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Blue Jays Mailbag: Baseball Bloodlines, Osuna's Salary, the Future in CF

Do bloodlines inflate a prospect's value, is Pillar the answer in center field, and does Toronto need more speed? Andrew Stoeten answers those questions and more.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the Futures Game. Photo by Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Andrew Stoeten answers your questions in our Blue Jays Mailbag, which runs weekly at VICE Sports. You can send him questions at stoeten@gmail.com, and follow him on Twitter.

The Blue Jays' season is still going. I couldn't blame you for having tuned out a while ago, but the team is still theoretically in it, and, therefore, still capable of kicking us in our guts, the way that they did against Houston on Sunday.

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But who wants to talk about that? Surely not I! And evidently not our fine mailbag readers, either, as we've got a fresh batch of questions that mostly look forward to 2018—or, at the very least, to possible August trades.

A legitimate playoff race sure would be more fun, but we can make do! So let's do it!

If you have a Blue Jays question you'd like me to tackle for next week, be sure to send it to stoeten@gmail.com. As always, I have not read any of Griff's answers.

For what Osuna could bring back this offseason vs. how expensive (saves) he is going to get, do you think it's worth dealing him?
Adam

I'm definitely of the mind that a great closer is worth more to an elite team than he is to one a tier or two below that, which seems to be where the Blue Jays are destined to end up in 2018. So I'd absolutely explore trading him—though the team's best shot to really cash in on him may have been at the trade deadline that just passed, especially with the way he's looked since then. But there are two things, in particular, that give me pause about this idea.



One is that the Jays simply aren't as far away from being good as it feels. Twitter's @James_in_to pointed out on Monday that the Jays have lost five games leading with two outs in the 9th—and if they'd recorded those five outs they would be 57-54 and tied for the wild card. With the right tweaks—and there are obvious places they're not getting value this year (right field and second base)—they can still be pretty good.

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The other is the fact that Osuna isn't due to get that expensive. He'll pass through arbitration for the first time this winter. The record contract for a first-time-eligible reliever, according to MLB Trade Rumors, still belongs to Jonathan Papelbon, who made $6.5 million in 2009 on the back of his outstanding first three seasons in the big leagues. Osuna has been outstanding, especially in the areas that get relievers paid in arbitration, picking up 84 saves and pitching to a 2.84 ERA in his first three seasons. But Papelbon went to arbitration for the first time with 113 saves and a 1.70 ERA. Osuna should come in lower than that.

The record for a second pass through arbitration also belongs to Papelbon, who went up to $9.35 million in 2010 after a 38-save 2009 season. But he faltered slightly that season (he still had plenty of saves, but his ERA jumped to 3.90), and doesn't hold the record for a third-time-eligible reliever. That goes to O's closer Zach Britton, who after his incredible 2016 season was left on the bench in the wild-card game by Buck Showalter LOLOLOLOL made $11.4 million this year.

Osuna will start getting paid, but nothing the deep-pocketed Blue Jays can't afford. Photo by Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

That's not even all that expensive, and those are records Osuna almost certainly won't quite reach.

More importantly, the Jays should never be trading a player because of how expensive he's going to get. If a trade presented itself that would make the team better, sure. But moving him out of fear of the cost? This is Toronto, not Tampa Bay.

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If the Jays were to fill LF, RF, and one SP spot internally (Biagini, Hernandez, Pearce, Zeke/Smith). Where could the 30M go?
Adrian

Giancarlo?

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Do bloodlines artificially inflate prospect value? Bo Bichette and Vlad Jr. are media darlings, how much do their last names feed that?
Neel

Honestly? I don't think very much.

I mean, I'm sure there's an element with Vlad Jr. that has fueled hype among fans, because of who Vlad Sr. was in this country, and how much Vladito reminds us of his pop, physically (though Jr. actually controls the hell out of the strike zone, rather than relying on his ability to barrel pitches off a bounce). But, no disrespect to a guy who had a really nice career, I don't think people are in a lather about Bichette because he's the son of Dante.

Bo Bichette at last month's Futures Game. Photo by Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Jays have Cavan Biggio in the system, and now Kacy Clemens, who despite their Hall of Fame names don't get a fraction of the hype the other two do. That's because they haven't done anything to deserve it.

The reason you hear so much about Guerrero and Bichette is that they're really, really, really good. The same reason you heard about Travis Snider as a prospect, or Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard, or Brett Lawrie, or all the other much-hyped prospects we've heard of through the years (Kyle Drabek was hyped on merit, too—merit at the time, that is). Relax and enjoy it.

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Is Kevin Pillar the answer at CF with Alford and possibly Pompey coming up soon, or even a FA replacement?
Craig

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The Jays will need to see Pompey and Alford healthy first before they can make that determination (and I think it's still probably a little early to be putting Alford in the bigs, since he missed so much development time during his college football career, and really was only promoted to the big leagues because of guys getting injured ahead of him on the depth chart). But yeah… Pillar…

April and early May sure were great months for Kevin Pillar, weren't they? Since then, though, it's been awful having to watch him come to the plate every day. And if that feels harsh, a quick perusal of his numbers should set you straight.

