Once Again, Somebody Has To Win the AFC South

Over time, things in the NFL are supposed to regress to the mean. The NFC East, for instance, was a laughingstock last season. This year, heading into Monday Night Football, every team in the division is over .500.

The AFC South somehow does not seem to work this way. For years, the division was a place for Peyton Manning to fatten up his record, and its ongoing mediocrity may be the only reason that Jeff Fisher isn't already the losingest coach in NFL history. And now, with Indianapolis stumbling to put talent around Andrew Luck, there's a case to be made that every team in this division should fire its head coach and/or general manager. Collectively, they are responsible for the worst NFL games to air in prime time this year: the Jaguars-Titans atrocity, and the persistent failures of Brock Osweiler against teams that are actually any good.

However, one of these teams is going to win the AFC South, and as such will get to host a playoff game. That's just how this all works out. The antiquated notion of divisions means that no matter how bad this particular concentration of teams plays over the rest of the season, one of them will be rewarded. Accepting that the universe is cold and cruel, and life is fundamentally unfair, let's take a closer look.

Houston Texans (5-3)

Playoff Odds per Football Outsiders (through Week 7): 33.5 percent to win division.

What does this team do well?: Despite losing J.J. Watt for the season, the Texans have a good pass defense. Jadeveon Clowney has been healthy enough to break out, and has gotten credit for nine hurries per charting by Sports Info Solutions—leaving him inside the league's top 20 on the season—and notching two sacks. The secondary can't really tackle outside of Kareem Jackson, but Houston has gotten enough from bit players like A.J. Bouye to survive a slew of injuries in the secondary.

And uh … what else does this team do?: Waste our time, mostly. The Texans are dead last in offensive DVOA. They scored just 20 points against the Detroit Lions, last place in defensive DVOA, despite the team being without ace cornerback Darius Slay. Brock Osweiler has been a complete and utter debacle, and has looked visibly shaky in the pocket with or without pressure. This offense creates no easy yards. Osweiler has been bad, yes, but some of the blame has to fall on head coach Bill O'Brien, who still seems to have no answer to being forced off his primary method of moving the ball.

Tennessee Titans (4-4)

Playoff Odds per Football Outsiders (through Week 7): 23.9 percent to win division.

What does this team do well?: In theory, Exotic Smashmouth offense has produced some pretty big numbers, as the Titans entered Sunday leading the NFL in rushing yards. In actuality, as my esteemed colleague Tom Gower has posited, the numbers may be less impressive than they seem on the surface. The defense is not incredibly talented, but has played well so far. But both the offense and the defense may appear better than they actually are because…

And uh … what else does this team do? The Titans have played the weakest schedule in the NFL! They've played the Miami Dolphins, the Cleveland Browns, and every other AFC South team once. They got to play the Minnesota Vikings before Sam Bradford showed up. The only other teams they've played that are above .500 are the Texans, who somehow threw for 259 yards on them, and the Oakland Raiders. They fired their special teams coach midway through the season, and boast the worst special teams DVOA in the NFL. The fact that they could possibly coast to a division title playing 1990s football against a bad schedule tells you everything you need to know about the rest of this division.

Indianapolis Colts (3-5)

Playoff Odds per Football Outsiders (through Week 7): 22.6 percent to win division.

What does this team do well?: Luck is still a good quarterback, even if this year has been all about finding out he's not enough all on his own. T.Y. Hilton is a No. 1 wide receiver. When healthy, Donte Moncrief and Dwayne Allen help these guys form a good long-term skill position core. Whether you want to blame Luck's struggles on play calling or his own internal clock being slow, he's not the actual problem. It's not his fault the Colts have no speed or explosiveness in the backfield, nor any real depth to help out when their best players get banged up. Adam Vinatieri is still a good kicker, and ace punter Pat McAfee is a field position game-changer for the Colts.

And uh … what else does this team do? People have blamed Luck's contract for holding the team back, which is pretty much like the NFL blaming declining ratings on the presidential election. It sounds like it could be true, but the problem is much deeper and more complex. The Colts have one of the worst defenses in the league. They allowed Nick Foles to come off the bench and pass for 223 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. Indianapolis has devoted a combined $14.3 million in cap space to Trent Cole, Robert Mathis, and Erik Walden this year, and they have six quarterback hurries between the three of themon the season. The coaching staff is abysmal, and appears focused on minimizing Luck's talents when they're not busy bungling the clock or putting their defense on the field to lose the game late. But sure, it's all Luck's fault.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)

Playoff Odds per Football Outsiders (through Week 7): 19.9 percent to win division.

What does this team do well?: Like the Texans, the pass defense has actually been pretty good this year! Jalen Ramsey's rookie year has been punctuated by him running his mouth, but Jacksonville's pass rush has been doing the heavy lifting. Rookie Yannick Ngakoue has four sacks and five hurries, and Malik Jackson has provided interior pressure. The problem is…

And uh … what else does this team do?: Not only is this team bad at run defense—as evidenced by the Titans running roughshod over them on Thursday—they're bad at individual elements of pass defense. In particular, they struggle every time any offense can single up a real receiving threat on ancient linebacker Paul Posluszny or the unathletic Dan Skuta. Then there's the offense. From the outside, it's hard to tell if Blake Bortles' lack of development is a coaching problem or a Bortles problem. The Jaguars limit him as much as possible when they have a lead, afraid that he'll blow it. At the same time, whenever they open up the offense and hit garbage time, Bortles looks much more comfortable. They just fired their offensive coordinator after watching garbage time Bortles surface again on Thursday. Head coach Gus Bradley is good at encouraging and clapping, but makes no real in-game adjustments and no backup plan for "establishing the run."

And yet, if you squint, are the Jags really much different from the Texans? The Texans have an empirically better pass defense, but they are cut from the same cloth. Neither team can utilize ace wideouts DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson, because neither team makes the offense easy. The Jaguars aren't as successful running the football.

Truth be told, none of the AFC South's teams deserve a playoff berth. In all likelihood, the club that wins the division will be walking into the same sort of 30-0 postseason ass-kicking the Texans took from the Kansas City Chiefs last year. But the NFL mandates six teams make the playoffs, which means one of these teams will get a chance to flaunt their massive weaknesses on the big stage. I suppose you could consider that its own sort of regression.

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