Here's What the 7.8 Earthquake Actually Did to New Zealand

This fault rupture ripping apart farmland near Kaikoura is 30 km long. Video by GNS via.

In two minutes of irresistible power, millions of tonnes of solid bedrock and masonry was shaken, rattled and rolled, and if the finer details of why it happened remain murky, one thing is definite: the map of New Zealand needs a do-over.

New sections of coastland have emerged from the sea, with one near Kaikoura having risen an incredible 5.5 metres, new valleys—actually, freshly sheared cracks—are in need of names, and if cities were moved, the South Island is now two metres closer to the North.

No wonder scientists around the world are focussing on what is already considered to be one of the most complex earthquakes ever recorded on land. For the most part this is because the magnitude 7.8 event was actually two earthquakes that ripped along at least six different (including some previously unknown) fault lines, snowballing in intensity as it dominoed northwards from Hanmer Springs, past Wellington and out to sea. If that wasn't enough it ended with one more surprise by triggering a 4.1 metre tsunami no-one thought likely. It only caused limited damage which is just as well because the alert system didn't work.

When it was done, two people had been killed, at least 7000 square kilometres of land had been impacted, and given more than 100,000 landslips, major highways were destroyed, towns isolated and rivers dammed. The damage to inner city Wellington was enough for the government and council to shut it down so that buildings could be inspected. Several were sufficiently affected, including some modern builds constructed to full earthquake-proof specifications, to require demolition.

But if the infrastructural clean up cost is estimated at $12 billion for roads, bridges and building stock, the effect on the environment is more difficult to gauge. Mountainsides have tumbled into waterways and the resulting sediment will clog rivers and damage plant and animal life as it's flushed out to sea. Untold numbers of sea creatures, from krill to molluscs and crustaceans, were also left gasping for water as entire ecosystems were pushed into the air. Their loss will have a huge impact on the seafood industry and has led to a temporary ban on collecting crayfish, seaweed and shellfish along a 100 km stretch of coastline as well as an emergency $2 million scientific investigation into the damage that has been wrought.

And it isn't over yet. In the seven days following the November 14 quake there were 4060 aftershocks and they remain ongoing. GeoNet, a collaborative information service created by the Earthquake Commission and GNS Science, has outlined three scenarios for how things will play out. The least likely is that the sequence of quakes will trigger an even larger event of M8.0 or more. Unlikely, sure, but there's a kicker says GeoNet: "Although it is still very unlikely, the chances of this occurring have increased since before the M7.8 earthquake."

Slightly more likely is scenario two, a earthquake of between M7.0 and M7.8, either on- or off-shore, which will cause severe shaking and a possible tsunami. This was the pattern that followed the Hastings Earthquake in 1931.

Either way, scenario one is a definite. This one features a string of aftershocks, potentially as high as M6.9, over the next 30 days and throughout the affected areas, although they should diminish in frequency over time as has happened in Christchurch.

The message then is this: The ride ain't over yet.