Let It Fly: How to Beat Alabama in the College Football Playoff

Heading into last year's College Football Playoff, Alabama looked unbeatable. The Crimson Tide lost to an upstart Ole Miss squad in September, but after that they dominated every school in their path.

Heading into this year's Playoff semifinal against Michigan State, Alabama looks almost exactly the same. The Tide lost to Ole Miss in September, and then they went on a tear through the rest of the SEC, beating LSU, Georgia, Florida, and others en route to their second straight SEC title.

As we learned last year, however, Alabama is beatable, even when their opponent has shown some flaws. The Crimson Tide got rocked by Ohio State, 42-35, in last year's Playoff semifinal, and now they face another rising Big Ten team that's playing its best football in November and December.

That said, Alabama is a 10-point favorite for a reason: the Crimson Tide have the deepest, most talented roster in America. Still, they aren't invincible. Here's how to beat them.

Ole Miss beat Alabama in part because they played early in the season, when the Crimson Tide secondary was struggling. They got worked by Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly, who went 18-for-33 for 341 yards and three touchdowns. He was most effective in hurting the Tide deep, with completions of 73 and 66 yards, and an average of 10.3 yards per attempt.

Since then, the Alabama secondary has solidified, and they are elite in just about every defensive category: No. 1 in opposing yards per carry (2.38) and No. 13 in opposing yards per passing attempt (5.9).

If Alabama's defense has a weakness, it's yielding the big play, as Kelly and Ole Miss learned. That's proved by both the per-play metrics and stats guru Bill Connelly's S&P+ ratings. Just compare the Tide's defensive efficiency to its explosiveness rankings:

Translation? It's almost impossible to beat Alabama by nickel-and-diming your way down the field. The Crimson Tide have got the best recruiting class in the country in each of the past five years, and it shows most in their defense, which is full of athletes who are straight-up better than their opposing counterparts. The more plays it takes for you to score, the more that talent advantage matters.

However, Alabama hasn't been great at stopping opponents from throwing it deep. Testing the Tide's corners on short routes won't work, but testing them deep might, and that can stretch out the field even more. Just ask Ohio State quarterback Cardale Jones and running back Ezekiel Elliott: the Buckeyes' two offensive scoring plays against the Tide in the second half of last year's Playoff shocker were a 47-yard pass and an 85-yard run.

Alabama has a Heisman-winning running back in Derrick Henry, but stopping Henry isn't the key to beating the Crimson Tide. Henry is going to get his yards no matter what, and that's largely because he gets the ball so many times—in the final two games of the season, for example, he had a whopping 90 combined carries.

Henry is a great running back, to be sure, but he's not as much of a home run threat as some of his peers. His rushing average (5.86 yards per carry) isn't as good as LSU's Leonard Fournette (6.42) or Florida State's Dalvin Cook (7.86). He won't singlehandedly beat Alabama's opponents, even if the Tide's defense is playing well. He needs some help.

In the last two months of the season, Henry got that support from quarterback Jake Coker. Coker transferred from Florida State and didn't even fully win the starting job at the beginning of the season—he was replaced by Cooper Bateman for the Ole Miss game, and then won his job back. Coker isn't dominant, but Alabama doesn't need him to be. The Tide's season-ending wins against Auburn and Florida define his game-manager role perfectly: nickel-and-dime down the field, with the occasional deep shot to star receiver Calvin Ridley if he's wide open; otherwise, don't try to do more than you're absolutely certain you can do.

Check out Coker's numbers:

That's about as boring a stat line as they come. And that's how Alabama coach Nick Saban wants it. Behind a star-studded offensive line, the Crimson Tide just wear down opponents with their running game. They only need a quarterback who can sit in the pocket and pick apart opposing defenses with easy throws. Coker fits the bill.

In his past few games, Coker has shown an ability to throw outside the pocket when needed, which potentially gives Alabama another dimension. Thing is, that isn't Coker's forte, and scrambling around leads to situations where he might mess up. The key to beating Alabama's offense is disruption. Don't let them get into that comfort zone where they can march down the field on high-percentage plays, sucking in defenses for the occasional deep shot.

If you don't allow Alabama to be Alabama, then you have a chance to beat the Crimson Tide. Of course, that's much easier written than done.