What Does the UN Ruling on Arbitrary Detention Mean for Julian Assange?

The BBC reports that a United Nations panel has ruled that Wikileaks founder Julian Assange's prolonged confinement to the London Ecuadorian embassy amounts to him being "arbitrarily detained."

Since 2012, Assange has been holed up in the embassy, claiming that if arrested and extradited to Sweden to face charges of sexual assault (which he denies), he would be sent to the US as part of an investigation into Wikileaks. In 2014, he complained to the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention about his situation.

A spokesperson for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), which oversees the panel that has been investigating Assange's 2014 complaint, would not confirm the BBC's report.

"They're not going to comment on anything the BBC has said. There is going to be nothing public until tomorrow, 11 AM," the spokesperson told Motherboard in a phone call.

But even if the UN panel confirms the ruling tomorrow, what does this mean for Assange?

On Thursday, the Wikileaks Twitter account published a statement from Assange stating that if the UN's Working Group on Arbitrary Detention did not rule in his favour, he would exit the embassy and accept arrest, "as there is no meaningful prospect of further appeal." However, if the panel swayed the other way, Assange wrote that he expected the return of his passport "and the termination of further attempts to arrest me."

Assange: I will accept arrest by British police on Friday if UN rules against me. More info: https://t.co/Mb6gXlz7QS pic.twitter.com/mffVsqKj5w
— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) February 4, 2016

However, it's important to remember that the ruling by the UN's Working Group on Arbitrary Detention is not legally binding, meaning that the UK does not necessarily have to act upon the panel's decision.

"It's a recommendation," the OHCHR spokesperson told Motherboard. "It's an opinion."

"It's not binding in itself. But it's based on binding, international law," she continued. "We do expect that countries will carefully review what the Working Group is saying."

Other countries have seemingly ignored UN opinions on detention in the past. In April 2015, the same working group ruled that the Senegal detention of Karim Wade, a former Minister of State for International Cooperation, was arbitrary. Just last week, the panel released a statement maintaining that position. Wade, however, remains in prison, serving serving a six-year prison sentence for corruption.

For years, police from London's Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) visibly stood guard outside the embassy Assange has been staying in, ready to arrest the Wikileaks founder if he left. But in October of last year, after raking up a cost of at least £11.1 million (around $16.1 million) for keeping the building under constant watch, the police decreased the amount of surveillance, as the MPS said in a statement that it was "no longer proportionate to commit officers to a permanent presence."

However, the statement made it clear that the police would still arrest Assange if he stepped out of the door.

Contacted today, a spokesperson for the MPS told Motherboard that "At this stage, our statement hasn't changed from the one that was available on our website from October. We're not commenting further at this point."

Whether the panel's opinion on Assange's case will cause the UK police to change their approach remains to be seen: the decision to arrest Assange or not if he leaves the embassy will ultimately be made by the UK authorities.

The OHCHR will be releasing a public statement, along with their legal opinion, on Friday morning.