Dennis Schröder's Odd Future and Atlanta's Point Guard Quandary

The Atlanta Hawks knew that Dennis Schröder would be a project when they made him the 17th overall pick in 2013. Less than three years later, he's still more or less a work in progress, albeit one whose timetable is being sped up—not by his play but by his discontent. At this point in his career, Schröder is a decent backup point guard, but in October he told Bild (a German newspaper) that if he doesn't start at the point this season, he'll look for opportunities elsewhere.

If Schröder was currently playing at, or at least close to, All-Star level, forcing head coach Mike Budenholzer to choose between him and 2015 All-Star Jeff Teague, that would be an OK problem to have. Both contracts expire after the 2016-17 season, giving the Hawks some time to think about whether they want to trade one or the other.

Multiple Hawks reporters have told me that Schröder believes his comments were misrepresented, so there may be much ado about nothing. That could also be a bit of panicked backtracking. Either way, Schröder's situation is still an intriguing one.

Hawks Twitter will tell you that Schröder is their point guard of the future, which is tough to refute looking strictly at his tools. Schröder has lightning speed, intimidating length, and a great feel for the point-guard position. The components are all there, but how does he put them to use?

Let's start with his quickness, which is integral to everything he does on offense. More than 57 percent of Schröder's offensive plays end in the pick-and-roll, according to NBA.com play type data. He's adept at delivering on-target pocket passes to his bigs, but scoring himself is an issue. Schröder can blow by defenders who play him too close, but he's a sub-par finisher and at just 172 pounds may always struggle some in this capacity. He shoots 48.9 percent at the rim according to Basketball-Reference, a product of having little strength or creativity in the air. He also tries to avoid contact: Schröder's free-throw rate (free-throw attempts for every field-goal attempt) on drives places him 33rd out of the 39 players who record at least six a game, per NBA.com player tracking data.

That's when Schröder can get that far. He handles the ball fine, but he doesn't have the trickery of a Chris Paul or Isaiah Thomas to get defenders off balance. If the help is in place, Schröder will resort to a poor in-between game. His floater is still a work in progress, and he's shooting 36.4 percent on pull-up jumpers outside of 10 feet. When defenders go under the screen on him, Atlanta's offense stalls.

Schröder has become more patient in choosing when to attack. If he feels the defense covering his big man and the potential drive well, he'll dribble out and reset the offense. Schröder is forcing less, turning the ball over fewer times, and looking more like a savvy point guard. He can't whip cross-court passes into shooters' chests quite yet and has a difficult time swinging the ball out of a hard double-team, but his court vision and decision-making are impressive for a 22-year-old. He's averaging 7.8 assists per 36 minutes, but passing was never a concern for him coming into the league.

Shooting was, though, and this part of his game remains a big question mark. He's currently shooting 33.1 percent from three-point land after connecting on 35.1 percent last year. Strangely enough, his 40.4 percent clip on catch-and-shoot threes is solid, but is offset by the 23.5 percent he's hitting on pull-up tries. Defenses are ignoring him behind the arc.

Millsap ends up getting blocked on this play.

Offense is only half the game, of course, and Schröder excels on the other side of the ball. The Hawks give up 7.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with Schröder in the game, and lock down opponents in Spurs-like fashion during those stretches. He's not one to completely shut down his opposite number, as Patrick Beverley does, but his fundamentals and understanding of the Hawks system are spot-on. He's simply in the right place most of the time, using his length and lateral quickness to pester ball handlers.

Now this is mostly against bench units, but defensive comprehension translates smoothly, and Schröder is as quick as anybody. In the three games Jeff Teague sat out in mid-November, Schröder started, and the Hawks defended well when he was on the floor. Granted, they were playing the Nets, the Kings, and the Jazz, but Schröder's defense has definitely improved. He's gambled less this season, resulting in fewer mistakes, and he's maneuvering screens much better despite his frame.

This sounds like it should be an open-and-shut case—Schröder seems like a good, young guard that's improving—and it would be, except that he's actually regressed this season.

Schröder made minor improvements in areas where he was already proficient this year, but his field-goal, three-point, and free-throw percentages have all fallen from his sophomore year, in 2014-15. Same for his at-rim field-goal percentage and free-throw rate. Although he's more controlled in the pick-and-roll, we haven't seen any progress in his ability to make plays there, a letdown given his talent. Schröder's height and ball-handling makes it tough to poke the ball away from him, yet you rarely see him circle behind the restricted area looking for cutters and corner shooters as most elite point guards do. His slight stature makes any mid-air contact look like a possible flagrant foul, yet he avoids help defenders leaping toward him. We haven't even touched on his abysmal postseason last year.

So where does this leave the Hawks? Their core of Teague, Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, and Al Horford won't last forever. Korver is already showing signs of slowing down, and Millsap is about to turn 31. If Atlanta doesn't see itself competing with this core beyond 2017, holding onto Schröder for the long haul is the clear choice, but one that comes with complications. First, the Hawks could flip Schröder for a veteran player who might boost their chances of winning now—say, Utah's Alec Burks or Pelicans guard Tyreke Evans.

If Atlanta decides Schröder is their future starter, the team will likely look to trade Teague so it doesn't lose an All-Star for nothing in free agency. Of course, this is all assuming Schröder can develop into a good starter. Teague will only be 29 in 2017, and if Schröder is still just a useful backup then, the Hawks could be inclined to keep things as they are. That is, provided Schröder doesn't make good on what he said in October and look for a starting gig somewhere else.

Luckily, the Hawks have some time to figure this out. It's just another of those tight corners front offices find themselves in every year, even when things are going well. Who knew scoring on a mid-first round pick could cause so much trouble.