concerned, is what it's worth.

Casey's admirers can argue that he's the most underappreciated coach in the NBA, and they would have a compelling case. The Raptors had the very worst defense in the league the year before he was hired. After one season, they jumped all the way to No. 12. The offense has been a top-five outfit for two straight seasons. Casey has overseen growth from Toronto's core and he's partly responsible for the organization's proliferating popularity, both in the Great White North and among free agents who want a shot at contributing to a winning team. The Raptors had long been a half-purgatorial last resort, but they're now a legitimate destination. That doesn't happen without a steady hand on the sideline.

But: the Raptors had won precisely zero playoff series under Casey before they barely scraped by the Indiana Pacers a month ago, and more recently won their rock fight against the Miami Heat. While it's fair to blame nerves on their inconsistent play on both ends, it's also a convenient excuse.

Yes, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and DeMarre Carroll are all shooting below 40 percent right now, but Casey is not without fault for concocting a game plan that, had this been the regular season, would have been less efficient than every team except the Los Angeles Lakers and the Philadelphia 76ers. The Raptors have won ugly, and that will likely keep Casey in his job for another year, but the "ugly" part is what it is.

Had the Raptors lost in the first or second round, it's somewhere between probable and certain that Casey wouldn't be back next season. From keeping Luis Scola in the rotation a beat too long to pouring jars of molasses on top of an offense that was the league's fifth fastest and ninth most efficient in crunch time this season, Casey has given his skeptics enough evidence to support shuffling the deck, or at least seeing whether some other coach could get more from this talent.

That's a bigger gamble than it seems, though. Casey represents stability and epitomizes culture, which are two essential but tough-to-quantify traits shared by the NBA's most successful organizations. Had Toronto gone 3-4 in the postseason instead of 10-10 (which is what they would be with a season-ending loss on Friday night), Casey would likely be gone. Now there's a decent chance he stays. Besides two unconvincing series wins, what has he done to prove he's worth keeping around? It's not just a rhetorical question. These things are difficult to judge.

As a collective unit, the Raptors underachieved horribly in Round 1 and didn't find their footing offensively until the NBA's best shot blocker injured his knee in Round 2. In the conference finals, the first series where they have no pressure or expectations, Toronto has finally looked, in stretches, like the scrappy 56-win team they were all year.

There are so many different variables outside a head coach's control, but Casey minimizes them as much as possible in large part by bonding so closely to his team. This is the thing that is, perhaps, hardest to quantify among all the questions of what a coach actually does. However he does it, Casey's players play hard for him and execute his instructions, which is more than half the battle, arguably even ahead of strategic tweaks and lineup adjustments. The technical stuff is the technical stuff, but the ability to motivate and get players to buy in is elemental. For whatever else he lacks, Casey has that.

Casey is also comically demonstrative, almost to a fault, stomping and clapping in the direction of opposing players. He implores his team to stay in a proper defensive stance by literally miming the right position, with his arms wide and knees bent just a few feet away; anyone who has ever played youth basketball will have flashbacks from watching it. Casey screams nonstop while sliding up and down the sideline, his open jacket and tie wave back and forth like they're washing a car. His voice, in postgame press conferences, is that of a man who has endured severe throat trauma. There's an obvious explanation for that: he's inflicted it on himself.

It's silly, it's overstated, but it works. The competitive desire that turns a 59-year-old professional into a lunatic seems to inspire his players to reach down for that extra two percent. In the grand scheme, that might be trivial, and it's definitely hard to quantify, but buoyancy is infectious. Casey may not be ranked among the very best coaches in the NBA, but that's more than enough to win a championship in a league where top-ten talent + casual luck = everything.

A few months before the playoffs started, Lowry appeared on the Lowe Post Podcast and offered support for his oft-criticized head coach:

"He's done a good job, man. They always say the grass ain't always greener on the other side. So, for a guy who's got me into a situation where I've gotten paid, I'm an All-Star, I'm going to go and say, 'Listen, if he's back, he's back. I want him back.' That's one of those things where you've known a guy so long, but that's not my decision…. Casey's an unbelievable person and the nicest guy in the world. On the floor, he's that old-school, Southern, hard-nosed type of coach. I think me and him, our relationship has really grown throughout the years and he's learned to trust me, and I think I've learned to trust him, and I think that's why we have a better relationship."

There's a real connection between this team's best player and its head coach. That's crucial for long-term success, and it should force the Raptors front office to hesitate before making any rash decisions.

Let's draw a quick parallel between Toronto and Oklahoma City. The Raptors have a lower ceiling than the Thunder, but both teams ultimately depend on an All-Star point guard and a scoring wing who's capable of shouldering the heavy lifting. Toronto benefits from playing in a weaker conference, and neither of its centerpiece stars are as good as Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant, but the comparison fits, broadly, and carries a question along with it: What if Casey is the Raptors' Scott Brooks?

That is, is Casey good enough to motivate his players but not strategically deft enough to use them to their best advantage? Another question follows: If he is, would a new voice—a Billy Donovan, if you will—help push the Raptors to a higher level by implementing a more flexible, responsive strategy? It's a question that needs asking, although given Lowry's age (he's 30), DeRozan's looming max contract, and the team's anxiety-inducing reliance on Jonas Valanciunas's development, it might be that their narrow championship window is stuck between LeBron James's prime and sleeping giants like the Boston Celtics.

These answers ultimately depend on personnel decisions, which is why Raptors GM Masai Ujiri is even more synonymous with Toronto's success than Casey. It probably doesn't matter who the coach is if the Raptors don't nail this year's draft or lure another impact player in free agency, and that is Ujiri's job.

But, as Lowry says, the grass isn't always greener on the other side, and the Raptors don't have a Durant and Westbrook. Casey has helped build a winning culture in a place that previously had none; it's hard to look at the past five years and wonder if any other coach could've accomplished much more with the players he had. Casey is an adaptable motivator with decades of experience, and his players trust him. There are plenty of coaches who can diagram a play, but only so many who can pull that last part off.

In a vacuum, there may be superior coaches on the open market, in college or serving as assistants on another team's bench. But even if the Raptors are blown out at home in Game 6, there's a very real risk in moving on from what Casey still provides. In a league where head coaches are regularly tossed aside, change for its own sake isn't always a good thing. Dwane Casey doesn't do everything perfectly, but what he does do, he does well. The challenge for the Raptors, whenever their season ends, is figuring out whether that's enough.