Since May 20, the day he returned from his suspension for using a homophobic slur, Pillar has slashed .206/.256/.328. That's good for a wRC+ of just 52. Over the last two calendar years, among the 125 players to have come to the plate at least 1000 times, Pillar's wRC+ of 87 ranks 120th.

It's been a rough ride for Pillar after his hot start. Photo by Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

You can live with a wRC+ in the 90 range when you get the kind of value Pillar provided on the base paths and in the outfield in 2015 and 2016, but that just hasn't been the case for him this year. He's been a run below average on the bases this year—he was two runs above last year and eight runs above in 2015—and defensively he's been merely very good, as opposed to elite-elite-elite. His UZR in center field this season is 6.2, as compared to 21.4 last year, and 14 the year before that.

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I must admit, it's hard to envision someone like Pompey or Alford, or anybody, being much worse than this version of Pillar—even though the glove has brought him up to 1.3 WAR on the season—but that seems to me like an issue the club would prefer to have those players force, rather than simply handing them the job and ditching the incumbent. The bar isn't exactly set high, so it's entirely possible we could see those guys—or Teoscar Hernandez—take Pillar's job at some point next season. I'd be surprised if they went another way before that, though. Unless some team actually wanted to give them something good for him.

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The rumours of Dee Gordon had me excited. We need team speed badly. Do you see the Jays getting faster for next season?
That Far Cry Guy

Good Lord. For the life of me, I will never understand Blue Jays fans and their obsession with speed. Don't get me wrong, it's certainly a useful element of the game—I'm not saying avoid players who might steal a few more bases and beat out a few more double plays than the guys currently on the Jays are capable of—but let's not act like it's a fucking panacea. The Jays need more good players, not more fast ones.


WATCH: VICE Sports Meets Dee Gordon


If being fast is part of what makes someone good—like Gordon—then that's great, but there's no need to elevate it into some kind of extra special force out there on the diamond. We know pretty well what Gordon's speed is worth—FanGraphs' all encompassing baserunning metric, BsR, pegs him at 6.6 runs above average this season. Impressively, that's the third-best mark in the league. But it only can do so much, as their explainer on the stat tells us:

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BsR is like any other run value statistic available on FanGraphs in that it tells you the number of runs above or below average a player is at that particular aspect of the game. As usual, zero is league average for that particular year and every nine or ten runs above or below average is equal to about one win.

Gordon's speed on the basepaths has been worth less than a win this season. His speed bleeds into his athleticism as a defender, and that's helped make him even more valuable. But this stuff—especially at second base or in left field—can only go so far. Being able to hit the baseball is still pretty important. And the disruptive powers speedsters wield when they're on base isn't as significant as you think—they often end up distracting the hitters behind them as much as they do the opposing pitcher, or more.

Sure, in a perfect world, you'd like a Mike Trout at every position: fast, athletic, with an otherworldly bat. In reality, teams have to make compromises. And if that means compromising speed for the ability to hit because it means getting a better player overall—like when the Jays, who themselves admit their long-term aim is to get younger and more athletic, still went and brought in Steve Pearce and Kendrys Morales—that's completely fine.

That's three solid starts in a row now for Marco! Can we confidently say his struggles seem to be behind him now?
Kate

The fact that he did so well against a really strong Houston lineup over the weekend certainly seems to bode well. It certainly bodes much better (if we're talking about boding) than pitching well against the A's and the White Sox did.

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I'm not sure that three starts is enough to say that he's back to being "Good Marco," but I'd imagine that there are teams still looking to add some starting pitching that have taken notice. His next three starts are likely to be against the Yankees, Rays, and Cubs. Those should be telling.

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Does Estrada have more value as an August trade chip or a buy low signing for the Jays? Leemo
Legs

Why not both?

Estrada will have something to play for down the stretch even if the Blue Jays don't. Photo by Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

I mean, yes, there's a chance that Estrada pitches his free agent value back up over the next couple of months—especially if he does it after being moved to a contender and into the playoffs. But he'll still look like exactly the kind of mid-tier veteran starter with upside beyond his likely salary that the Jays will be targeting this winter.

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If Marco Estrada is a WWE Champion who wins a Blue Jays Royal Rumble?
Jordan

This is obviously a reference to this picture of Estrada holding the WWE title belt at ringside Monday night at the Air Canada Centre. It's actually a pretty interesting question, because the guy who would be the odds-on favourite based solely on the Jays' listed heights and weights would be Joe Biagini, who at 6'5" is tied for the tallest player on the club, and at 240 pounds, outweighs Kendrys Morales (who is only 6'1") by 15 pounds, and the 6'4" Justin Smoak by 20. Of course, height and weight alone do not make a Royal Rumble champion (plus, Biagini is not technically a Blue Jay at the moment), but he'd be hard as hell to get out of the ring, even if he didn't particularly want to be there.