Anthony Lynn Beat the Odds, But Can He Beat the AFC East?

Longtime NFL position coach Anthony Lynn is finally on the fast track to a head-coaching job—but that track runs straight toward the edge of a cliff.

Last week, after starting the season 0-2, the Buffalo Bills fired offensive coordinator Greg Roman and named Lynn as his replacement. After 13 seasons as a running backs coach, and years of buzz about his head-coach potential, Lynn is getting his first real shot at proving he has what it takes to reach the top.

Friday's news was notable for another reason, beyond what it means for Buffalo going forward. In a league where roughly 68.7 percent of the athletes on the field are black, the pipeline to the top coaching jobs is still overwhelmingly white. Coming into this season, 80 of 85 NFL offensive coordinators, quarterbacks coaches, and quality-control assistants—and 21 of 32 defensive coordinators—were white, as ESPN'S Mike Sando reported in July. With Lynn, who is black, joining those ranks, there are now "only" 79.

These positions represent nearly the only path to becoming a head coach: over the past two decades, 94 percent of NFL skipper hires were either coordinators or already head coaches somewhere else. The NFL implemented the Rooney Rule in 2003, requiring teams to interview minority candidates for high-level positions, but barriers remain. In fact, per Sando's report, the league appears to have gone backward in recent years: seven first-time coaches of color were hired between 2007 and 2011, but only one (Todd Bowles) was hired from 2012 to 2016.

Many black former players become position coaches but can't get on the coordinator-to-head-coach train unless they're trusted with the quarterbacks. And they're almost never trusted with the quarterbacks—all 37 assistants with the word "quarterback" in their titles currently are white.

(Part of this is due to another pipeline issue: how few black quarterbacks there have been in the NFL. While black players are no longer barred from the position based on overtly racist tropes about their intelligence and leadership skills, as they were decades ago, there are still barriers here, too, from unconscious biases shaping how young QBs are developed to access to resources like private coaching and elite skills camps. It shows on the field—on Thursday, Jacoby Brissett made history as the first black quarterback to start for the New England Patriots; the New York Giants still haven't fielded a black starting quarterback—and, in turn, on coaching staffs.)

It's hard enough for anyone, regardless of race, to climb the NFL coaching ladder, and Lynn beat incredible odds to reach the next rung. So how did he get here, and given that he's taking over a 0-2 Bills squad in complete disarray, how long can he last?

In Lynn's six years as an NFL special-teamer and reserve running back, he started just one game; 24 of his 28 career carries came in that solitary start. He transitioned into coaching as soon as his playing days were over, moving from the Denver Broncos' roster to a special-teams assistant position in 2000.

In 2003, he was hired by Jack Del Rio to coach the Jacksonville Jaguars' running backs. With Fred Taylor in the backfield, the Jags ranked 8th in rushing that year. In 2005, Lynn left to join Bill Parcells in Dallas; he held the same position there, keeping Marion Barber and Julius Jones productive despite splitting carries on a pass-first offense. After Parcells' retirement, Lynn took the same position with the Cleveland Browns; after Romeo Crennel's firing, Lynn took the same position with the New York Jets.

It was at this last stop Lynn stayed the longest; his charges, from probable future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson to notorious bust Joe McKnight, were perennially one of the top units in the NFL. It's no wonder head coach Rex Ryan brought Lynn along to Buffalo, and added the title of assistant head coach to his positional duties.

"He's one of our guys who've really been prepared for years," John Wooten told VICE Sports. Wooten is chairman of the Fritz Pollard Alliance, an organization that promotes diversity and equality of job opportunities in NFL coaching, scouting and front office staffs. "Last year, he had interviews at a couple of places for a head coach opportunity. We certainly think he has the knowledge, the skill level, the offensive mind [to succeed]."

Here's where the Rooney Rule succeeds, despite criticism from Hall of Fame Tony Dungy and others that it lets teams get away with mere token interviews. Whether Lynn was or wasn't seriously considered for those positions, participating in those interviews puts him in front of the right people, gets his name on the right lists, and prepares him for the time when a real chance to move up comes along.

"Anthony and I talked the other day," Wooten said. "He's very excited about the opportunity. He's worked hard, he's been an assistant head coach, he's been involved in the running of the offense. We're just going to have to pull hard for him." Those hoping Lynn can continue to buck the backwards trend of NFL coaching hires will have to pull hard indeed; the 0-2 Bills appear to be in dire straits.

"It's a tough situation," Wooten admitted. Chris Brown of the Bills' official site made a lengthy to-do list for Lynn to succeed where Roman failed: Let playmakers make plays, maximize quarterback Tyrod Taylor, achieve balance on an offense that currently ranks last in pass attempts, and run the offense at different tempos. As Brown notes, Lynn is essentially stuck with Roman's playbook; he'll have to achieve all that with little more than changes in game-planning and play-calling.

"Overall, I know his mindset is that he can figure it out, knowing he has the relationship he has with the team and front office," Wooten said. "I think he has to improve it, or the whole group could be gone!"

This is the enormous challenge facing Lynn: He has 14 games to succeed where his predecessor—who was the highest-paid offensive coordinator in the NFL—failed. He has 14 games to either save the job of every coach in Buffalo, or make a case to the rest of the league that he's more than just a running backs coach. How can he pull it off?

"Winning," Wooten said. "Winning heals all those things. [The Bills] have been teetering here and teetering there; they could as easily be 2-0 as 0-2. But that's how they keep score in this league, by whether you win or lose."

Of course, Lynn has no control over Ryan's defense, which was more to blame for the Bills' embarrassing Week 2 Thursday Night Football debacle. But excuses and finger-pointing won't get Lynn anywhere. To stake his claim as a long-term coordinator and potential head coach, he'll have to put up points and win ballgames. His first test comes on Sunday against the brutal Arizona Cardinals defense, who forced Jameis Winston into five turnovers in a 40-7 Week 2 blowout.

Wooten thinks Lynn can do it.

"We have great confidence in him," Wooten said. "We've had him on our list for a long time as [a potential] offensive coordinator or head coach, and this is that opportunity." Lynn's been working the same job for 13 years to get this chance. The NFL is a tough league. If he doesn't achieve the all-but-impossible this season, he may never get another one.

But the stakes are even higher than that. The NFL is a copycat league; successes and failures on one team are repeated everywhere. If Lynn makes a real impact, men like Shawn Jefferson and Duce Staley might get more looks. If he fails to outperform Roman, doors that had been cracked open may slam shut.

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