The Raptors' Offense and the Jonas Valanciunas Conundrum

This article originally appeared on VICE Sports Canada, and is also part of VICE Sports' 2016 NBA Playoffs coverage.

The Toronto Raptors' offense was great in the regular season. This is an important thing to remember when you watch them in the playoffs, as halfcourt possession after halfcourt possession wilts in the face of changed circumstances. Really: This team has an effective attack, or at least it used to.

Through the first nine games of this uncomfortable journey, the Raptors have scored 97.3 points per 100 possessions. That is the fifth lowest of any team in the playoffs, and the lowest of any team still alive. That mark would have placed Toronto second from the bottom in the regular season, ahead of only the 76ers and directly behind the Lakers. Those teams were very bad.

The Raptors won 96-92 in overtime Thursday, the second illogical game in a row to start this mess of a series. They did many things well, particularly on the defensive end, even though the Heat shot 49 percent. The struggles are coming on the other end.

"We are not getting a lot of movement. That is one of the issues," Raptors coach Dwane Casey said. "Pick and rolls, everyone is standing. It has been hitting us in the third quarter. Pace and tempo have been pretty good in the first half but (in the) third quarter it got stagnant. We (have) got to get the ball moving a little more which also will help our shooting rhythm."

Whenever the word "stagnant" comes up, the conversation turns to two men above all: Casey and DeMar DeRozan. Indeed, DeRozan has taken tight grasp of the last three games in the third quarter, and with a brief exception in the final contest against Indiana, it has turned out poorly. Those times usually correspond with Kyle Lowry on the bench. This regular season has proven, with zero doubt, that Lowry—even this off-brand version of the all-star—is the most important player on the roster. In the six minutes he did not play, the Raptors were outscored by six points. Single game plus-minus can be deceiving, but this has been a trend all playoffs long.

On Thursday, the DeRozan-takeover minutes also came without Jonas Valanciunas on the floor. And that was not a coincidence. Not to absolve DeRozan of responsibility, because he took some irresponsible shots in Game 2, but he has limited options in some of Casey's lineups. That, however, does not give DeRozan and his teammates an excuse to ignore Valanciunas when he's in the game.

Valanciunas was the best player on the floor as the Raptors tied up the series, scoring 15 points, grabbing 12 rebounds and finishing with a game-high plus-17.

"He's a man-child down there," DeMarre Carroll said.

"We can always include him more," Lowry said. "But tonight it was just one of those games where he was setting great screens. He didn't try to ask for the ball, he just went and did it. And that's just the growth in him. Some games it's not for him to get plays called for him. But when he did get some plays called for him, he made some plays. He had some great passes, some kickouts, re-posts. He was really, like (DeRozan) said, he was hungry tonight."

Should the Raptors ignore Valanciunas if he is not demanding the ball in the post, though? Shouldn't they insist that he insist on it when the offense is working this poorly with him on the margins?

Well, let's rewind a bit, because it's not quite that simple (although it is getting simpler by the game). How to best involve Valanciunas has been a topic of debate for quite some time. There is a camp that says the Raptors should throw the ball into Valanciunas in the post 15 or 20 times a game, just to see what happens. When he did get the ball down low, Valanciunas was very effective. He sold Hassan Whiteside on his go-to hook shot in the first half, and when the Heat big man bit, he went under for the easy scoop.

Valanciunas's post touches, however, were in the single digits, and there were reasons for that beyond Lowry and DeRozan taking 46 field goals to Valanciunas's nine: He is not particularly good at establishing post position. On the one play the Raptors did throw it to Valanciunas when he had not earned good position, he was forced to his weak hand, and Whiteside devoured his shot.

"Whiteside is a force down there," Casey said. "They're doing a good job on hitting him, making sure they push him off his sweet spot."

And then there are those who think Valanciunas's role is fine as is. Let him set screens and go rebound the Raptors misses (and oh, there are misses to rebound). Valanciunas had a game-high six offensive rebounds, including two massive ones in the final four minutes of regulation that led to four crucial points.

The screen-and-roll opportunities have not been there for Valanciunas, at least compared to the Indiana series. A lot of that comes down to the Heat practically begging Lowry to shoot, sagging off of the guard when Valanciunas dives to the rim. If Lowry buries those shots—and he hit two massive jumpers after being freed up by a combination of Valanciunas's picks and Miami's choices in the fourth quarter—those opportunities should start to reappear.

"It's big. You can honestly see who's the dominant big out there when it comes to rebounding, scoring," DeRozan said. "And JV is doing a lot for us. We need him to continue to keep doing it. It's great."

It is great, but it could probably be greater. The Raptors' whole those-shots-will-fall-eventually attitude is commendable from a confidence standpoint, but there is undeniable evidence that what worked in January is no longer working in April and May. That does not mean that they need to dump the ball into Valanciunas three times as often as they are now, because Valanciunas's passing and positioning will be exposed. Balance is crucial.

They need to remember that what they are doing right now, though, is also being exposed. Even a postseason win should not cover that up.