The Leafs Are Overachievers

Is Reimer gonna get boned in Boston? via.

Nearly two weeks ago, in this column, I wrote that the Bruins would win their first round series against the Maple Leafs because they’re better. They are better, and will probably still win the series, though that’s very much in doubt with game seven scheduled for Monday evening.

But credit where it’s due, the Toronto Maple Leafs have managed to carry their over-achieving ways into the postseason. I’m shocked, obviously, but realistically the Leafs are outperforming expectations in the postseason for reasons that have little relationship with what allowed them to make the playoffs in the first place.

This bizarro Leafs team only ever made the postseason in the first place because they leaned heavily on James Reimer and he delivered, and their penalty-killing was dominant even though they were routinely crushed and lucky as fuck at even-strength. Against the Bruins in their first round series, Reimer has been brilliant again, but everything else we thought we knew about the Leafs hasn’t really shown up. Their penalty killing has fallen apart, but the Leafs have gobsmackingly and inexplicably held their own, at even-strength, against the Bruins.

So yeah, that’s made for a fascinating series, especially because things began precisely the way we expected. Toronto’s club was handled completely in the first game in Boston; they were out-shot two to one and bloodied by a 4-1 loss to open the series.

But since then, the games have been excruciatingly close and incredibly compelling. Even Boston’s 5-2 victory in game three was a lot more competitive than it appeared on the scoreboard.

It has turned into a fun chess match between the two head coaches too. In game two, Toronto’s head-coach Randy Carlyle went to great lengths to disguise his lines and free up Phil Kessel from matching up against Zdeno Chara in game two. The Leafs managed four goals.

In game three, Bruins coach Claude Julien responded by rigorously zone-matching Patrice Bergeron in the defensive end of the ice, and the David Krejci line in the offensive end. The Krejci line exploded in Toronto in games three and four, as the Bruins built a three-to-one lead in the series.

But even as the Bruins put the Leafs in what appeared, at the time, to be a stranglehold in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinal, the Leafs surpassed expectations at five-on-five. Their complete inability to hang with teams at even-strength is why I figured they were going to totally fucking blow it, but Toronto’s club has found an extra gear as this series has gone along. Why? Well it’s probably because Randy Carlyle stopped aiming a gun directly at his foot and repeatedly pulling the trigger.

Injuries forced puck-moving dynamo Jake Gardiner into the top-four, Mikhail Grabovski finally began to play major minutes again, and Matt Frattin and Clarke MacArthur became regulars in Toronto’s lineup, finally beating out several AHL quality skaters and useless face-punchers on the depth chart.

In fact, the Bruins stole the fourth game in Toronto, even though the Leafs were the better club. Meanwhile the Leafs and James Reimer returned the favour in Boston in game five.

Sunday night’s game six was, uncharacteristically for this series, a cagey low-event defensive affair. It was like some fucker sucked the free-flowing, defence-optional hockey typical of the Eastern Conference right out of the building, and biochemically inserted some of the DNA from the grinding, royal rumble type series between the Los Angeles Kings and the St. Louis Blues in the first round out west.

With Maple Leafs centre Tyler Bozak out of the lineup with some kind of injury to his right arm, the Leafs promoted Nazem Kadri to their top-line to skate alongside Phil Kessel and James Van Riemsdyk. Through forty minutes that line had their lunch money handed, matched up primarily against Boston’s third line.

But Toronto’s young, offensively gifted players answered the bell in the third and produced a pair of goals—a Dion Phaneuf tip of a Nazem Kadri shot early in the third period, and a Phil Kessel goal off of a rebound to seal the game a few minutes later—while outshooting the Bruins handily in the first ten minutes of that critical frame. The Leafs won and survived to play another day, and with one more win on Monday night can complete one hell of an upset over the Bruins, and write another chapter in their Cinderella 2013 season.

Of course, this carriage could still (and probably will) turn into a motherfucking pumpkin. The Bruins have out-shot and out-chanced the Maple Leafs all series long at even-strength. They’ve dominated the special teams battle too. So just like I said before, they’re the better team.

But the Maple Leafs are playing and talking like they know they can win this thing. And maybe they can. James Reimer has stepped up in a big way (though, so has his counterpart Tuuka Rask), Phil Kessel is out-scoring the hot-shot young player he was originally traded for, and Mikhail Grabovski is cementing his reputation as one of the league’s most daring, exciting, bat-shit fucking insane players.

If Toronto’s season ends tonight, the club has made a lasting impression in the postseason. That impression is of a team that doesn’t utilize their assets bafflingly (as they did throughout the regular season), and that can hang with the league’s best at five a side (which they simply fucking couldn’t in the regular season, and don’t give me any bull-shit shot quality arguments).

And if Toronto’s season doesn’t end tonight? Well then Toronto based hockey fans are going to be completely insufferable from roughly 10PM Eastern Time tonight right up until the team misses the postseason next Spring. I’d describe that as a worst case scenario, but honestly, after watching Leafs fans struggle through the draft pick that San Jose turned into Logan Couture for franchise savior Vesa Toskala era, and the Tuuka Rask for franchise savior Andrew Raycroft era, and the Burke whiffed on the Sedin twins but at least he signed franchise savior Jonas Gustavsson! era—Leafs fans are deserving of a reason to celebrate.

One way or another, it’s unlikely this fluky series is going to translate into a winning future for Toronto's blue and white. That would require them to actually figure out what their winning formula is, and with Randy Carlyle in charge, I don't  think that's likely. If he keeps screwing around next season with guys on the top-pairing like Kostka and Holzer, while players like Jake Gardiner, Clarke MacArthur and Matt Frattin are press box regulars: the Leafs are boned. Just like they probably will be in game 7.

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